NSW 2011: Legislative Council

22

At the latest point in the count in the Legislative Council, the figures for the main contenders are:

  • Liberal/National – 10.66 quotas
  • Labor – 5.35
  • Greens – 2.42
  • Shooters and Fishers – 0.81
  • Christian Democrat – 0.68
  • Pauline Hanson – 0.41

This would produce a result of 19 Coalition, 14 Labor, 5 Greens, 2 Shooters and 2 Christian Democrats.

At the moment, the key contest is between third Greens candidate Jeremy Buckingham (currently on 0.42 quotas), sixth Labor candidate Andrew Ferguson (0.35) and Pauline Hanson (0.41). Buckingham is currently leading, but not by a great deal.

While in the past preferences haven’t made a difference, the ALP preferenced the Greens on all of their how-to-votes at this election. If Buckingham stays ahead of Ferguson, then his preferences could flow to him to such an extent that he ends up safely elected.

While there are right-wing parties, I doubt anywhere near as much of a flow will go to Hanson. The eleventh Coalition candidate and the Shooters and CDP candidates are all well below a quota, and any right-wing preferences will likely flow to those candidates and not flow on to Hanson.

The bigger issue would be if Ferguson could overtake Buckingham. While preferences may flow from the Greens to Labor, it would be much less strong.

Below the line votes are yet to be counted, and they should favour the Greens.

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22 COMMENTS

  1. Below the line vote will include all Labor voters too disgusted to vote Roosendaal #1, and any voters following the leaflets both handed out on the day, and distributed via various union mailing lists urging people to vote #1 Andrew Ferguson.
    Won’t be massive. But if its even a thousand it could matter.

  2. Below the line votes will favour the Greens over Labor, so it’s not all that likely Ferguson will overtake Buckingham. However, in 2003, and in her Senate attempts, Hanson has done terrifyingly well below the line. Almost certainly btls will giver her a lead over Buckingham, probably of the order of 10,000 votes. The question will then be what proportion of Labor voters bothered to give a preference.

  3. What exactly is meant by favour?
    In 2007 Labor got more below the line primary votes than Greens, and given the aforementioned campaign this time around for Ferguson I think they may do so again despite the drop in vote. (source http://office.elections.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/84782/LC_2007_Summary_First_Pref.pdf)
    If by favour you mean Greens BTL % is higher than their ATL % yeah, but given we’re talking about that last quota the absolute votes matter most. Labor only needs 1.3ish times as many votes as Greens to be overall ahead. I think that’s achievable.
    If by favour you mean that Greens will do better through BTL preferences sure, but that’s hardly a BTL/ATL distinction apart from the fact that less BTLs will exhaust.
    I’m not sure why “BTL will favour Greens” is said with such certainty.

    I think Ferguson will gain vs Buckingham in BTLs, through both the personal vote they each receive, and through the total BTL votes each party receives. But it won’t be anywhere near the 10,000 or so he’s currently behind. Mind you despite my Labor leanings is probably a good thing. With the threat of Pauline there, it’s better for Buckingham to be secure with ALP prefs, then for AF to be edged by Hanson with most Greens exhausting.
    At my booth almost 1/2 of the Labor LC ballots seemed to be going into the RATL pile, you’d have to think the overwhelming majority of them did Labor 1 Greens 2 as per the HTV, esp considering no other RATL pile had more than a handful of ballots.

    Oh and I don’t see Pauline getting a 10,000 gain on Green BTL.

  4. The Labor HTVs said Labor 1 Green too, but the Greens failed (and I mean that) to recipricate. If Hanson gets elected over Ferguson, or even gets close, I hope that the Greens have a long hard look at that decision.

  5. Hanson .001 quotas behind Greens, still counting group votes. That’s only a hundred or so. She’ll pull ahead with below the line votes. Greens need to stay ahead of Labor, current gap is 5,000.

    Now I look again and it’s back out to .005. Still too close.

  6. By favour I mean get a higher proportion than in above the lines. The Greens always get a higher proportion of their votes below the line than either Labor or the Coalition, and I’d bet my bottom dollar, Ferguson campaign or not, that this will happen again.

    This is important. As the below the line votes are added quota will rise. Labor need 24% of the below the lines just to stay in the same spot, where as the Greens only need 11%. Labor and the Greens will probably get roughly equal amounts (lets say 16%), so the Greens average will rise, and the Labor average will fall when the below the lines are added.

    Consequently, unless Labor gets a huge surge on the remaining absentee/postal votes, which I doubt will happen, they’ll be behind Ferguson will be behind Buckingham. I’d say there is a more than 90% chance of that happening.

    However, given that Hanson will probably get more than 10% of the below the lines, her average will rise, and rise by more than the Greens, so she’ll be ahead of Buckingham. It’s almost certainly going to come down to a question of whether enough preferences from Labor, Socialist Alliance, Democrats etc come to the Greens to have him overtake Hanson. Almost certainly most of the people from those tickets who do preference will go to Buckingham, but the question is whether enough will preference rather than exhaust to enable him to beat Hanson.

    There’s another scenario no one seems to be considering. Since Liberals will only get about 20% of the below the lines, their total vote will fall, and it’s just possible it will fall enough that both Buckingham and Hanson could overtake them. Unlikely but not impossible.

  7. the reason it is a scenario that no one else is talking about is that we are wondering whether the Greens will overturn a .08 difference in quota.

    To get in front of the Liberals, Pauline will need to gain ..27 of a quota and the Greens need to gain .35

    That would means the Greens and Pauline must get about 110% of the BTLV, with a large ALP preference flow, that is not happening

  8. “Labor and the Greens will probably get roughly equal amounts (lets say 16%),”
    No reason to believe this will happen based on past results. As I posted on March 28 last election Labor got ~15k primaries BTL, Greens ~10k. I have given reasons why I believe Labor will hold that lead despite the drop in primaries. I don’t expect Greens to dramatically change their BTL

    “given that Hanson will probably get more than 10% of the below the lines”
    not gonig to happen

  9. I voted ATL 1. John Hatton, 2. ALP, 3. Pauline Hanson all the way up to 16. The Greens. From what i have listed where would my vote be at the end going to?

  10. Sorry, posted before finished, you can delete the first for tidyness.

    “Labor and the Greens will probably get roughly equal amounts (lets say 16%),”
    No reason to believe this will happen based on past results. As I posted on March 28 last election Labor got ~15k primaries BTL, Greens ~10k. I have given reasons why I believe Labor will hold that lead despite the drop in primaries. I don’t expect Greens to dramatically change their BTL vote.

    “Since Liberals will only get about 20% of the below the lines…..”
    Based on? They got more than 20% last time, why do you think they’ve dropped?
    You’ve given 20% to Libs, 16% each to Greens and Labor, 10% to Hanson. I do wonder where the other 40% is headed.

    “given that Hanson will probably get more than 10% of the below the lines”
    Again based on?

    As for whether % or absolute votes count, depends if you’re following ABC or the official count. Following the official numbers ALP will be, and during declared votes has been, gaining on Buckingham.
    Interestingly so far, for those looking at %s Hanson has been doing best on declared votes, getting almost 18% of her election night vote, Libs 2nd on 15.5%, Labor middle of the pack on 13.5% and Greens lagging on 11%.

  11. @Lopo – If Fergusson catched Buckingham (unlikely) your vote will stay there for AF vs Hanson for the last spot. If Buckingham stays ahead your vote will go to Hanson for the last count.

    (presuming of course your vote is selected for distribution)

  12. My guesses for each party’s btls are pretty rough, probably a bit low for the Coalition at least. However, I am confident of the following:

    * The ALP and Liberals will both get proportions below the line that are far below what they get above the line.
    * The Greens proportion of the below the lines will be with 5% of the ALP’s
    * Hanson (unfortunately) will get far more below the lines than above, at least 6% of the btls, and probably more than 10%.

    I haven’t been doing any scrutineering, and am not even in the state, but these are all what one would expect based on previous Legilsative Council and Senate votes.

  13. Buckingham is 3rd on the Green ticket. Ferguson is 6th on the ALP. They are the two who will be left in the contest from those tickets when it is down to the last few.

    Dovif, the NSWEC website says there are 161,000 below the lines and (non-blank) informals. That’s pretty much a full quota, and certainly wouldn’t require the Greens and Hanson to get 110% of them to overtake the Coaltion #11. Do you have some data on the proportion that are actually formal below the lines? (I admit the figure seems high).

    The Coalition has done well on the declaration votes added since I made the comment, so I in a sense it’s moot – it’s very unlikely that the 11th Coalition candidate will miss out. However, it’s not theoretically impossible on the data that is on the website, and before they added more declaration votes it was credible on the data that was there.

  14. The declaration votes added so far are almost all pre-poll and postal votes, which do tend to be stronger for conservatives. When I compiled the figures two hours ago pre-poll votes had been counted in 86 seats and postals in 72. The addition of mostly postal votes to the count today, a category which is weakest for the Greens, probably accounts for the relative drop in the Greens vote share. Absentee votes, which are strongest for the Greens, had only been added for 15 seats.

  15. Stephen L

    Currently based on the ABC Legislative council count

    The Liberals are 108,735 votes over 10 quota
    The Greens are 58,551 votes over 2 quota; and
    Pauline 64,673 votes

    For both the greens and Pauline to pass the Liberals they are going ot need 94,286 votes mote then the Liberals

    As I said it was never going to happen

  16. At time of compiling this info Labor was on 5.32 quotas, Greens 2.40 and Hanson 0.42.

    No postal votes have been counted in 7 seats: Bathurst, Baulkham Hills, Epping, Granville, Heffron, Lane Cove and Northern Tablelands.

    No pre-poll votes have been counted in 4 seats: Balmain, Bathurst, Murrumbidgee and Penrith.

    And no absentee votes have yet been counted in 31 seats: Albury, Balmain, Bankstown, Bathurst, Baulkham Hills, Cabramatta, Cessnock, Epping, Granville, Hawkesbury, Heathcote, Heffron, Keira, Ku-ring-gai, Londonderry, Macquarie Fields, Marrickville, Murray-Darling, Northern Tablelands, Penrith, Port Macquarie, Ryde, Shellharbour, Strathfield, Sydney, Vaucluse, Wagga Wagga, Wakehurst, Wollondilly, Wollongong and Wyong.

    That is not to say that all votes in those categories have been counted in all other seats, that is just the list of where no votes in those categories have yet been counted according to NSWEC website.

  17. So, Ferguson Stooge, with Hanson having got more than 17% of the below the line votes counted so far (coming from electorates in which she did worse than average above the line) are you going to revise your statement that Hanson getting more than 10% below the line is “not going to happen”?

    It looks like my mistake was to be too cautious.

    I also note that so far both the Greens and ALP are on 16%, although once more rural electorates are in both will probably drop a little.

    Easy conclusions to draw if one looked at past results, but yet another example of the ALP not bothering to learn from history.

    The other suggestion for which I was pilloried, that both the Greens and Hanson could overtake the Coaltion, has apparently slipped away. However, this is because it seems so many of the “other” votes are informal. If most of the votes in the “other” pile were formal, and they split the way the formal ones have, this would have been a very real possibility.

  18. Yep, it aint a democracy here in Australia.
    Preferences shouldnt exist.
    U vote for that person or group and thats that, no second chance
    of then directing votes, generally decided by the voted where the
    vote then goes, not the voter.
    So is a load of squid voting in Australia.

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