At the latest point in the count in the Legislative Council, the figures for the main contenders are:
- Liberal/National – 10.66 quotas
- Labor – 5.35
- Greens – 2.42
- Shooters and Fishers – 0.81
- Christian Democrat – 0.68
- Pauline Hanson – 0.41
This would produce a result of 19 Coalition, 14 Labor, 5 Greens, 2 Shooters and 2 Christian Democrats.
At the moment, the key contest is between third Greens candidate Jeremy Buckingham (currently on 0.42 quotas), sixth Labor candidate Andrew Ferguson (0.35) and Pauline Hanson (0.41). Buckingham is currently leading, but not by a great deal.
While in the past preferences haven’t made a difference, the ALP preferenced the Greens on all of their how-to-votes at this election. If Buckingham stays ahead of Ferguson, then his preferences could flow to him to such an extent that he ends up safely elected.
While there are right-wing parties, I doubt anywhere near as much of a flow will go to Hanson. The eleventh Coalition candidate and the Shooters and CDP candidates are all well below a quota, and any right-wing preferences will likely flow to those candidates and not flow on to Hanson.
The bigger issue would be if Ferguson could overtake Buckingham. While preferences may flow from the Greens to Labor, it would be much less strong.
Below the line votes are yet to be counted, and they should favour the Greens.