In a move right out of the Labor “how to win an election” textbook (just like most of the Bligh campaign), the Australian today features a story by Peter van Onselen reporting on leaked Labor polling showing large swings to the LNP that could topple the government:
Labor strategists are rushing campaign workers into the electorates under threat, even flying operatives in from interstate, in a last-minute attempt to turn around local fortunes.
Labor’s track polling was continuing last night. It is understood the internal polling shows a collapse in Greens preferences flowing Labor’s way as voters indicate their intention to take advantage of Queensland’s system of optional preferential voting by placing a “1″ next to the Green candidate without preferencing down the line.
Such a protest vote – the internal polling reveals the Green vote is more than 8 per cent – would hurt Labor candidates who rely on a steady flow of Greens preferences.
This is much in line with my predictions, but you have to always take these things with a grain of salt. I remember that in the 2005 Werriwa by-election a story leaked that the ALP was worried that, ala Cunningham, the seat would fall to the Greens. I polled 5.5%.
In other news, I’ve been hearing rumours of a possible LNP upset win in the heartland Labor seat of Brisbane Central, which could be borne out if the Greens vote holds up and, as reported above, the preferences largely exhaust. You heard it here first.
I seriously doubt Brisbane Central will go to the Liberals but if Labor cops a big enough hit on its primary it could go to the Greens. What are the demographics of the seat? Is it more of a Labor-Greens (like, say, Richmond or Marrickville) or a Labor-Liberal (South Melbourne, Paddington) type area?
Brisbane Central ALP incumbent has a much stronger profile than any other candidate, although won in a by-election in Oct 2007. Demographics are mixed- large influx of affluent voters, young families. still with the leftover hippies and druggies in New Farm, Kelvin Grove and high socioeconomic levels. Don’t expect an upset. I predict ALP with a relatively comfortable margin. Strong Greens turnout possible. Unable to vote in this electorate as it seems AEC never received my change of enrolment form.