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I’d have previously thought that Nicolette Boele would be the most vulnerable MP in 2028 due to the margin.
With the Liberals dumping Net Zero, she’ll hold.
I thought Nicolette Boele was vulnerable, at least on paper, because of the very thin margin. Also, Sussan Ley is more keen on winning teal seats and boosting women in the party than Peter Dutton was. The previous Lib candidate, Gisele Kapterian, came out in favour of net zero and contacted various party MPs, according to AFR yesterday.
CJ, maybe she’ll win the head to head contest vs Liberal by more than 26 votes, but perhaps she won’t make the last two.
Where, pray tell, does the Liberals expect to win seats opposing Net Zero that are not already attractive to the Nats? The demographic of an urban or suburban non Nat non Net Zero could fit in a lift. Andrew Hastie perhaps holds such a seat but he is already a Liberal.
I casually looked over the 34 seats that the Coalition lost from 2019 to 2025 and I am hard pressed to find more than a couple of seats that they need to win back that might improve their standing by pulling back from Net Zero. Yet it takes 15-20 off the table.
@Craig only Hunter. The remaining rural seats friendly to coal and gas are all held by the Coalition or Katter.
@High Street what makes you say this?
its not gonna be a coal and gas v renewables argument its gonna be a cheap power prices vs more expensive ones. are you seriously saying that people have been voting liberal over labor on climate policy? id wager most people concerned over net zero already vote agaisnt them
@John, that is where the right is mistaken, many Liberal voters support net zero and renewables.
That’s why we have the Teals.
Many Liberals see the nuclear argument as the path to Net Zero as they take the view that renewables alone won’t get them there. The Net Zero being the important part. The part the Nats won’t say is that the coal plants are wearing out so what replaces them? Gas? Only problem is that we are staring down a serious gas shortage on the East Coast.
@CJ many people don’t want to vote for the teals as they could end up helping Labor win government.
There could potentially be a new split in the Coalition with a new moderate party taking over as opposition. Moderate Liberals and Nationals united with teals even?
@CJ – because I can understand numbers and how votes are counted.