NSW redistribution stats released

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The next redistribution for NSW state electorates has just kicked off, with boundaries due to be redrawn for the 2023 state election.

The first stage of the process allows anyone to make submissions suggesting electoral boundaries, either making suggestions about a particular seat or the entire state. Suggestions are open from last Monday, 1 June, until 1 July.

The NSWEC has also published enrolment statistics for each electorate, and they point to some big population imbalances that will lead to some necessary shifts in electoral boundaries.

In particular, a series of outer suburban electorates are far above quota, and will require neighbouring seats to be adjusted, and likely the creation of one or two new seats in the area.

Electoral boundaries are required to be drawn so that every electorate is within 10% of the average enrolment as of the beginning of this process (based on March 2020 data), but also within 10% of the projected enrolment as of April 2023. Due to the nature of enrolment trends the variations from the quota tend to be bigger as of 2023, so that’s where I’ll focus my attention.

The following table breaks the state into ten regions: five in Sydney and five outside Sydney. It adds up the total variance in each region, which tells you something about which regions are consistently below quota or above quota. It is likely that most seats will require some change, but big imbalances across a region will require changes that will have knock-on effects across the state.

RegionSeats2020 variance2023 variance
Non-Sydney3918.219.1
Central Coast4-1.10.0
Hunter1015.821.4
Northern NSW9-0.2-0.2
South-East NSW823.626.3
Western NSW8-19.9-28.5
Sydney54-18.3-19.1
East & Inner West11-13.0-20.2
Northern Sydney11-24.2-44.1
South-West Sydney1125.841.1
St George-Sutherland6-16.0-26.0
Western Sydney159.130.1

The non-Sydney electorates are collectively about 19% of a quota above where they need to be. This is due to the Hunter and the South-East both being well over quota. This is partly cancelled out by the west of the state falling short of a quota. This will likely be resolved by moving some voters from a Hunter electorate into a Western NSW seat. It doesn’t seem likely the population shifts will be enough to justify abolishing a seat in the west of the state, as has happened at a number of recent redistributions.

At some point in southern Sydney it’s likely that a Sydney electorate will need to absorb some voters currently in a non-Sydney electorate, either in Sutherland or the Macarthur region.

There are some massive imbalances within Sydney. The whole of Western and South-Western Sydney are 71% over quota, while the eastern half of the city is 90% under quota. It seems likely that at least one new electorate will be created, likely in the Macarthur region, while one seat will be abolished, likely on the north shore. Indeed I suspect we may see two new seats created on the edge of Western Sydney.

The cause of this imbalance becomes clearer when you look at individual seats. Two thirds of all seats (62 out of 93) are under quota, with a smaller number of seats taking most of the population growth. The following map colour-codes each seat. Green seats are over quota, and red seats are under quota.

Camden in the south-west is projected to be 52.6% over quota by 2023. As of March 2020 it has over 75,000 voters, 8,000 more than the second most populous electorate (Londonderry) and 22,000 more than the least populous electorate (Cootamundra).

Camden has been taking the bulk of the population growth in the south-western quadrant of Sydney, particularly in the north of the seat. This trend is even more dramatic when you look at the local council wards, with the North ward taking almost all of the growth (I’ve been planning a wonky post about this population trend for a while, watch this space).

The other seats at the top of the list are similar centres for concentrated growth:

  • Riverstone – 22.0% over quota
  • Londonderry – 21.8%
  • Macquarie Fields – 20.0%
  • Castle Hill – 16.1%
  • Heffron – 13.7%
  • Shellharbour – 11.5%
  • Maitland – 10.9%

With the exception of Heffron, which has taken the bulk of inner Sydney’s population growth, all of these seats are outer suburban areas. Shellharbour is effectively an outer suburb of Wollongong, and Maitland plays the same role in relation to Newcastle.

Population growth in Sydney has not been even. There has been tremendous construction of new housing in the north-west and south-west, while the North Shore has been mostly spared. As a consequence, one Liberal MP on the North Shore is likely to lose their seat.

There is also a string of under-quota seats in those parts of Western Sydney closer to the city, and if a second seat is abolished it could be here.

These population trends don’t tell us exactly what will happen. The Commissioners will have many options for how they deal with this growing population imbalance, and many people will have opinions about how the map will be drawn. But ultimately the surge in population growth in Western Sydney and the outer suburbs of Newcastle and Wollongong will see shifts in power towards those areas, and away from those with little growth.

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28 COMMENTS

  1. How come they do this redistribution so far away from the next election?

    Surely they could scheduled it to be finalised around March 2022, certainly there would then be a better chance at drawing borders for a sensible 2026 election than if you draw them now.

  2. Have they considered expanding the size of the Legislative Assembly? It’s been a long time since it has been bigger, why not bring it to 125? Seems like a decent idea to me!

  3. Thanks for the heads up, Ben. This redistribution arrived sooner than I expected.

    My takeaways from looking at the numbers:
    – Though collectively under quota, all the inland rural districts ought to survive. This can be achieved by uniting the southern highlands in Goulburn, as well as transferring the surplus in the Hunter region.
    – The north shore seats are collectively under quota, but only by minor amounts individually. I’d say all will remain with a general westward expansion; especially with Castle Hill projected to be far above quota.
    – A seat between the Parramatta and Georges rivers looks vulnerable to abolition. The collective shortfall in this area is huge.
    – I think one new seat more likely than two. Obviously somewhere in the outer west, probably in the south west (notwithstanding the aforementioned northward expansion of Goulburn.)

    Other regions shouldn’t change much:
    – North coast seats should remain largely as is.
    – Not much change in the Hunter/central coast region. The biggest surpluses are in the outer seats of Maitland and Cessnock.
    – A surplus in the Illawarra region will drag Heathcote south.
    – Expect little or no change south of the Illawarra.

  4. Does anyone know where to find data on the previous redistribution? I can’t even find the report, let alone the suggestions.

    Probably not making a submission, as I don’t live in NSW, but might do a rough exercise while waiting for the federal processes later in the year. (I’ll do all states there because I figure I’m affected by all members of that parliament).

  5. Certainly an interesting thing to look at and hopefully they will make considered and sensible decisions in terms of who to move where.

    Obviously the seats which are seeing significant growth will need to see territory moved elsewhere. Some thoughts of mine
    – I can see a chunk of the over quota Heffron being transferred into the neighbouring under quota seat of Coogee. Potentially some of Heffron also moving into Newtown, Sydney or Vaucluse to further balance over vs under quota seats in Inner Sydney.
    – I can see a potential abolition of Cabramatta to facilitate the creation of a new seat out of the northern part of Camden and the western part of Macquarie Field in the South West Growth Zone. Shifts of under quota seats between the Parramatta and Georges Rivers will also help here.
    – Seats on the North Shore will make a westward move to soak up the excesses of the over quota seats in the North West.
    – Eastward shift of seats in the West and South of the state to balance under quota seats in the west with slightly over quota seats in the South East.
    – Over quota Ballina might lose some territory to under quota Lismore.
    – Over quota Maitland might lose some territory to under quota Upper Hunter.

  6. I’ll stick my neck out with a couple of big calls here.

    I’m calling either one of Davidson or KRG to drop, as the North Shore continues to move West. I’d lean towards Davidson going, with the Eastern Half of Davidson mopped up between Pittwater, Wakehurst and Manly and the Western Half split between KRG and Willoughby. You would also see North Shore expand West into Lane Cove.

    Expect Heffron to halve, with seats all around it taking a piece. Also expect Drummoyne and Strathfield to shift East into Summer Hill, as Summer Hill and Newtown shifts East into Heffron as well.

    Most of the seats in the South-West Sydney Region will expand West, into Macquarie Fields and Camden.

    For Western Sydney, it will be a shift West and North, with an outside chance of the area finally getting this propose new seat of Rouse Hill. This would mean an effective net 0 Change, exchanging one safe Liberal Seat (Davidson) with a new safe Liberal Seat in Rouse Hill.

    The other area where you could have a new seat is the South-East NSW Region, as the seats continue to compress into Wollongong. Goulburn will stretch East in General, dragging all the Western NSW Seats further East. Goulburn could well be split between the Southern Highlands and the outskirts of Wollongong at the rate it moves. The other Option is this brand new seat, nestled in between Goulburn, Kiama and South Coast, which would make it (probably) a marginal Liberal Seat.

  7. I think the wide margins allowed for NSW (in particular the +/- 10% at the projection date, as compared to +/- 3.5% for Commonwealth electoral divisions) and the fact that existing boundaries are not demoted behind other criteria (as they are in the Commonwealth legislation) will make for a conservative approach. In particular, while the south-east has a lot of seats over-quota, only Shellharbour is outside the thresholds, so you could make a small transfer from it to a neighbouring seat and call it a day in relation that area.

    Even for the areas with clusters of seats outside the permitted range, the wide margins offer a lot of flexibility. I suspect there will be one new seat in South-West Sydney but am less sure about where it will come from, as most of the under-quota areas can be brought back within the margins without completely eliminating a seat.

  8. I finally found the 2013 report and other data using the wayback machine. Between that and re-reading the legislation, I’ve realised that my comment above is slightly misconceived. While the Commonwealth legislation just says “get within the limits” and then moves onto the other criteria, the NSW legislation actually refers to “equal (within a margin…)” and it appears the Commissioners went off on a one-vote one-value bent last time and tinkered to get most seats very close to quota. So maybe more action than I was figuring.

  9. Whilst Heffron has quite a surplus, it’s still less than the combined deficit of Sydney/Vaucluse/Coogee/Maroubra on both current and projected figures. So the knock-on effects will not be huge. There may be a rearrangement with Newtown and Summer Hill, but if so there’ll be as much give as take. Once you get beyond the City of Sydney, expansion is generally westwards, not eastwards.

    Davidson is probably safe as there’s still a necessity for a hybrid northern beaches/north shore seat. Ku-ring-gai is potentially vulnerable; but it’s equally possible that a westward expansion of Epping or Ryde will save it. If it does go, a replacement seat would not be far removed.

    In my previous post I overestimated the likely change to Goulburn. Most of the inland shortfall can be made up from the excess in the Hunter and north coast. Goulburn will probably only add Bowral. That means there will almost certainly be a new seat in the outer south west, probably at the expense of a seat in the inner south west.

    A new seat outside of Sydney is most unlikely.

  10. Interesting to see the speculation here. I am currently working on a suggestion for the Greater Sydney. Here’s some of my observations:
    • It is virtually impossible to save both Ku-ring-gai and Davidson without creating a complete mess out of the north shore. I have two alternatives, one creating a “Pennant Hills” district, another creating a “Dural” district.
    • Almost certainly, there will be a new seat in southwest Sydney, likely around Western Sydney Airport. I’ve named it “Badgerys Creek”. A seat elsewhere must be abolished, and in my proposal that seat is Prospect.
    • The imbalance between Sydney and not Sydney can be rectified entirely by moving the southern boundary of Heathcote south.
    • I have Heffron ceding to Sydney and Coogee. It may be appropriate to rename Coogee to “Randwick” under these changes.
    • I have Newtown, Summer Hill, and Strathfield all shifting *west*. The low enrolment in the eastern suburbs is suffice to absorb the excess in Heffron.
    • I have Castle Hill renamed “Kellyville” based on the boundaries I’ve drawn. I also considered the name “Rouse Hill”.

  11. Hopefully some tidying up of annoying boundaries on the North Shore in the last redistribution can occur.
    1. That part of Cremorne north of Military Road, that sits in Willoughby, can be placed back with the rest of North Sydney LGA in North Shore.
    2. Castle Cove and the western side of Artarmon can join the rest of Willoughby LGA in Willoughby.
    3. Some of Greenwich more need to be moved from Lane Cove to North Shore and/or Lane Cove North from Lane Cove to Willoughby. Lane Cove probably doesn’t need to move west and will retain its name
    4. It does depend on what they do with Davidson. It’s an odd electorate, as when driving up the Pacific Hwy from Chatswood you are only in it for like 2 suburbs . They may decide to redraw Ku-ring-gai and Davidson entirely, as inferred above by others.

  12. @High Street

    – Transferring the remainder of Cremorne to North Shore is possible, though even after losing the panhandle into St Leonards, North Shore will remain slightly above quota. A more radical approach would be to have the boundary between North Shore and Lane Cove run from the Harbour Bridge along the Pacific Highway and then along the rail line. But I’m not sure how residents of Wollstonecraft and Waverton would feel about this.
    – Uniting Artarmon within Willoughby, or the other transfers you mentioned, will require that Lane Cove move further west.
    – I think the Panel will redraw Ku-ring-gai and Davidson entirely, as there is little way of getting around it. The preferred approach in my suggestion is effectively to abolish both and create a new seat named Gordon, with a majority of electors taken from Davidson.

  13. Interesting suggestions raised above.

    One of the clearest changes needing to be made seems to be the need to move Glenbrook and Lapstone from the seat of Penrith into the seat of Blue Mountains, uniting those suburbs with the rest of Blue Mountains LGA. This makes good sense. Penrith will then need to take votes from overquota Londonderry. Cambridge Park seems the most logical option geographically and representing an appropriate amount of votes.

    Heathcote’s move south as several people have mentioned also seems logical and likely.

    Agree that a new seat is very likely to be based in south west growth area, possibly called Leppington and taking in the newer suburbs of Oran Park, Gregory Hills, Gledswood Hills, Denham Court and possibly the older rural areas like Austral and Rossmore. This will likely replace a seat in the Sydney suburb ring from Prospect down to Kogarah where there is mostly under quota seats. The abolished seat could fall in quite a few places, however Prospect or Lakemba could be possible options.

    Davidson seems to be the most logical seat to be abolished in the north, with it being replaced with a Rouse Hill based seat, allowing a better alignment of Ku-Ring-Gai, Hornsby and Castle Hill, and improving the strange shape of Epping.

    Baulkham Hills may need to re-absorb Winston Hills, meaning Seven Hills would need to move to resemble the old Toongabbie seat more closely. This would possibly strengthen the case for abolishing Prospect in order to create the new Leppington seat.

    IStrathfield and Drummoyne have little space to go except west into the seat of Auburn.

    It’s also hard to see what they will do with the large excess in Riverstone and Londonderry, with the natural border between Blacktown and the Hills unlikely to be broken, and the M7 border between Riverstone and Blacktown also well distinguished.

    Mulgoa needs serious attention, with a number of completely disjointed communities joined in the current seat. The seat may lose its south-eastern suburbs on the outskirts of Fairfield and Liverpool, gaining from the south of Londonderry.

  14. @Majellan

    – Indeed, it is possible to define Blue Mountains SED as coterminous with Blue Mountains LGA and be within 1% of a quota.
    – Transferring Cambridge Park to Penrith is part of my suggestion.
    – Originally I had a seat named Leppington containing the suburbs you mentioned, but then realised that due to this current enrolment rule (which is a strict non-compromisable constraint), I had to extend this seat north to the water supply line in Penrith and Fairfield. I guess Leppington is still an appropriate name, though I have opted for Badgerys Creek.
    – One of my initial drafts had Lakemba abolished, though by moving Strathfield west I was able to leave it with very minimal changes and abolish Prospect instead. The boundaries between Blacktown, Cumberland, and Fairfield LGAs that Prospect straddles are now respected by my proposed Blacktown, Greystanes (replacing Granville) and Fairfield districts.
    – I have Davidson and Ku-ring-gai replaced by a new Gordon district, along with Hornsby entering Ku-ring-gai LGA. This latter part may prove to be controversial, but it avoids problem in nearby districts and further out. I also will offer some alternatives that avoid this.
    – The strangeness of Epping is something I have mightily complained about in my suggestion, having myself lived in the north (Cherrybrook), the middle (Beecroft), and the south (Carlingford) of this district. My preferred proposal involves splitting Epping into a Pennant Hills district and a Carlingford district.
    – I have opted for the name “Kellyville” over “Rouse Hill”, even though I should have a bias because I live in Rouse Hill! Maybe the boundaries I’m suggesting aren’t exactly what others are thinking? I have Kellyville span from Box Hill to Bella Vista, down the corridor bounded by Cattai Creek and Old Windsor Road.
    – Absorbing Winston Hills into Baulkham Hills is something I have considered, and is featured in an alternative. My main proposal involves uniting Baulkham Hills and Castle Hill along with the semirural suburbs to the north, allowing for the new (really a successor to Castle Hill) Kellyville (or Rouse Hill) district.
    – I have Strathfield expand into Lidcombe and the suburbs around Olympic Park. Agreed that there really is no choice here.
    – Londonderry – loses Cambridge Park and Werrington Downs to Penrith, and the southern boundary recedes to the Great Western Highway. Londonderry then expands to include the remaining 60s-70s public housing suburbs northwest of Mount Druitt. This is all essentially a flow-on from the creation of Badgerys Creek, and largely contributes to the abolition of Prospect.
    – Riverstone – loses Glenwood to Seven Hills. I do have an alternative that sees Kellyville cross Old Windsor Road into Kellyville Ridge, though as you point out, this is less than ideal.
    – My suggested changes to Mulgoa are pretty much what you’ve suggested – transfer Middleton Grange to Badgerys Creek, Cecil Hills to Liverpool, Abbotsbury to Fairfield, and move north.

  15. Very interesting observations Majellan. I think Western Sydney may look quite different after this process.

    I think as you mention if Prospect is to be the seat abolished then this will have a huge knock on effect in Granville (likely renamed to Merrylands) and Blacktown. I suspect the new Granville would probably lose Clyde and a tidy up to south if Cabramatta remains (could also be the case to abolish Granville which I’m sure may solve some headaches for Labor!).

    There may also be the case to significantly change Mulgoa back to an Eastern Creek name and take in West of Wallgrove Rd and take in the growing estates around Caddens and Claremont Meadows whilst retaining St Claire and Erskine Park. Penrith and Londonderry I think will look quite interesting after all this is done. I’m sure that Liberals would be hoping for Penrith to be based more around the Emu suburbs and the growing Glenmore Park then allowing Stuart Ayres to fend off a slighlty weaker seat (particularly with the loss of his Blue Mountains friendly booths). If that does become the case then Londonderry may infact end up finding itself as…Penrith! Losing the Blacktown area, Marsden Park and depending on changes from Riverstone/Rouse Hill/Hawkesbury may even lose a few votes from the Northern end.

    As for the North Shore diellema I expect there will be little trouble for the Libs with Brad Hazzard a contender for retirement with a shuffling of Jonathan O’Dea moving to Wakehurst which should ideally become a more leafy North Shore seat as opposed to a bits and pieces seat it currently is

  16. On the Northside, Davidson does seem the logical candidate for abolition. The areas east of Middle Harbour probably going to Wakehurst and a rejig of the other under quota Northern Beaches seats. Ku Ring Gai can move toward Middle Harbour and Willoughby move north, Lane Cove could move eastwards to mop up the rest.

    In Northern NSW, Tenterfield can go from Lismore to Northern Tablelands. This will allow a shuffle southwards on the North Coast. Upper Hunter has become the bits and pieces seat in the North. Tamworth can take over the remaining parts of the Liverpool Plains. If Tamworth was extended as far south as Scone, then that would allow Gunnedah to be joined to Barwon and help under enrolment in Western NSW. Moving Upper Hunter down would help solve the over quota issues in Maitland and Cessnock.

    It would seem that western NSW has to lose a seat and Cootamundra would seem the obvious candidate. I haven’t tested the numbers but the only way possible would seem to push Blue Mountains to include Lithgow (as it once did) and Bathurst and/ or Orange into and around Cowra. The Lower Blue Mountains to be joined with Penrith.

    It also seems that the SE NSW boundaries will need a major rework sooner or later. The seeming problem is that Queanbayen sits right on the edge of Monaro and it is the obvious growth centre. A solution would be to change Bega and Monaro from North South to East West seats. One along the Snowy Mountains highway – Bega Valley Shire through to Cooma – and the other on the Kings Highway – joining Queanbayen and Batemans Bay. This would give room for the seats to expand and contract as required.

    In Inner Sydney, Summer Hill seems ripe to abolition as the logical move for Strathfield and Drummoyne is into Ashfield and Summer Hill.

  17. I don’t think western NSW needs to lose a seat. If you transfer the Upper Hunter and Tenterfield to inland seats, there’s enough voters to go around.

    The provincial seats like Dubbo, Orange, Albury, Bathurst and Goulburn have a reasonable enrolment base, so there’s no need for massive change, in my opinion. The excess from the Hunter can be spread around fairly naturally.

  18. Western NSW won’t change. Barwon and Cootamundra will expand a bit, but the districts should all survive.

    In Northern NSW, a lot of seats are close to parity and I would expect many will be left as is. Particularly seats like Ballina and Coffs Harbour which adhere closely to LGA boundaries. Lismore is interesting. Being close to parity it could also be left alone. But if Tenterfield is transferred to Northern Tablelands (where it belongs), it forces Casino into Lismore which then forces Kyogle into Northern Tablelands to make the numbers work. i.e. The two competing arrangements are Lismore+Murwillumbah+Kyogle+Tenterfield or Lismore+Murwillumbah+Casino. Though more disruptive, the second option might appeal as the knock on effects would cater for Port Macquarie’s surplus, which then allows Myall Lakes and Port Stephens to be left largely as is.

    There are small surpluses in the Hunter region, the cumulative effects of which could be significant for Upper Hunter. That will be an interesting seat.

    In Sydney, I’ve belatedly come to agree that a north shore seat will probably be abolished. The Northern Beaches LGA is only a bit above three quotas, so you could abolish Davidson and shuffle Willoughby north to take in Forestville/Killarney Heights (resurrecting the old Middle Harbour arrangement). I see no issue with putting Wahroonga into Hornsby, c.f. Ku-ring-gai’s geography at the 1991 election. The replacement seat would obviously be an equally blue ribband electorate in the Hills district.

    In the inner west, you might see Drummoyne take Haberfield; with Summer Hill, Strathfield & Auburn shuffling or expanding southwards. This approach would mean the abolition of a seat in the Canterbury-Bankstown region.

    I agree that Mulgoa should be pared back to Penrith LGA; more like its original form. It really is an ugly bits-and-pieces seat at the moment. It could do this partially from Londonderry’s surplus, though it would also have knock on effects through Blacktown council. This has both good and bad outcomes – it would push Blacktown and Seven Hills south to the Great Western Hwy, but it also forces Mount Druitt to straddle South Creek.

    If Prospect survives, it probably goes back to something like its old Smithfield form south of the highway.

  19. Interesting read in my copy of the DT this morning, nearly choked on my porridge at some of the suggestions! It seems to suggesting that Penrith to become safer seemingly at the expense of Muloga. I imagine this would be push Mulgoa East with the loss of Glenmore Park to Penrith. The merger of Maroubra and Heffron is one that would be interesting given the remarkable changes to Heffron losing its distinct end of Botany Bay over the years. However I think this would be a stretch to accomodate an unlikely seat of Waverley. A new seat of Dural would not account for the long term increase in North West Sydney and I think abolishing Cantebury is a dream rather then a reality. I look forward to Don’s next submission for a seat of Elizabeth Bay!

  20. @David Walsh

    I’m reassured to see somewhere else mention moving the Killarney Heights area into Willoughby, which is part of my suggestion. As far as I can see, this is the least bad option.

    Wow, I just found a map of districts from 1991 and see the Ku-ring-gai boundaries you mentioned. This is roughly the boundaries for one of the districts in my suggestion. I was thinking of retaining the name “Hornsby” for it. Maybe I should suggest “Ku-ring-gai”? The district to the south I’m suggesting be named “Gordon”.

    I’ve largely managed to avoid radical changes or abolitions in the Canterbury-Bankstown area by moving Strathfield west into Lidcombe and the Sydney Olympic Park area.

    Mount Druitt straddling South Creek is hard to avoid.

    @Phillipson

    I read that too! I actually tried playing around with some of these ideas to test their viability and what exactly the Liberal suggestion might contain.

    I too imagined that it might involve transferring Glenmore Park (where Davies lives) to Penrith, but I don’t see how that’s going to work without creating awful boundaries in Mulgoa and/or Londonderry.

    I can see that the Waverley idea is feasible but dubious – Waverley would likely have a panhandle stretching into Dover Heights. While I haven’t investigated this too far, it looks like this will necessitate a largely unnecessary shake-up of the Inner West, and one which I think many residents will find highly objectionable.

    Agreed regarding Canterbury, I cannot see how this is feasible. I am also wondering what they are planning to pull off to secure Oatley. Hurstville is not particularly safe for Liberal, Padstow is 50-50, and Punchbowl is safe Labor. Are they about to propose that part of the Sutherland Shire be transferred to Oatley?!

  21. I think there was a fair amount of factional misinformation in the DT story, particularly as it pertains to:

    1. Oatley – Coure won every booth in 2019. I don’t think on any read of the Georges River demographics he needs saving, and most adjoining booths that might drop into a “new”Oatley are trending Liberal;
    2, Any movement or adjustment to Coogee will in all likelihood move it north and west which should help the endorsed Lib candidate in 2023. But I don’t think there is serious contemplation of a new seat, new name etc.

    In essence it was an anti-Harwin dump, and probably should be read as not much more than that.

  22. Actually, whenever I look at the 1991 map I’m bemused they didn’t retain the name Hornsby. Ku-ring-gai was the premier’s seat at the time; which makes you wonder. I would call your Gordon seat Ku-ring-gai, which obviously has a large overlap with Ku-ring-gai LGA.

    I can’t access the Tele article, but it does sound like the Liberal submission will be a dog of a thing. It’s a bit odd this is leaking before the submission deadline.

  23. Re Oatley, a sensible arrangement would be to move the boundary north to the M5. That gets the St George area up to three quotas on current figures. There would then need to be a transfer from Oatley to Kogarah (perhaps Blakehurst?) to balance the numbers. Rockdale can remain unchanged.

  24. I’ve gone over these in some detail and compared the submissions between Liberal and Labor.

    There are three suggestions from Labor that had me straight-out laughing because they seem to have been done up by some work experience kid who was told to come up with something that the US Congress would be proud of:
    *Goulburn – Stretching all the way out to Yass?! HUH?!
    *Macquarie Fields – Wrapping around their new proposed seat of Minto…….
    *KRG – Including Cherrybrook?! This one, I nearly fell out of my seat!

    The Liberal Party suggestions, I would simply call, cynical.
    *It is a clear play from Don Harwin to get Bruce Notley-Smith back into parliament, either through the new seat of Waverley or even the new Coogee. Sacrificing some margin for Vaucluse (now Woolahra) in favour of gaining ground in this new seat of Waverley. They then compensate this by squeezing Sydney from the East, virtually meaning that they have given up hope of ever winning Sydney.
    *They moved Haberfield into Strathfield, clearly to try and distract Jodie McKay during election time by making her seat marginal again.
    *The virtual chopping of Londonderry into St Marys is clearly to protect Stuart Ayres.

    Some of the more interesting changes:
    *Labor shifting Haberfield from Balmain to Drummoyne tells me that they have given up on Drummoyne going Red again but could be trying for another big push on Balmain. The changes in and around those seats appear to be designed to help take the Inner-City Greens Seats Out (including Newtown on this).
    *Liberal’s Proposal for Seven Hills (taking Lalor Park from Blacktown) means Mark Taylor could well be shopping for a new seat. Don’t be surprised if he moves to Galston.
    *The situation around Davidson is interesting. With how bat-shit crazy the Labor suggestion is, the most likely situation remains that Davidson is abolished and I would imagine that Jonathan O’Dea will be shifting into Wakehurst, with Brad Hazzard probably announcing his retirement.

  25. The suggestion process is always captive to political parties self interest but sometimes they descend into downright silliness. Hawkeye has highlighted actually been quite restrained in his criticisms of the ALP submission. The ALP predeliction for the dumb bell shape seat that attempts to link two disparate areas is shown in Goulburn and Ku Ring Gai.

    In addition to the above, I would add the strange L shaped Cootamundra that stretches westwards from Taralga (very much in the Goulburn City hinterland) and then takes a sharp turn north to take in Condobolin.

    And in Gordon, there are a series of what can only be called exclaves in Forestville and Frenchs Forest which are joined by parkland.

  26. Hey everyone. So these are the significant Notes from the Liberal Party Side. I will use the original seat name before the description:

    *Ballina – Renamed Byron. Ballina Shire split between Clarence and Lismore. Expands West and North through Lismore. Given that this is Nimbin Territory, I daresay that Ballina is going to be very Green for some time.

    *Canterbury – ABOLISHED. This was a genuine surprise.

    *Castle Hill – Takes everything down to the M2 from Baulkham Hills. Loses the top end of the seat to either Baulkham Hills or the new seat of Galston. This could have preselection ramifications as Ray Williams would technically now live in Baulkham Hills.

    *Coogee – Renamed Waverley. This seat is basically the entirety of Waverley Council, losing South Coogee and Kingsforde and gaining Bondi Junction, up along the eastern coastlines. Given the booths it takes in, this would be a fairly safe Liberal Seat. This is the first of the cynical factional moves by Don Harwin as this would get Bruce Notley-Smith back into parliament.

    *DAVIDSON – ABOLISHED. No surprise. Davidson is majorly under-quota and losing population and it would make more sense to only have 3 seats on the Northern Beaches, rather than 3.5.

    *East Hills – TAKES IN GEORGES HALL AND THE REST OF CONDELL PARK FROM BANKSTOWN. I ESTIMATE THIS TO BE NOTIONALLY LABOR!

    *Heffron – Renamed Coogee. Runs from Zetland to Coogee Beach, between Waverley Council and East Gardens/South Coogee. This would retain its safe Labor Status.

    *Holsworthy – Gains Illawong and parts of Menai from Miranda. Loses Prestons/Lurnea to the new seat of Leppington. Gains Glenfield from Macquarie Fields. This is the 2nd of the cynical factional plays from Don Harwin because the gain of votes from Illawong and Menai basically sandbags Melanie Gibbons and makes Holsworthy fairly safe.

    *Kogarah – Renamed Earlwood. Loses Carrs Creek to Miranda. Gains Earlwood from the old Canterbury. This seat was listed as very marginal (although it should be stated that there was a significant anti-labor swing at the last election in this seat). This will return to being safe

    *Lismore – LOSES NIMBIN TO NEW SEAT OF BYRON. GAINS WEST HALF OF BALLINA SHIRE AND GAINS CASINO FROM CLARENCE. I THINK THIS SEAT COULD BE NOTIONALLY NATIONAL

    *Newtown – LOSES SURRY HILLS/REDFERN TO SYDNEY. GAINS ALEXANDRIA FROM HEFFRON AND GAINS TEMPE AND ST PETERS FROM SUMMER HILL. I THINK THIS SEAT BECOMES NOTIONALLY LABOR OVER THE GREENS

    *Londonderry – Renamed St Marys. West boundary is Northern Road to Werrington and around to Kingswood. Takes St Clair from Mulgoa and Whelan/Letherbridge/Emerton from Mount Druitt. The new seat is potentially even safer for Labor

    *Penrith – LOSES BLUE MOUNTAINS LGA. LOSES KINGSWOOD TO NEW SEAT OF ST MARYS. GAINS THE OLD LONDONDERRY SEAT TO THE EDGE OF THE PENRITH LGA! THIS GOES FROM BEING VERY MARGINAL TO FAIRLY SAFE FOR LIBERAL AND IS DON HARWIN ATTEMPTING TO PROTECT STUART AYRES.

    *Port Stephens – RENAMED RAYMOND TERRACE. LOSES PORT STEPHENS TO NEW SEAT OF GLOUCESTER BUT RETAINS WILLIAMSTOWN. WEST BOUNDARY IS THE HUNTER RIVER, HEADING NORTH TO SUMMER HILL, WALLINGA AND BROOKFIELD. THIS SEAT BECOMES ULTRA MARGINAL, IF NOT NOTIONALLY LIBERAL. COULD EVEN BE THREE-CORNERED

    *Prospect – Gains Bungarribee from Blacktown. Gains Wentworthville from Seven Hills. Loses all of Fairfield City Council down to Bossley Park. Gains whole of Eastern Creek from Mulgoa. This seat could be getting quite marginal.

    *Riverstone – Renamed Stanhope Gardens. South Border is the M7. North Border is a line from Colebee to Kellyville Ridge. I think this seat becomes more marginal.

    *Seven Hills – GAINS THE REST OF LALOR PARK FROM BLACKTOWN. I THINK THIS SEAT COULD WELL BE NOTIONALLY LABOR!

    *Strathfield – Swaps Ashfield and Haberfield for Croydon Park with Summer Hill. Loses North Strathfield to Drummoyne. This would make Strathfield very marginal but this is another cynical play to distract Jodi McKay

    *Summer Hill – Swaps Ashfield and Haberfield for Croydon Park with Strathfield. Takes Canterbury/Campsie from the old Canterbury. Loses Marrickville to Newtown. I think this seat becomes very safe for Labor and takes away any threats from the Greens.

    *Sydney – You can forget about the Liberal Party being competitive in Sydney with these boundaries. Everything East of South Dowling Street goes to Woollahra (new name for Vaucluse). Gains Redfern/Surry Hills from Newtown. For now, it’s three-cornered but this will be a Labor/Greens Seats in the future.

    *Upper Hunter – Gets renamed Gloucester. Takes in Port Stephens itself and Myall Lakes itself, along with Dungog Shires and Gloucester Shire. This goes from being Marginal to pretty safe for the Nats.

    Two new seats come in to replace the abolished seats:
    *Galston – North Border is the Hawkesbury River, around Pitt Town and down to Box Hill and Nelson. East Border is Berowra Valley National Park. This is a safe Liberal Seat
    *Leppington – Northern borders are Bringelly Road, then between Austral and Carnes Hill, out to Lurnea down along the Hume Highway/Motorway and then winding back up to Catherine Field. To me, this is another Liberal Seat.

    From this, the Coalition would effectively gain 2 seats, at the expense of 1 each from Labor and the Greens. The net gains would be the new seat of Leppington and Lismore becoming notionally National (from Labor), with the other gains being offset.

    That, to me, isn’t actually the biggest issue with this redistribution. It is the fact that Don Harwin has done the redistribution to help out the Left of the Liberal Party in such a cynical manner.
    *John Barilaro ends up living in Goulburn, not living in Monaro
    *Ray Williams ends up living in Baulkham Hills, not Castle Hill, pitting a possible preselection battle with David Elliott
    *The abolishment of Davidson and moving of Davidson and The Forest into Wakehurst means that there is a potential preselection battle between Jonathan O’Dea and Brad Hazzard.
    *Addition of Illawong and parts of Menai to Holsworthy protects Melanie Gibbons
    *Creation of Waverley gets Bruce Notley-Smith back into Parliament.
    *Chopping of the northern part of Londonderry into Penrith protects Stuart Ayres

    I’ll do the Labor Side next but, be warned, this is simply bat-shit crazy

  27. Just completed the Labor Analysis in detail. Here are the significant ones. Most of them are re-routing of seats, of which there are plenty from the Inner West to the South West.:
    *Ballina – Loses Wollongbar and South Alstonville to Lismore. I think this makes the seat safer for the Greens

    *Bankstown – Renamed Villawood. Takes Cabramatta itself and Canley Valey, through Villawood and out to Sefton and Bass Hill, with the northern peak at Old Guildford. Remains very safe.

    *Blacktown – Takes Glendenning, Deans Park and Colebee from Mount Druitt. Takes Bungaribee and Eastern Creek from Prospect. Loses Lalor Park to Seven Hills. I actually think this seat could get slightly more marginal.

    *Blue Mountains – Takes Lower Blue Mountains up to edge of Blue Mountains LGA. Loses some margin but stays safe.

    *CABRAMATTA – ABOLISHED

    *Camden – Loses Liverpool LGA Section to Mulgoa. Loses Camden Park to Wollondilly. Loses Gledswood Hills, Gregory Hill and Catherine Field to Campbelltown. Will lose some margin but remain safe for Liberal

    *Canterbury – Renamed Earlwood. Loses Canterbury and everything north of the Cooks River to the new seat of Canterbury. Gains Roselands, Wiley Park and Lakemba from new Bankstown. Like to get safer

    *Castle Hill – Renamed Annangrove. Loses South side of Castle Hill to Baulkham Hills. Loses Box Hill to Hawkesbury. No real change in Margin

    *Davidson – Renamed Gordon. Loses all of Northern Beaches to Wakehurst except Forestville north of Warringah Road. Gains Pymble, West Pymble and West Lindfield from KRG. Loses Castle Cove to Willoughby. No real change in Margin

    *Drummoyne – Takes Haberfield from Summer Hill. Makes the seat safer.

    *Dubbo – Gains Borambil and Merriwa from Upper Hunter, making it safer for NATS

    *EAST HILLS – LOSES SOUTH SIDE OF GEORGES HALL TO VILLAWOOD. GAINS SOUTH BANKSTOWN FROM BANKSTOWN. I THINK THIS SEAT BECOMES NOTIONALLY LABOR

    *Goulburn – Loses Upper Lachlan Shire and Boorowa Council to Cootamundra. Gains Harden Shire and Gundagai Shire from Cootamundra. Gains West end of Kiama. Real Question marks about whether this stays with the Liberal Party or will change to the National Party.

    *Heathcote – LOSES BANGOR TO MIRANDA. LOSES MENAI TO MIRANDA AND LIVERPOOL. GAINS EVERYTHING FROM COLEDEE TO BULLI AND WOONONA FROM KEIRA. I THINK THIS SEAT COULD BE NOTIONALLY LABOR.

    *Holsworthy – Renamed Liverpool. Gains Alford Point from Miranda. Gains south Menai from Heathcote. Gains whole of Liverpool. Loses everything west of Georges River to Macquarie Fields and Green Valley. Seat likely to remain marginal for Liberal

    *Kogorah – Gains the rest of Kingsgrove from the old Canterbury. Gets significantly safer for Labor.

    *Lakemba – Renamed Bankstown. Loses everything west of Birwong/Yagoona to new seat of Villawood. Gains Chullorha, Greenacre, Mt Lewis and Punchbowl from old Lakemba. Minimal change in margin.

    *Lismore – Gains Wollongbar from Ballina. Gains everything up to and including Broadwater National Park from Clarence. This seat becomes a bigger 3-cornered contest.

    *Liverpool – Renamed Green Valley. Loses Liverpool. Takes Prestons from Holsworthy. Takes Middleton Grange from Mulgoa. Takes Bonnyrigg and Bonnyrigg Heights from Cabramatta. Remains very safe for Labor.

    *Macquarie Fields – Loses everything south of the rail-line to the new seat of Minto except for Denham Court, Macquarie Fields and Glenfield. Gains Casula, Lurnea and most of Prestons from Holsworthy. Becomes exceptionally safe for Labor.

    *Newtown – Loses Surry Hills to Sydney. Gains Lewisham from old Summer Hill. Gains Erskinville from Heffron. This seat become more marginal between LAB/GRN, could even be notionally Labor.

    *Oatley – Gains Riverwood and Narwee from old Lakemba. Becomes more marginal for Liberal.

    *Seven Hills – Gains Glenwood from Riverstone. Gains Lalor Park from Blacktown. Loses Winston Hills to Baulkham Hills. Loses Northmead to Parramatta. Gains the rest of Toongabbie from Granville. NOTIONALLY LABOR

    *Sydney – Gains Surry Hills from Newtown. Loses the rest of Edgecliffe and the rest of Woollahra to Vaucluse. Gains Moore Park from Heffron

    *Summer Hill – Renamed Canterbury. Shifts North of Cooks River, losing everything south to Earlwood. Takes Marickville and Ashfield from old Summer Hill. No significant Margin Change

    *Upper Hunter – RENAMED SINGLETON! LOSES LIVERPOOL PLAINS SHIRE AND UPPER HUNTER SHIRE TO TAMWORTH. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IS SOUTH TO CESSNOCK AIRPORT FROM CESSNOCK AND AROUND MAITLAND AIRPORT FROM MAITLAND. I THINK THIS SEAT IS NOTIONALLY LABOR!

    1 NEW SEAT – MINTO – Takes Menangle Park, Glen Alpine, Englorie Park, Ambarvale, Rosemeadow, St Helens Park, Airds, Leumeah and Kentlyn from Wollondilly. Takes Minto, Minto Heights, Ingleburn, Macquarie Links and Bardia from Macquarie Fields. This seat could be marginal.

    So, with Cabramatta abolished and, allowing for a redistribution to balance out the seat loss, it could well be that, apart from the re-balance for Cabramatta, there is the potential that 4-5 seats could be Notionally Labor by the end of this redistribution. The complain about this redistribution being ridiculous in terms of the seat changes is there for all to see, in that it looks like a thinly-veiled gerrymander.

    My last part will be to pick out the common ground and see what happens, objectively.

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