Seat in focus: Parramatta

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Parramatta in Western Sydney currently is sitting as the second-most-marginal seat in the country. Labor MP Julie Owens is leading by 482 votes: a 50.32% margin.

Click here to read my pre-election profile of Parramatta.

Owens started out leading by over 1000 votes, but has not yet fallen behind despite losing ground.

Most postal votes have now been counted, while quite a lot of prepoll and absentee votes are yet to be counted. The Liberal Party’s Martin Zaiter polled very strongly in postal votes, while Owens is leading in those other categories. This race will be very close.

The analysis is based on the breakdown of the electorate into four sub-areas, the same used in the pre-election profile.

Voter GroupGRN %ALP 2PP %LIB swingTotal votes% of ordinary votes
North-East5.7545.123.1418,98732.86
North-West5.7152.314.2713,64323.61
South-West3.6452.222.4013,03322.55
South-East5.2156.883.1212,12420.98
Other votes4.9948.1516,759

The ALP won a majority in three out of four areas on ordinary votes, with the Liberal Party winning 54.9% in the north-east, closest to Bennelong and the Liberal Party’s northern heartland. While the Liberal Party gained swings in all four areas, none of them were enough to change the majority party in any area.

The Liberal Party is currently leading with 51.9% in the ‘other votes’ category.

The Liberal Party gained modest swings in most booths, apart from four booths. The ALP gained significant 5% swings in two booths near Granville.

Most booths saw small swings of less than 5% to the Liberal Party, although booths in the centre of Parramatta rose to 7%, 8% and 11%.

Two-party-preferred votes in Parramatta at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Parramatta at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in Parramatta at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred swings in Parramatta at the 2013 federal election.
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2 COMMENTS

  1. Absolutely delighted that Julie Owens has retained Parramatta. A great person & MP. I look forward to the ALP learning how to listen to members like her, instead of the egomaniacs.

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