In an unsurprising move, the Greens have chosen Adam Bandt as the candidate for the federal seat of Melbourne. Bandt is the Convenor of the Australian Greens, and was candidate for Melbourne in 2007 and Lord Mayoral candidate in 2008. Bandt is a former partner at Slater and Gordon and specialist in industrial law, representing unions and workers in various cases.
Melbourne is the only Greens seat where the Greens came second at the 2007 election, and it is held by Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner by 4.71%. It will be difficult for the Greens to win in 2010, but it is definitely possible and probably the Greens’ best prospect.
I believe that Bandt used to hold a job (I think it was at Slater and Gordon) that Julia Gillard used to hold. Hopefully it is not the last job that Bandt holds that was once held by Gillard.
I think that, subject to the redistribution, the Greens will probably come second in Grayndler and possibly in Sydney.
And I think there is a very good chance Bandt will win Melbourne next year as well.
Unfortunate if these socialist nutjobs boot a productive minister out of his seat. Tanner is fantastic, capable, experienced, lets just hope the people of Melbourne (who are the only ones who should decide his fate) think wisely before voting.
I agree with Rationalist, in that I too hope the voters of Melbourne think wisely before voting. If they do, they’ll be voting Green.
Hurr hurr hurr.
It’s the Green’s best shot, but I think in some ways it will be more difficult for the Greens in 2010. Tanner’s now a fairly senior minister and Labor will be pulling out all stops to defend the seat.
@ Rationalist
The ALP are members of an international socialist organisation, so I guess you are worried that the ALP will parachute Tanner into a safer seat, instead of letting the people of Melbourne decide. I’m not sure that Labor will risk a such a fantastic, capable and experienced minister purely in the name of democracy.
Or are you being sarcastic?
There was a good dose of sarcasm there.
I do think it is a waste to vote out Tanner in favour of a one term Greens member of the House who will have little or no influence, power or legacy.
The Greens are not targeting Melbourne because it has Tanner in it they are targeting it because it is probably their most winnable seat. It the ALP thinks Tanner is so good that he should not face a real prospect of defeat then they can move him to a safe seat.
Tom is right, people vote for who they most associate with, and it is likely that Green MPs would come from left-leaning seats, that have to date produced labor left MPs. It is a shame that it would be Tanner that would lose – he is to me one of the best Government ministers – but that’s the game – all sides will win and lose on their merits.
Objectively, I would consider Tanner a solid favourite and Melbourne most likely a Labor seat until Tanner retires, or failing that for an as yet unelected Green State MP within the Melbourne border to challenge. Time will tell.
@Rationalist
I disagree that if Adam won he would be a one-term MP. Once he was in office I tend to think he would be hard to budge. Also getting Greens elected in Melbourne, along with a few others, is a stepping stone to having the balance of power in the House of Representatives. Were this to happen, they would have tremendous power and responsibility.
I agree that Bandt is unlikely to be a one-termer.
I think that as the current ALP government gets older then the ALP vote in Melbourne will go down as the government annoys more voters.
The Senate vote in Melbourne suggests Tanner has a strong personal vote among the left milieu that is based in 1980s personal connections. He would be very difficult to unseat.Rudd’s leftish rhetoric on the economy will help also.
I do not think that most of that difference is a personal vote for Tanner. Many people vote differently in the Senate and some of those vote that way because the support a minor party but don`t understand preferential voting and don`t want to risk the worse of two evils getting in.
I would argue that the lower vote for the ALP in the Senate rather suggests that there are Labor voters in Melbourne who have expressed a willingness to consider voting for someone else.
On the one hand, you have Tanner’s higher profile as a prominent cabinet minister, but on the other hand, the removal of the spectre of the Howard government likely will make it easy for the Greens to gain Labor votes. The question is which of those forces will prove to be stronger in Melbourne.
I would think that Tanner`s profile would be weaker than the no more Howard government effect combined with the annoyed with the right-wingness of the Rudd government effect.
My tip for the future – keep an eye on the electorate of Fraser. I reckon Bob McMullan has built up a very substantial personal vote that is keeping a lot of potential Green voters in the Labor fold. If there’s a good Green candidate there when Bob retires, they should do quite well.
I think that the Greens would have an even better chance in the ACT if it went back to 3 seats. The Greens would then if they campaigned well have a chance of overtaking the Libs and making another ALP versus Green marginal.
I think Adam Bandt is a superb candidate, but I also think Lindsay Tanner is an asset for all of us. Definitely one of the best members of this government. So glad I don’t have to make a decision re voting here.
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