As of this morning, the result is Liberal National Party on 76 seats, the Labor Party on 6, Katter’s Australian Party on 2, and two independents. This leaves three seats too close to call: Bulimba, Mackay and Yeerongpilly. At the moment the ALP is ahead in Bulimba and Mackay and the LNP is ahead in Yeerongpilly.
Considering the scale of the Liberal National success, I’m going to focus instead on the other parties. Needless to say, the Liberal National Party gained seats everywhere. They gained Labor seats on the Gold Coast and throughout Far North Queensland. They knocked off the last Labor seat on the Sunshine Coast and 1-2 of Labor’s three remaining seats in Central Queensland. Meanwhile they well and truly dominated the Brisbane area. Before the election the LNP held only six seats in the greater Brisbane area: now Labor only holds 4-5.
The LNP also managed to regain the seats of Burnett and Beaudesert off defectors Rob Messenger and Aidan McLindon, and regained the seats of Nanango and Maryborough off other independents.
Labor now holds 6-9 seats after the election. These seats are:
- Bundamba – Ipswich suburbs, 21.2% margin.
- Inala – Brisbane suburbs, 21.5% margin.
- Mulgrave – Cairns suburbs, 8.1% margin.
- Rockhampton – Central Queensland, 17.9% margin.
- South Brisbane – Inner Brisbane, 15.0% margin.
- Woodridge – Logan, 25.4% margin.
And they might also win:
- Bulimba – Inner Brisbane, 7.8% margin.
- Mackay – Central Queensland, 16.7% margin.
- Yeerongpilly – Brisbane suburbs, 8.7% margin.
If you look at these seats on the pendulum, it is a clear result. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge are the party’s four safest seats, with margins over 17%. The next two most marginal are Ipswich and Mackay. Mackay is currently undecided, and Ipswich was lost with a massive 20.8% swing, as predicted by commenters on this blog. South Brisbane is not much further down the pendulum. After South Brisbane you pass another ten seats before you reach Yeerongpilly, Bulimba and Mulgrave, which all had margins of 7-9%. Curtis Pitt’s survival in Mulgrave is largely due to a massive vote for Katter’s Australian Party undermining the LNP swing, while in Bulimba and Yeerongpilly the Labor MPs managed to keep the swings to lower levels from which they have a chance of survival.
Labor’s defeats put them in a severely weakened position. They now hold no seats north of the Brisbane, all the way until you get to Mackay and Rockhampton. They also hold no seats on the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast or in Townsville. In the area of Brisbane south of the river, Ipswich and Logan, the party has been reduced to 4-6 seats, compared to 19 before the election.
In addition, the party holds 1-2 seats in Central Queensland and only one in North Queensland. In 2009 Labor won all three seats in Townsville, as well as all four covering Cairns, and Mount Isa. Out of these eight, Labor has held on to one, losing six to the LNP and one to Katter’s party.
Katter’s Australian Party performed strongly for a minor party, holding on to two seats and playing a large role elsewhere. The party focused on two elements: campaigning on coal-seam gas in rural parts of Southern Queensland, and campaigning on Bob Katter’s name in the far north. Poll Bludger’s regional breakdown of results shows that the party was far more successful in the north. The party averaged over 20% across the far north, the interior and the north coast, as well as winning two seats. While the party did well in seats like Nanango and Beaudesert, it wasn’t enough to pry them away from the LNP. Overall the KAP came in the top two in twelve seats.
The Greens saw their total statewide vote go backwards, from 8.4% to 7.6%. In the Greens’ key seat of Mount Coot-tha, the Greens went back 3%, with the sitting Labor MP Andrew Fraser going back by 8%. The Greens managed to come second in Indooroopilly, where the Greens and Labor went back by a total of 15%, leaving the sitting Liberal National MP with over 61% of the primary vote. I could only find one other seat where the Greens came in the top two, with the party winning 17% in Noosa, which put them ahead of Labor and the KAP. Looking at the breakdown, the Greens went backwards in every part of Queensland except on the Sunshine Coast.
I’ve now uploaded the updated version of the 2009-2012 map for Google Earth, with the seats coloured as of the latest results. You can also download a time-series map which allows you to flick between the results of the 2001, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2012 elections.