Roe – WA 2017

NAT 16.7% vs LIB

Incumbent MP

• Graham Jacobs, Member for Eyre (Liberal) since 2008. Previously Member for Roe 2005-2008.
• Terry Waldron, Member for Wagin (Nationals) since 2001.

Geography
South-eastern Western Australia. Roe covers southern parts of the Wheatbelt, and then stretches further east to also cover Esperance.

Redistribution
Roe is primarily a replacement for the seat of Wagin. The seat lost Plantagenet council area to Warren-Blackwood, Jerramungup council area to Albany and its northwestern corner to Central Wheatbelt. Roe also gained Esperance and Ravenshorpe council areas from the abolished seat of Eyre. These changes slightly reduced the Nationals margin against the Liberal Party from 16.9% to 16.7%.

History
The seat of Roe is primarily a successor to Wagin, which had existed since 1989, when it replaced Narrogin and Katanning-Roe. Narrogin had been created in 1950, when the original seat of Wagin was abolished. From the 1920s until today, the seats named Wagin and Narrogin have almost always been held by the Country and National parties.

There was also a previous seat of Roe which was primarily replaced by Eyre in 2008. Roe had a long history of being held by the Country/National parties until 1974, and again since 1989, but the seat in this area has been held by the Liberal Party since 2005.

Wagin was first won in 1911 by Sydney Stubbs, who joined the newly-formed Liberal Party shortly after the election. He joined the nascent Country Party prior to the 1917 election. A split in the Country Party in 1923 saw Stubbs join the Nationalists for three years before the Country Party reformed in 1927. He stayed with the Country Party from 1927 until his retirement in 1947.

The Country Party’s Crawford Nalder won Wagin in 1947, and moved to the new seat of Katanning (also in the current seat of Roe) when Wagin was abolished in 1950. Katanning had been held by the Country Party since about 1917, and Nalder held it until 1974.

A new seat of Narrogin was also created in 1950, and it was also a safe Country Party seat. Narrogin and Katanning (renamed Katanning-Roe in 1983) were both solid Country/National seats until the mid-1980s, when both sitting members joined the Liberal Party. A breakaway Nationals party had merged with the National Country Party, but the NCP’s remaining members, including the two members representing this area. Both of these MPs were defeated at the 1986 election.

Katanning-Roe was won in 1986 by Monty House, and Narrogin was won by Cambell Nalder, son of the former MP. The younger Nalder died in 1987, and the by-election was won by Bob Weise, another Nationals candidate.

Katanning-Roe and Narrogin were both abolished in 1989, with most of their territory absorbed by Wagin. Weise took over Wagin, and House moved to the seat of Stirling. House held Stirling until his retirement in 2005.

Weise held Wagin until his retirement in 2001, serving as a minister from 1993 until 1997.

The Nationals’ Terry Waldron has held Wagin since 2001. Waldron has held Wagin for four terms. He served as deputy leader of the Nationals from 2001 until 2013, and as a minister from 2008 to 2014.

Roe was held by a succession of Country Party MPs from 1950 until 1974, when it was won by Liberal candidate Geoff Grewar. Roe was abolished in 1983, and was recreated in 1989. The new Roe was won by the Nationals’ Ross Ainsworth in 1989. Ainsworth held the seat until his defeat by Liberal candidate Graham Jacobs in 2005.

Jacobs moved to the new seat of Eyre in 2008, and became a minister following the election. Jacobs continued in the ministry until 2010. Jacobs narrowly defeated his Nationals rival for Eyre in 2013.

Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP Terry Waldron (Wagin) is not running for re-election. Sitting Liberal MP Graham Jacobs (Eyre) is running for Roe.

• Graham Jacobs (Liberal)
• Peter Stacey (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
• Tony Fels (Independent)
• Eketerina Zacklova (One Nation)
• Peter Rundle (Nationals)
• Simone Mcinnes (Greens)
• Bradley Willis (Labor)
• Cathie Kelly (Australian Christians)

Assessment
While Jacobs is a strong Liberal candidate, and the seat partly replaces a marginal Liberal seat, most of the seat is reasonably safe for the Nationals and they are likely to retain the seat.

2013 result – Wagin

2013 two-candidate-preferred result – Wagin

2013 two-party-preferred result – Wagin

2013 result – Eyre

2013 two-candidate-preferred result – Eyre

2013 two-party-preferred result – Eyre

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts. Polling places which were previously contained in the seat of Eyre (including Esperance) have been grouped as “east”, while those areas which have come from the former seat of Wagin have been split into north-west and south-west.

The Nationals won around 78-79% of the two-candidate-preferred vote against the Liberal Party in the north-west and south-west, with a narrow 52% majority in the east.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 10% in the north-west to 12.2% in the south-west.

Election results in Roe at the 2013 WA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Liberal) and Labor primary votes.