Narre Warren North – Victoria 2022

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  1. I wouldn’t be surprised if this seat fell to the Liberals given there was a bit of a swing to the Liberals in Bruce and nearby La Trobe (even though none of La Trobe is in this seat it’s not a dissimilar area). Not sure the effect of Luke Donellan’s branch stacking will have, I doubt many people from this sort of area would be aware of this, but it certainly can’t help. I know he isn’t running but it could damage the Labor brand locally. Probably unlikely in this electorate which I feel isn’t particularly politically engaged, but could play a small part.

  2. Interestingly when Narre Warren North and South were created in 2002 they were both notionally Liberal but were won by the Labor party and have been held by Labor ever since. I wonder what the boundaries were at the time, did both seats extend further east, did Narre Warren North go further north.

  3. I suspect branchstacking scandals come to the attention of very few voters and influence even fewer.

  4. @North East

    From 2002 to present, Narre Warren North has:
    • lost part of Berwick,
    • gained the balance of Narre Warren and Hallam (the old boundaries excluded a large chunk of the area around Fountain Gate),
    • gained the balance of Endeavour Hills (old boundaries excluded the northwestern corner).

  5. @ North East, Agreed with Nicholas. Also I feel Narre Warren North is more Liberal leaning than Narre Warren South . The latter seat has improved significantly with a lot of Berwick transferred out to the new seat of the same name. Narre Warren North is also a more affluent seat as it is closer to the foothills and has some massive brick palaces of its northern fringes. I feel the recent redistribution has actually slightly improved it for the Libs. Lysterfield South (used to be in Rowville) but has no booth (I estimate if it did would be one of the strongest booths in this part of Melbourne). Lysterfield South would in IMV be the wealthiest suburb in Outer South East Melbourne excluding Beachside ones like Mt Eliza etc Also the James Cook PS booth is 70% but last time would have had voters from Doveton as well. On the other hand Narre Warren South does not really have any affluent areas only growth areas and working class Hampton Park. Narre Warren North it is really only Hallam that is working class and rock solid Labor

  6. @Nicholas Thanks for the info, having Berwick in this seat definitely would’ve helped the Libs here, especially as i don’t think the new estates had been built there by 2002.

    @Nimalan Agreed that Narre Warren North has some affluent areas, the suburb of Narre Warren North is pretty affluent in itself. It’s interesting that Lysterfield South doesn’t usually have a booth, did it have one at the federal election. I find this is the same with Eaglemont, sometimes it has a booth and sometimes it doesn’t. If Lysterfield South doesn’t have a booth at this state election then it’s likely that the Endeavours Hills booths will become a bit less friendly for Labor although Lysterfield Souths population isn’t very big so overall it may not have a massive effect on the election result.

  7. @ North East, Lysterfield South did not have a booth at the federal election either which is a shame as these booths are often an outlier and interesting to analyse. Narre Warren East (Yarra Ranges) which is semi-rural also did not have a booth at the recent federal election but did at the last state and this often of one the most lopsided booths. Other booths that i wish existed include the Scotland Island booth in Mackellar or Christmas Hills (McEwen) both of which existed in the past and were interesting as well.

  8. The Libs need to make inroads in these areas if they want to be a credible force, but the problem is all their organisation and people is still centred on Hawthorn and Key.

  9. @Nimalan Yes i have a feeling Christmas Hills would be a booth with a high Green vote but one where the Libs could be competitive in normal election cycles.


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