Mornington – Victoria 2022

LIB 5.0%

Incumbent MP
David Morris, since 2006.

Geography
Southern fringe of Melbourne. Mornington covers northern parts of Mornington Peninsula Shire on the southern edge of Melbourne. It specifically covers the suburbs of Moorooduc, Mornington, Mount Eliza, Mount Martha and parts of Balnarring North.

Redistribution
No change.

History

Mornington first existed as a single-member electoral district from 1859 to 1967, and again since 1985. The original seat was held by unaligned members until the 1920s, and it was then held by the Country Party and the Liberal Party until its abolition in 1967.

The newly restored seat was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Robin Cooper. He served as a shadow minister from 1985 to 1991, before moving to the back bench.

Cooper became a Parliamentary Secretary in the Kennett government after the 1996 election, and joined Kennett’s ministry in 1997. He again stepped down from the frontbench after the 1999 election defeat, and retired in 2006.

Mornington was won by Liberal candidate David Morris in 2006, and Morris has been re-elected three times.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP David Morris is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Mornington should stay in Liberal hands.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Morris Liberal 20,963 50.6 -8.2
Ryan White Labor 14,204 34.3 +7.0
David Sinclair Greens 4,060 9.8 -1.9
Tyson Jack Animal Justice 2,208 5.3 +5.3
Informal 1,964 4.5 +0.5

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Morris Liberal 22,775 55.0 -7.6
Ryan White Labor 18,638 45.0 +7.6

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the vote in the south (50.1%) and north (55.5%) while Labor polled 54% in the centre.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote around 9-10% in all three areas.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 9.9 50.1 6,658 16.1
North 9.4 55.5 5,804 14.0
Central 9.8 46.0 4,063 9.8
Pre-poll 9.2 58.1 19,200 46.3
Other votes 12.1 56.2 5,710 13.8

Election results in Mornington at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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57 COMMENTS

  1. Daniel, I dont think it was Kate lardner who lost preselection here. Chris crewther beat incumbent mp David Morris for the nomination.

    You may be thinking of Brighton as that is where an unsuccessful preselection challenger ran as an independent.

  2. Mornington 2022 under OPV by using the same preference flows:

    Lib: 17,910 + 1,366 = 19,276
    Ind: 9,432 + 4,522 = 13,954

    Lib pref: 3,416
    Ind pref: 11,304
    Pref flow: 76.79% Ind, 23.21% Lib
    Pref total: 14,720

    OPV pref flow: 9.28% Lib, 30.72% Ind, 60% exhausted
    Unexhausted votes: 33,230

    2CP: LIB 8.0% v IND

  3. ian……. in calc opv result which will be rough anyway…. you must look at circs where preferences can be directed. lib to Nats and visa versa but there will be some leakage. Alp to green and visa a versa. Alp and green to teal.. there will be some tactical voting as well as they realise their candidate cannot win. Also Labor to ex sff indepenents (nsw). The exhaust rate in your calculation will be lower

  4. Hi Mick, to get the most accurate result possible, I used the VEC preference distribution and translated that into the remaining 40%. I assumed a 60% exhaustion rate because that has been the case in NSW for a number of years now. Any leakage would be accounted for in the preference distribution. After the results in North Shore, Willoughby etc. are finalized in 2023, I can redo it accordingly and compare.
    https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2022-state-election-results/results-by-district/mornington-district-results/mornington-results-distribution

  5. There is nothing wrong with your calcs. But I think there will.be a lower exhaustion rate than your calcs assume. For nsw 2023 will be better than 2019 for Labor

  6. Ok, I did a lower 55% exhaustion rate:
    OPV pref flow: 10.44% Lib, 34.56% Ind, 55% exhausted
    Unexhausted votes: 33,966
    2CP: LIB 7.3% (7.25) v IND

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