Cranbourne – Victoria 2022

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  1. The federal election results do not bode well for Labor here. Big swings across the Cranbourne area.

  2. Labor would have won this seat comfortably on federal figures. The small swing in Holt can be put down to retirement of the sitting member after more than two decades service.

  3. In the federal seat of Holt, there were big swings away from both the ALP and LIB. In the Cranbourne area, PHON and UAP got swings to them. A lot of the votes went back to Labor via preferences. I’m guessing that pandemic politics weighed a lot. Most of the largest swings away from Labor were in safe Labor seats in outer Melbourne.

    I don’t expect either PHON nor UAP to be as influential at the state election. Neither of them ran in 2018 and they usually don’t do well at state elections except in QLD.


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