Carrum – Victoria 2022

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  1. Labor federal suffered small swings against them in the Dunkley in the safe labor booths but gained ground in the liberal friendly part.

  2. @Bob Maybe it’s the new wealth of those suburbs.
    Maybe someone can clarify for me but I’ve seen comments on this website that this area is actually becoming more affluent around the more working class areas. Is this the case, is it just younger people buying where they can afford. Are people knocking down houses and building bigger ones. If there is a shift it will be interesting to see voting patterns and what trend is s

  3. Can confirm, Carrum/Seaford is rapidly becoming fairly affluent as younger professional types move in (flow-on from Mordialloc, Chelsea etc).

  4. Thanks for the insight @Expat. This might not help the Liberals now but maybe in the long-term as those professionals become older (the current Liberals seem to be off putting to younger generations).

  5. When was the last time in Australian politics that a seat becoming more affluent made it flip to Liberal?

    Gentrification seems to be a progressive vote driver all over the world. In Australian politics the main vote shift that seems to happen with gentrification is an increased Green vote, which flows strongly to Labor. That’s a factor of inner city gentrification (more renters and sharehouses, people who use public and active transport, etc.). but someone who moves to an area with a rough or downmarket reputation would tend to be a lot more open minded, and it flows from there.

    Carrum is outer suburban. But being near the beach, and the Frankston line giving it a decent level of public transport, implies a different kind of likestyle to Endeavour Hills. It’s not picket fences, it’s people still imagining regular bike rides and drinks in the city. I think that means the people moving in are more Labor/Green tinged.

    One other thing to consider is that the Greens have been around for long enough to win over long term voters. It’s possible for first home buyer and young families demographics, people in their mid 30s, to have voted Green at every election since they could vote, and in Melbourne maybe they’re moving out of inner city share houses and apartments to do so.

    Not seeing the Liberals pick this one up, and I don’t think the Sandbelt is their path back to government. Kind of hard to see a way forward for Liberals but I think they’ll pick up seats like Cranbourne and the Narre Warrens before this one.

  6. Chisholm 2016
    Senate Seat (6th) Victoria 2019
    Senate Seat (6th) South Australia 2022
    In state politics Carrum 2010.
    Would you accept Fowler (independent Liberal)?

  7. @John, Suburban gentrification can help the Liberal party and a good example of this is Carrum. The other example is East Hills (NSW) or maybe Drommoyne (NSW). For example the Libs did not win Carrum in the 1992 Landslide they did win it against the trend barely in 1996. In 2010 and 2014 which were both close elections the Coallition TPP in Carrum was higher than the statewide result. East Hills and the federal division of Banks show the same trend often swinging to the Libs against the state trend. Even in Manamara there has been a long term increase in the Liberal vote around Port Melbourne, South Melbourne as i stated in the Macnamara thread. Look at the Sandridge booth specifically and compare the 2004 and 2022 results.

  8. Up until 2018, it was the case that gentrifying areas were increasingly voting Lib (or Green in the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne). With the fall of Turnbull, the direction has changed with the gentrifying and increasingly affluent areas switching to increasingly voting Labor/Greens particularly in Melbourne while the poorer areas are being more supportive to the Libs.

  9. North East,
    If you look at the swings to the ALP they were in the previously held Liberal booths whereas in the safe Labor booths Liberals made some small ground. It doesn’t have to do with the gentrification which I am well aware that its becoming more affluent, I was more pointing out that the working class areas have being leaving the ALP.

  10. @Bob fair point.
    @John Aston? Also haven’t a couple of Sydney seats such as Banks and Hughes become more affluent and Liberal.
    We’ve seen the green vote increase with gentrification because most of the gentrification we’ve seen has been in the inner city where it was more affordable due to its rough nature so younger people in their early 20s moved to apartments or units there. How many people in their early 20s would be moving to Carrum.
    Also the sandbelt pretty much has to be their path, it’s usually marginal swinging territory. They would have to at least pick up some seats in this area.
    @Dan M In regard to gentrifying areas getting better for the Libs wasn’t Macnamara at fed and Albert Park at state becoming more competitive before the dumping of Turnbull.

  11. @ North East, 100% Agreed with your commentary regarding increasing affluence and Liberal vote. I could also add Cook decades earlier was mortgage belt and marginal and Casey (suburban part) which Labor has not won since 1983 despite favourable boundaries at the last two elections. IMHO if Turnbull was the leader in 2019 and Danby ran again McaNamara would have fallen to the Libs. Parts of Reid around the Waterfront has also seen gentrification and increased Liberal vote and IMHO if it was not for the Hawkish stance on China, Reid could have been retained by the Libs.

  12. @Nimalan Yes thank you i forgot about Cook, it was a competitive seat in in the 70s as the Libs won the new seat first in 1969 but lost in 1972 and then have held it ever since 1975. The Libs came within couple hundred votes of losing it in 1983 and it didn’t reach a TPP of 60+ until 1996 when it had 8.81% swing to the Libs. Yes, hasn’t the eastern part of Reid really firmed up for the Libs recently which overlaps with the state seat of Drummyone. If the Libs had a more socially progressive slant with Turnbull in 2019 they could’ve definitely had a chance with seats like Macnamara and kept competitive in seats like Jagajaga. They also wouldn’t have lost their Eastern Melbourne and North/Eastern Sydney seats.


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