Like Bayswater I think that ALP still has a chance of holding on her due to Jordan Crugnale personally vote.
Agree, there is a strong chance of Jordan holding the seat. There are some favourable demographic trends here for Labor. There is increased population growth around Clyde with the new housing estates and increased ethnic diversity there. While the Southern part of Bass coast around San Remo, Inverloch is seeing a sea change demographic which has accelerated after Covid. Cape Woolamai has often said to be the next Byron Bay. Expect both parties to visit the area and look out for a Clyde Rail extension promise.
If Davies had run as Labor candidate in 2002 she would have won. 2022: isn’t sitting Labor MP contesting Pakenham? Interesting to see that Labor’s winning margin last time came from south where memory of coal mining at Wonthaggi persists 50+ years after mine was closed.
Aaron Brown – former deputy mayor of South Gippsland Shire – is endorsed Liberal candidate for Bass.
Labor could hold on here or I should gain here as the local member is popular which will help.
@Bob Jordan Crugnale was/is popular as a former councillor and that helped her win the seat last time. The thing is wasn’t part of this seat that’s rural lumped in with Melbourne for lockdowns despite been rural and neighbouring suburbs didn’t have the same restrictions.
The use of municipal boundaries to determine the metropolitan area did include the northern part of this seat (although the similar boundary issues in Narracan and the division of Little River was the bits that got media attention, that I am aware of). However, the vast majority of the seats population live outside the effected areas.
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Like Bayswater I think that ALP still has a chance of holding on her due to Jordan Crugnale personally vote.
Agree, there is a strong chance of Jordan holding the seat. There are some favourable demographic trends here for Labor. There is increased population growth around Clyde with the new housing estates and increased ethnic diversity there. While the Southern part of Bass coast around San Remo, Inverloch is seeing a sea change demographic which has accelerated after Covid. Cape Woolamai has often said to be the next Byron Bay. Expect both parties to visit the area and look out for a Clyde Rail extension promise.
If Davies had run as Labor candidate in 2002 she would have won. 2022: isn’t sitting Labor MP contesting Pakenham? Interesting to see that Labor’s winning margin last time came from south where memory of coal mining at Wonthaggi persists 50+ years after mine was closed.
Jordan Crugnale running in Bass.
See link below.
https://pakenham.starcommunity.com.au/news/2021-12-10/jordan-recontests-bass/
It is her home area so it makes sense.
Aaron Brown – former deputy mayor of South Gippsland Shire – is endorsed Liberal candidate for Bass.
Labor could hold on here or I should gain here as the local member is popular which will help.
@Bob Jordan Crugnale was/is popular as a former councillor and that helped her win the seat last time. The thing is wasn’t part of this seat that’s rural lumped in with Melbourne for lockdowns despite been rural and neighbouring suburbs didn’t have the same restrictions.
The use of municipal boundaries to determine the metropolitan area did include the northern part of this seat (although the similar boundary issues in Narracan and the division of Little River was the bits that got media attention, that I am aware of). However, the vast majority of the seats population live outside the effected areas.
@Tom the first and best Thanks for the info.