Gippsland South – Victoria 2018

NAT 15.7%

Incumbent MP
Danny O’Brien, since 2015.

Geography
Southeastern Victoria. The seat covers South Gippsland Shire and southern parts of Wellington Shire, and covers the towns of Foster, Korumburra, Leongatha, Mirboo North, Port Albert, Port Welshpool, Rosedale, Sale, Venus Bay and Yarram.

History
Gippsland South has existed continuously as a Legislative Assembly district since 1859. Apart from one term in the 1970s, the seat has been held by the Country/National Party continuously since 1929.

The seat was won in a 1922 by-election by Nationalist candidate Walter West. He lost his seat in 1927 to independent Henry Bodman, who died seven months after winning the seat. In the ensuing by-election, West regained his seat.

In 1929, West lost to the Country Party’s Herbert Hyland in 1929. He served as a minister in a number of governments from 1936 to 1952. In 1955 he was elected Leader of the Country Party. He served in this role until 1964, and held his seat until his death in 1970.

Gippsland South was won in 1970 by the Liberal Party’s James Taylor. He held the seat for one term before losing in 1973. He later served a term as an MLC for Gippsland province from 1976 to 1982.

The seat was won in 1973 by Neil McInnes of the Country Party. He switched to the Liberal Party in 1980, and lost his seat at the next election in 1982.

Tom Wallace won the seat in 1982 and held it until his retirement in 1992.

Peter Ryan won the seat in 1992. He remained a backbencher for the extent of the Kennett government, but he was elected Leader of the National Party after the 1999 election, and immediately moved to end the coalition agreement with the Liberal Party. Ryan led the Nationals at the 2002 and 2006 elections, and in 2008 restored the Liberal-National coalition.

In 2010, the Liberal-National coalition won power in Victoria. Ryan served as Deputy Premier in the Baillieu and Napthine governments, as well as serving in a variety of portfolios. Peter Ryan stepped down as Nationals leader shortly after the Coalition lost power at the 2014 election, and resigned from Parliament in February 2015.

Nationals candidate Danny O’Brien won the 2015 by-election.

Candidates

• Danny O’Brien (Nationals)
• Ian Onley (Greens)
• Denise Ryan (Labor)

Assessment
Gippsland South is a safe Nationals seat.

2014 result

2014 two-party-preferred result

2015 by-election result

2015 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gippsland South have been divided into four areas: east, north-east, south and west. East and North-East are contained within Wellington Shire, while South and West are in South Gippsland Shire.

The Nationals won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas at the 2014 election, ranging from 60.7% in the south to 72.2% in the east.

At the 2015 by-election, the Nationals primary vote ranged from 43.3% in the south to 51.6% in the east. The Liberal Party came second, with a primary vote ranging from 21.3% in the west to 30.1% in the north-east. The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 11.2% in the north-east to 24.5% in the south.

2014 booth breakdown

2017 by-election booth breakdown

Two-party-preferred votes in Gippsland South at the 2014 Victorian state election

Nationals primary votes at the 2015 Polwarth by-election

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