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Tony Piccolo, sitting MLA for Light since 2006, to run in Ngadjuri in 2026:
https://www.premier.sa.gov.au/media-releases/news-items/tony-piccolo-to-run-for-ngadjuri
Feels like SA Labor is jumping the gun a little bit. Just because the electorate’s much more marginal than last election doesn’t necessarily mean Labor’s going to win it. And Piccolo’s vote base is mostly in Gawler which is in Light and they risk losing that seat too if they move Piccolo to a newer, less friendly electorate.
Agree Tommo, although I think Light is safe even without Piccolos personal vote. The seat is now solely Gawler whereas in previous elections (especially in 2006 when Piccolo won it for the first time) it contained some surrounding rural areas.
The margin is currently over 10% and considered a safe seat unlike previous elections where it was marginal.
Tony is doing the right thing by labor
Why is Piccolo moving here? His base in Gawler (strong for Labor) is a far cry from the Clare Valley here in Ngadjuri. In addition the seat is still notionally-Liberal and I doubt it would flip even with a pretty terrible state party.
I’d say to try and overcome the small liberal margin and win them an extra seat. This could backfire and cost them a 20year mp.
James, reading the announcement from Piccolo I understand he is contesting the seat because he grew up in that area (similar to ex Wakefield and Spence MP Nick champion who was born in Kapunda). Although how much residual support he can still get is unknown and I think he should just stay put in Light.
Surely the odds of Labor winning Ngadjuri with Piccolo are much greater than the odds of Labor losing Light without him, thus from the perspective of Labor winning seats, his decision is a net positive. Maybe he has plans if he loses. He’s been around a long time. Perhaps he sees it as that he’ll either be a hero or get to retire.
I think this might be close. Labor’s position in the polls since the 2022 state election has improved. Unfortunately for the libs sa is dominated by seats in Adelaide which labor overwhelmingly controls. And the libs have lost half a dozen seats to inds in the regions. Theoretically there could be more inds the liberals at the next election. Would they then be the opposition or?
John – even if the independents happen to outnumber the Liberals if they lose badly, it could be similar to NT post the 2016 landslide where the CLP still formed the Opposition even though they had only 2 seats compared to 5 independents.
@yoh right i suppose because the inds arent a party and are just 6 indivisuals. as opposed to the 2 people from on epraty
@Yoh An – makes sense, but I still feel he has that name base in Light that I’m sceptical him contesting here will pay off. Yes SA Labor is doing good in polls right now but there’s no guarantee that by 2026 they will be doing enough to gain new seats, especially in Ngadjuri which is a pretty conservative seat.
After the federal election results, I did an attempt at calculating the results here based on the overlapping booths in Grey, Barker, and a small part of Spence. I also used all the declaration votes cast in Frome in 2022, and the Gawler PPVC in Spence.
Obviously this isn’t perfect, but the results I calculated:
Noti
Total Votes: 23533
LIB: 12624 (53.6%)
ALP: 10909 (46.4%)
Margin: 3.6% LIB
LIB Swing: +0.4
I will say I don’t know if these results are necessarily reliable for 2026, considering Labor is running an incumbent MP from another seat and are polling very highly at the moment. However in 2022 in Frome an independent polled 16.6%. If she doesn’t run, the Liberals could pick up some of those votes. In addition Penny Pratt being a first term MP means there is a slim chance because of the current political environment she might be able to gain back some votes.
Here is also a results map I created using polling place data on Adobe Illustrator. Again this is my first time so obviously won’t be perfect but I still have gut feeling it is mostly accurate.
Link: https://jumpshare.com/v/r3tbUeS0v1KGWXzF9Adv
Notional Margin: 3.2%*
@Tommo9
I think it is actually a good idea for Tony Piccolo to move to this seat. Piccolo is a great MP but i think Light is now Safe Labor due to demographic change and it will be able to have renewal in that seat. I think Light may even one day be a Labor Hearland seat as it moves from country town to Working class outer suburb.