IND 13.1% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Troy Bell, 2014-2025.
Geography
South-eastern corner of South Australia. Mount Gambier covers the Mount Gambier and Grant local government areas. Most of the population lies within the town of Mount Gambier.
History
The electorate of Mount Gambier has existed continuously since 1938, although the seat changed name to Gordon from 1993 to 2002. The seat has been represented by three independent MPs, and apart from those was won by the ALP prior to 1975 and by the Liberal Party after that date.
Independent MP John Fletcher held the seat for twenty years, from 1938 to 1958.
Labor MP Ron Ralston held the seat from 1958 to 1962, followed by Labor MP Allan Burdon from 1962 to 1975.
Harold Allison was the seat’s only Liberal MP, holding the seat for eighteen years from 1975 to 1993, and then held the renamed electorate of Gordon for one more term, until 1997.
Allison retired in 1997, and Scott Dixon defeated Mount Gambier council chairman Rory McEwen for Liberal preselection. McEwen ran as an independent, and narrowly overtook the ALP for second place on primary votes, and then narrowly defeated Dixon on Labor preferences.
McEwen easily won re-election at the 2002 election, with the electorate renamed from Gordon back to Mount Gambier. He did not support the Labor government immediately after the election, but in November 2002 accepted a new ministerial position in the Labor-led minority government.
McEwen won re-election in 2006 with a reduced margin, and again joined the ministry in the Rann government, despite the ALP holding a comfortable majority in the House of Assembly.
McEwen resigned from the ministry in 2009, and retired at the 2010 election.
At the 2010 election, the contest was between the two mayors covering the electorate: Liberal candidate and Mount Gambier mayor Steve Perryman and independent candidate and Grant mayor Don Pegler. Pegler narrowly won.
Pegler lost in 2014 to Liberal candidate Troy Bell. Bell resigned from the Liberal Party in 2017 over allegations aired at the state ICAC. Bell was re-elected in 2018 and 2022 as an independent.
Bell was convicted of charges of theft and dishonest dealing with documents in September 2024. Bell lost his appeal in August 2025, and resigned from parliament soon after.
Assessment
Mount Gambier had previously switched between independent and Liberal MPs before Troy Bell’s tenure. With Bell leaving the seat, it would typically be expected that the Liberal Party would be favourites to regain the seat. But the Liberal Party is in a very weak position in South Australia, so that is not guaranteed.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Troy Bell | Independent | 10,135 | 45.7 | +7.0 |
| Ben Hood | Liberal | 6,433 | 29.0 | +5.0 |
| Katherine Davies | Labor | 4,578 | 20.6 | +10.8 |
| Peter Heaven | Family First | 1,032 | 4.7 | +4.7 |
| Informal | 689 | 3.0 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Troy Bell | Independent | 14,001 | 63.1 | +2.9 |
| Ben Hood | Liberal | 8,177 | 36.9 | -2.9 |
Booths in Mount Gambier have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Mount Gambier urban area have been split into east and west, with the rural remainder grouped as Grant.
Independent MP Troy Bell won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.9% in Mount Gambier West to 63.5% in Grant.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16.8% in Grant to 24.4% in Mount Gambier East.
| Voter group | ALP prim | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Grant | 16.8 | 63.5 | 4,501 | 20.3 |
| Mt Gambier East | 24.4 | 62.3 | 4,433 | 20.0 |
| Mt Gambier West | 23.8 | 61.9 | 2,834 | 12.8 |
| Other votes | 19.8 | 63.6 | 10,410 | 46.9 |
Election results in Mount Gambier at the 2022 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Troy Bell, the Liberal Party and Labor.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-28/sa-mp-troy-bell-loses-appeal-against-jury-verdict/105702418
By-election on the way here, unless they want to leave the seat vacant until next March.
Would be pretty rude to leave a seat vacanr for 6+ months. It is close to 15% of the parliamentary term.
It’s happened before. There were two NSW state by-elections in October 2014 when the state election was due for March 2015.
Labor hasn’t won here since 1973, back in the Dunstan years… given the way rural South Australia has largely trended Liberal since then, I’d say a by-election would be a Liberal pick up, but this is assuming another independent doesn’t run.
I’ll wait for the candidates to be announced before making any predictions.
With the independent out of the way the libs should win this back. Could they just leave the seat vacant given how close the general election is? I don’t think there is any provision to hold it within any certain timeframe. I think in 2014 the nsw govt held those by elections so people could get their anger out of their system and not having it as an issue overshadowing the election. I expect a similar issue will happen in qld in 2028 if labor decides to go full term and Katter doesnt recontest and Robbie runs in Kennedy
This looks like a similar situation as Kiama in NSW. An incumbent with a strong personal vote gets into legal trouble. Runs as an independent and wins the next election. Is forced to resign once the legal situation concludes. Given the dynamics of the seat it would appear that the Liberals would be in a strong position to win the seat back. That said, the seat has a recent history of electing Independents. Byes are wonky – I assume one will be called there is no reason practically or politically for it to remain vacant. I would expect a strong Lib v Ind race before any Labor candidate.
Liberal gain – the even if Troy had a strong personal vote (clearly he did) I can’t imagine an IND successor would be looking for his blessing and therefore would basically have to come from nowhere to take the seat.
They may just decide to leave the seat vacant. The election is only 6 months out and it won’t effect the govt. And it’s neither a govt seat or a opposition seat atm
I wonder if Nicole Flint will run here. I always says she is a better fit for Barker than Boothby given that she is socially conservative and Boothby is a Tealish seat.
@Nimalan – I agree, especially considering the fact she is coincidentally from the South East of SA. However the Liberals have an endorsed candidate for 2026 here (Lamorna Alexander) who would logically be the best fit to run if a by-election were to occur. But obviously never say never.
The seat has been held almost continuously by Independent since 1997 minus those few years Troy was a Liberal. The seat is notionally safe for the Libs in 2PP with Labor. Given Flint’s ties to the Christian right and Antic plus what could be a rough election for the Liberals I could see an Independent being very competitive. She might be considered a parachute since she is mostly associated with Boothby which is far away.
@ James, i would actually prefer she runs for this seat or Barker in the future and stay clear of Boothby/Sturt. Those seats should be represented by moderates I dont think he ties to Christian Right and Antic will hurt in Mount Gambier it is fairly conserative area and Barker had a low vote for SSM.
Troy Bell has resigned. Nevertheless, a by-election will not be held, and the seat will remain unfilled until the state election.
If Labor runs dead, and a credible independent shows up, you’d have to think this might be a Liberal gain in 2026.
Doesn’t show up I mean*