LIB 22.6%
Incumbent MP
Nick McBride (IND), since 2018.
Geography
South-eastern parts of South Australia. MacKillop stretches from the mouth of the Murray River to the border with the seat of Mount Gambier at the south-eastern corner of the state. The seat covers Bordertown, Naracoorte, Penola, Keith, Millicent and Tintinara.
History
The electorate of MacKillop was created in 1993, as a renaming of the former seat of Victoria, which had existed continuously since 1965.
William Rodda won Victoria at the 1965 election for the Liberal and Country League, and held the seat until his retirement in 1985.
The Liberal Party’s Dale Baker won Victoria in 1985. Baker served as Liberal leader from 1990 to 1992, but didn’t lead the party to an election.
Baker was re-elected to the renamed seat of MacKillop in 1993, but four years later lost the seat to independent candidate Mitch Williams.
Williams joined the Liberal Party in 1999, and was re-elected as a Liberal MP at the next four elections. Williams served as Liberal Party deputy leader from 2010 to 2012.
Williams retired in 2018, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Nick McBride. McBride was re-elected in 2022.
McBride resigned from the Liberal Party in 2023.
- Mark Braes (Labor)
- Nick McBride (Independent)
- Jonathan Pietzsch (Nationals)
- Rebekah Rosser (Liberal)
- Jason Virgo (One Nation)
Assessment
MacKillop would traditionally have been a safe Liberal seat. But the Liberal Party is particularly weak right now, and the sitting MP has become an independent. McBride seems like the favourite to retain his seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick McBride | Liberal | 14,623 | 62.3 | +6.8 |
| Mark Braes | Labor | 4,703 | 20.0 | +10.0 |
| Pam Giehr | One Nation | 1,892 | 8.1 | +8.1 |
| Dayle Baker | Family First | 1,139 | 4.9 | +4.9 |
| Jonathan Pietzsch | Nationals | 1,109 | 4.7 | +4.7 |
| Informal | 851 | 3.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick McBride | Liberal | 17,048 | 72.6 | -2.6 |
| Mark Braes | Labor | 6,418 | 27.4 | +2.6 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.3% in the south to 77.7% in the centre.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 75.3 | 5,967 | 25.4 |
| South | 63.3 | 5,648 | 24.1 |
| Central | 77.7 | 4,391 | 18.7 |
| Other votes | 74.7 | 7,460 | 31.8 |
Election results in MacKillop at the 2022 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Mackillop MP Nick McBride has been arrested and charged with assault, possible by-election incoming?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-14/sa-mp-nick-mcbride-arrested-and-charged-with-assault/105171922
Will this be the third Labor by election gain from the Libs in a row?
Doesn’t matter how well Labor is doing, they are never gaining this seat.
Most likely they don’t contest the by-election. Maybe an independent or Nationals can make this interesting.
Labor could win all of the Adelaide seats in 2026, but not regional ones like MacKillop.
@Dan M – no way in hell Labor will win Mackillop. Even if they are getting an exceptionally-high 2PP this seat is absolutely bulletproof.
I agree with @James, Labor can’t win this.
As for Adelaide I think if the election was held today Labor would win every seat there except Bragg.
Very possible Liberal gain here with the IND facing assualt charges
I actually will go here and say I think the Liberals will win here and in Mount Gambier.
– MacKillop is held by Nick McBride but he’s got some level of notoriety with the recent assault charges which could damage his reputation. You could also argue that this is a seat the current state of the Liberals is currently appealing to so theoretically they could do well here. Labor cannot win here, full stop.
– Mount Gambier is interesting as Troy Bell has resigned and this seat will have no state representation until the next election. The Liberals have already endorsed a candidate, and I’d say any independent would be praying to not get the endorsement of Bell. I’d tip a Liberal gain for now but wouldn’t be surprised if Labor come close. Don’t really know if there’s any sort of prominent independent here but open to hear any thoughts.
Appears the incumbent has been charged with assault over a new DV incident. This seat is almost certainly going to go Liberal, Labor had already ruled out a preference deal with McBride
Given how unpopular the Liberals are and that there former member is in trouble Labor could narrow this up and make it very uncomfortably close, the Liberals will need to sandbag this.
Labor has chosen its 2022 candidate Mark Braes here again. Quite odd for them to have preselected a candidate for a seat with a 20%+ 2PP margin against them.
So I somewhat have to agree with @SpaceFish that this seat will likely swing to Labor on the back of the state government’s popularity, albeit I don’t feel they could win here.
Personally, I’d favour the Liberals to regain here, especially with the charges against McBride which would definitely make it tougher to sell himself to the electorate. However I’m not 100% certain.
See my post on Chaffey except here the liberals are split…….unlikely alp gain or McBride retain