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Mackillop MP Nick McBride has been arrested and charged with assault, possible by-election incoming?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-14/sa-mp-nick-mcbride-arrested-and-charged-with-assault/105171922
Will this be the third Labor by election gain from the Libs in a row?
Doesn’t matter how well Labor is doing, they are never gaining this seat.
Most likely they don’t contest the by-election. Maybe an independent or Nationals can make this interesting.
Labor could win all of the Adelaide seats in 2026, but not regional ones like MacKillop.
@Dan M – no way in hell Labor will win Mackillop. Even if they are getting an exceptionally-high 2PP this seat is absolutely bulletproof.
I agree with @James, Labor can’t win this.
As for Adelaide I think if the election was held today Labor would win every seat there except Bragg.
Very possible Liberal gain here with the IND facing assualt charges
I actually will go here and say I think the Liberals will win here and in Mount Gambier.
– MacKillop is held by Nick McBride but he’s got some level of notoriety with the recent assault charges which could damage his reputation. You could also argue that this is a seat the current state of the Liberals is currently appealing to so theoretically they could do well here. Labor cannot win here, full stop.
– Mount Gambier is interesting as Troy Bell has resigned and this seat will have no state representation until the next election. The Liberals have already endorsed a candidate, and I’d say any independent would be praying to not get the endorsement of Bell. I’d tip a Liberal gain for now but wouldn’t be surprised if Labor come close. Don’t really know if there’s any sort of prominent independent here but open to hear any thoughts.