ALP 21.3%
Incumbent MP
Lee Odenwalder, since 2018. Previously member for Little Para 2010-2018.
Geography
Northern fringe of Adelaide. The electorate covers the suburbs of Elizabeth, Elizabeth East, Elizabeth Downs, Elizabeth Grove, Blakeview and Craigmore.
Redistribution
Elizabeth shifted west, losing Craigmore to King and gaining Elizabeth North and Smithfield from Taylor. These changes increased the Labor margin from 20.5% to 21.3%.
History
The seat of Elizabeth has existed since 1970, although it was renamed “Little Para” from 2006 to 2018. The electorate has mostly been won by Labor MPs, apart from a period of independent rule in the 1980s.
John Clark won the seat in 1970, and then the ALP’s Peter Duncan won Elizabeth in 1973.
Duncan served as Attorney-General from 1975 to 1979, and resigned from Elizabeth in 1984 to run for the federal seat of Makin. He served as a federal minister from 1987 to 1990, and held Makin until 1996.
The 1984 by-election was won by Elizabeth mayor Martyn Evans, running as an independent Labor candidate. He was re-elected as an independent at the 1985 and 1989 elections, and rejoined the ALP in 1993. He served as a minister in the dying days of the Labor government in 1992 and 1993.
Evans resigned from Elizabeth in 1994 to run for the federal Bonython by-election. Evans went on to serve as a Labor frontbencher from 1996 to 2001. At the 2004 election, Bonython was abolished and Evans ran unsuccessfully for the federal seat of Wakefield.
Lea Stevens was elected at the 1994 by-election. She won re-election in 1997, 2002 and in 2006 for the renamed electorate of Little Para. She served as a minister in the Rann government from 2002 to 2005.
Stevens retired in 2010, and Little Para was won by the ALP’s Lee Odenwalder. Odenwalder was re-elected in 2014, and twice more for the renamed Elizabeth.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Lee Odenwalder is not running for re-election.
- David Deex (Greens)
- Kym Hanton (One Nation)
- Ella Shaw (Labor)
Assessment
Elizabeth is a very safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Lee Odenwalder | Labor | 12,086 | 54.7 | +4.0 | 55.3 |
| Jake Fedczyszyn | Liberal | 4,281 | 19.4 | +1.4 | 18.9 |
| John Lutman | One Nation | 2,290 | 10.4 | +10.4 | 9.9 |
| Tracey Smallwood | Greens | 1,736 | 7.9 | +1.2 | 7.8 |
| John William Bennett | Family First | 1,705 | 7.7 | +7.7 | 7.8 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 884 | 3.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Lee Odenwalder | Labor | 15,590 | 70.5 | +3.3 | 71.3 |
| Jake Fedczyszyn | Liberal | 6,508 | 29.5 | -3.3 | 28.7 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north-east and south-west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 69.7% in the north-east to 75.3% in the south-west.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.3% in the centre and north-east to 11% in the south-west.
| Voter group | ON prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 9.3 | 69.7 | 5,923 | 27.3 |
| Central | 9.3 | 75.1 | 4,041 | 18.6 |
| South-West | 11.0 | 75.3 | 3,289 | 15.2 |
| Other votes | 10.1 | 69.1 | 8,444 | 38.9 |
Election results in Elizabeth at the 2022 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and One Nation.
It’s hard to be certain, but on federal results this could well be an ALP vs Greens 2CP, which is certainly surprising. Would not be surprised to see One Nation make the 2CP either, there’ll certainly be a grand battle to see who’ll get clobbered 70-30 by Labor.
Based on federal results, the Greens beat the Liberals at a number of polling booths on primary votes. However, the right-wing vote was quite split. Preference flows from One Nation, Family First and Trumpet of Patriots would’ve helped the Liberals.
At the state election, even if the Liberals primary vote falls, they might still finish second after preferences because the Greens and One Nation preference the Liberals ahead of each other.
Greens may trivially get into 2nd here or in other ultra safe Labor seats but would they be able to do anything with that status? I don’t see them putting resources into this seat
@ BNJ
They may get into 2nd in St Albans in Victoria as well. It is interesting as this is the opposite of the realignment theory this seat has very low education and is very disadvanataged.
Lee Odenwalder announced his retirement around 10 days ago, Labor has already preselected a new candidate, Ella Shaw.
Labor retain, and I do think there’s a chance the Greens could get second here, but they won’t come close to winning.
Elizabeth to Labor is like Mackillop or Chaffey to the Liberals. It will never flip even if hell comes close to freezing over. Greens economic policies will resonate here but social policies are just meh as the socioeconomic/education levels here are low for a metropolitan electorate. The Liberals’ brand are tarnished here thanks to the Federal brand led by Abbott dismantling Holden a decade ago.
@ Tommo9
I think Hastie is trying to appeal to Northern Adelaide with his Car video.
@Nimalan good luck to him for that but he’s going to be preaching to deaf ears because the northern suburbs are not as white bread as it was 10 or even 20 years ago. There’s a big and growing Muslim, African and SE Asian population in northern Adelaide. Hastie won’t be liked up there at all.
Tommo – would that make this area akin to other manufacturing heavy suburbs interstate that also have high CALD minority populations (places like Fairfield/Yennora in Sydney, Somerton/Roxburgh Park in Melbourne and Moorooka/Salisbury in Brisbane). These places would not be supportive of the Liberal Party that continues to support far right, culture war issues and it is a huge mistake for the Coalition to assume they would be like the rust belt towns in the US that backed Trump with ease.
@Yoh An Yes, probably moreso given that even without the CALD population, the Liberals have never been popular up this way because they’re perceived as anti-manufacturing and anti-blue collar despite Dutton and co trying to present otherwise during the last campaign. Everyone here knows it was under the Liberals that Holden went bust and moved away, there’s no flip side to it. The area’s one of the fastest growing but also one of the increasingly deprived areas of Adelaide. Only economic populism works well here and the Liberals aren’t well known for that.