ALP 0.8%
Incumbent MP
Cressida O’Hanlon, since 2024.
Geography
Eastern suburbs. Dunstan covers the suburbs of College Park, Evandale, Firle, Hackney, Joslin, Kent Town, Marden, Maylands, Payneham South, Royston Park, St Morris, St Peters, Stepney, Trinity Gardens, Beulah Park and Kensington. Most of the electorate lies in the Norwood Payneham and St Peters council area, as well as part of the Burnside council area.
History
The electorate of Norwood was first created at the 1938 election. For most of that period, the seat has been held by the ALP. The outgoing member was the first Liberal to win the seat at multiple elections. Norwood was renamed Dunstan in 2014.
From 1938 to 1953, the ALP’s Frank Nieass and the Liberal and Country League’s Albert Moir alternated in the seat, switching back and forth over four terms.
In 1953, Moir was replaced by the ALP’s Don Dunstan. Dunstan served as Deputy Premier from 1965 to 1967, and then as Premier from 1967 to 1968 and from 1970 to 1979, when he retired from Parliament.
The ALP’s Greg Crafter won the March 1979 Norwood by-election. He lost the seat at the September 1979 general election to the Liberal Party’s Frank Webster.
That result was invalidated in court, and Crafter won the seat back at a 1980 by-election.
Crafter held the seat throughout the 1980s, until the 1993 election.
In 1993, the Liberal Party’s John Cummins won the seat, and held it until 1997.
Vini Ciccarello won Norwood back for the ALP in 1997. She was re-elected in 2002 and 2006.
The Liberal Party’s Steven Marshall won the seat at the 2010 election off Ciccarello.
Marshall was promoted to the Liberal Party frontbench in December 2011. In October 2012, he was elected deputy leader as part of a challenge to Liberal leader Isobel Redmond.
Redmond resigned in January 2013, and in February Marshall was elected as Liberal leader. Marshall led the Liberal Party to the 2014 election, winning re-election in his renamed seat of Dunstan. Marshall’s party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote, but failed to form government in a hung parliament. Marshall continued to lead the opposition until 2018, when he led the Liberal Party to power and became Premier.
Marshall led the government for the next four years, but lost the subsequent state election in 2022. Marshall resigned in early 2024, and a slight swing to Labor saw them pick up Dunstan at the subsequent by-election.
- Anna Finizio (Liberal)
- Chris McDermott (Fair Game)
- Christel Mex (Greens)
- Cressida O’Hanlon (Labor)
Assessment
This seat was barely won by Labor at the most recent by-election, but current statewide polling suggests they should increase their margin in 2026.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Marshall | Liberal | 11,219 | 46.7 | -2.6 |
| Cressida O’Hanlon | Labor | 8,445 | 35.2 | +6.4 |
| Kay Moncrieff | Greens | 3,279 | 13.7 | +4.7 |
| Tony Holloway | Family First | 1,067 | 4.4 | +4.4 |
| Informal | 437 | 1.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Marshall | Liberal | 12,135 | 50.5 | -6.9 |
| Cressida O’Hanlon | Labor | 11,875 | 49.5 | +6.9 |
2024 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anna Finizio | Liberal | 9,334 | 43.5 | -3.2 |
| Cressida O’Hanlon | Labor | 6,896 | 32.1 | -3.1 |
| Katie McCusker | Greens | 4,116 | 19.2 | +5.5 |
| Frankie Bray | Animal Justice | 682 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Nicole Hussey | Family Party | 440 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Informal | 425 | 1.9 |
2024 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Cressida O’Hanlon | Labor | 10,914 | 50.8 | +1.4 |
| Anna Finizio | Liberal | 10,554 | 49.2 | -1.4 |
Polling places have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.
At the 2022 state election, the Liberal Party won the seat overall, with 53% in the north-west and 52% of the other votes. Labor won 50.3% in the south and 53.1% in the north-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.5% in the north-west to 16.1% in the south.
Labor won the seat at the 2024 by-election, with 54.6% of the two-party-preferred vote in the south and 57.4% in the north-east. The Liberal Party won 51.6% in the north-west.
The Greens vote at the by-election ranged from 19.2% in the north-west to 23.9% in the south.
2022 booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 16.1 | 49.7 | 5,908 | 24.6 |
| North-East | 13.4 | 46.9 | 5,274 | 22.0 |
| North-West | 12.5 | 53.1 | 3,429 | 14.3 |
| Other votes | 12.7 | 52.1 | 9,399 | 39.1 |
2024 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 23.0 | 57.4 | 4,086 | 19.0 |
| North-West | 19.2 | 48.4 | 3,126 | 14.6 |
| South | 23.9 | 54.6 | 5,567 | 25.9 |
| Other votes | 14.4 | 46.2 | 8,689 | 40.5 |
Election results in Dunstan at the 2022 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Election results at the 2024 Dunstan by-election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Greens have done really well here, is there another seat where there vote is higher?
@SpaceFish – I believe the Greens have polled over 20% in Heysen at least once, they did in 2022 and I have a vague memory they also did in 2014. They’ve come second there a few times.
Back to Dunstan, the demographics here suggest it is likely a LIB v GRN contest and I feel a teal will do well in this area.
I thought Greens did better in Unley but double checked and it was 18.7% – slightly below their Dunstan by-election performance. With Unley still being Liberals held, Greens have more cause to challenge than a traditional Liberal seat with a Labor incumbent.
James is right about Heysen and that remains the Greens best prospect of a gain. It’s also an area where it will be hard for Greens to outcompete a teal (same is true for Unley tbh)
Greens cracked 20% in federal Adelaide (and 23% 3CP) in 2022 but have not been able to get it together for the state seat. In 2025 they explicitly focusing on Sturt and preselected a uni student, and they announced Adelaide with the same time and energy that they announced a bunch of other SA candidates. IIRC the 2022 state candidate was a late replacement too.
All that to say it’s not clear where or even if Greens will be able to get their first lower house seats (not counting serial party hopper Kris Hanna’s brief stint as a Green MP)
So the Liberals have chosen Anna Finizio again for this seat, could be interesting.
Saw her Facebook page, seems like she has changed a lot of her branding/campaign material to be a bit more ‘independent’, similar to Rachel Westaway in Prahran. (e.g. incorporation of non-Liberal brand colours, no Liberal logo)
@James I don’t think it will matter too much anyways, given that come next state election she’ll be one of many sacrificial lambs when the Liberals receive a shellshacking from Labor.
Tommo and James, not sure what faction Anna Finizio comes from but if she is a moderate like Chris Pyne and Simon Birmingham then she would be an ideal candidate for the federal seat of Sturt and could run a close race against new Labor MP Claire Clutterham. Although she like many other prospective challengers may wish to wait until the next decade when the national environment will be more favourable.
@Yoh An Two things that will work against Anna Finizio:
1) She’s clearly a parachute candidate given that a few years ago she contested Hindmarsh in the federal election and (unsurprisingly) lost to the now-Health Minister Mark Butler.
2) In her Dunstan campaign in 2024, a lot was being put out about how she’s from the Western suburbs which is totally different to the Eastern part of Adelaide in almost every aspect. Had it been a purely local candidate I suspect she would’ve possibly scraped through but her being parachuted from afar could’ve been the difference between winning and losing that by-election.
In consideration of all that, I’d imagine that she might want to give Sturt a go but the electorate is far from being the blue ribbon heartland it once was. There’s a lot more younger people living in this area which is hostile to the Liberals, Norwood/Kent Town have a lot of apartments going up which will increase the number of renters, and the northern part is more middle-class/working class which is another group the Liberals aren’t resonating with. Unlike some electorates won this year in the Federal election, Sturt is likely to trend progressive in the long term.
Fair point tommo, I did vaguely hear about Finizio hailing from the coastal suburbs during the Dunstan by election campaign so wouldn’t do that well being seen as an outsider candidate.
Some of the current Liberal Mps who are retiring or likely to lose such as John Gardner and Vincent tarzia could also be decent candidates for Sturt.
Fair point tommo, I vaguely remember hearing about Finizio hailing from the coastal suburbs during the Dunstan by election campaign so that would work against her being seen as an outsider candidate.
Some of the current liberal mps who are retiring or likely to lose such as John Gardner and Vincent tarzia could be suitable candidates for sturt.
Even ex premier and Dunstan mp Steven Marshall would also be alright as a candidate for sturt.
Inaugural Adelaide Crows captain Chris McDermott announced as Sarah Game- A Fair Go (or whatever the party is now called) candidate for Dunstan. Will it be as big a disaster as the Nigel Smart experiment was back when Dunstan was Norwood…
Chris McDermott is now running for Fair Game in the Legislative Council.