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This is only seat at the moment where I’m confident the Liberals will hold on, however the swing is going to be quite violent so margin could get very uncomfortably close here.
I think Swing will be more violent in Metro Adelaide and less elsewhere.
Agree Nimalan, at the federal election Barker was the only seat in SA that did not swing much (neighbouring Grey did swing a bit more and had a teal like independent in the mix). This suggests that the swing in Chaffey will be minimal and it could still end up being a fairly safe seat (with a margin >5%) after the election.
Even at the 2021 WA landslide election, ultra safe seats in the Wheatbelt area (like Roe and Central Wheatbelt) saw minimal swings to Labor and still had safe margins close to or exceeding 10% afterwards.
@ Yoh n
I agree.
Fun Fact, Labor has won Chaffey in the past. Between 1962-1970 and 1970-1973. During the Playmander Labor was forced to win some Country seats. These days i think Urban-Rural divide has increased and while i expect Labor to have its best ever result statewide the fact that this seat may not be won back shows how things have changed. In the Past Labor in NSW often won seats lik Murrumbidgee, Burrunjack if they existed today I doubt Labor will win it back even if there is a Minnslide in 2027.
If Labor had any shot in Chaffey, Mackillop etc then the Liberals would be looking at literally no seats, which isn’t going to happen.
Having said that, don’t discount the fact that there could still be a massive swing that should make any incumbent Liberal MP sweat.
I realise the statewide polling is very bullish on Labor – but the factors behind that (Liberal culture war rubbish and Pali’s popularity) I don’t believe play out to anywhere near the same extent in the rurals, think despite the likely emphatic result we’ll see a widening of the metro-regional divide in SA