LIB 17.2%
Incumbent MP
Tim Whetstone, since 2010.
Geography
Regional South Australia. Chaffey covers the ‘Riverlands’ along the Murray River to the east of Adelaide, on the Victorian and NSW boundary.
History
The electorate of Chaffey has existed since the 1938 election. The seat has gone through five periods: independent rule until the 1950s, marginal seat from 1956 to 1973, Liberal rule from 1973 to 1997, National Party rule from 1997 to 2010, and Liberal rule again since 2010.
Peter Arnold held the seat for the Liberal and Country League and then the Liberal Party from 1968 to 1970 and from 1973 until his retirement in 1993.
The Liberal Party’s Kent Andrew won Chaffey in 1993. At the 1997 election, Andrew lost to the National Party’s Karlene Maywald.
Maywald was elected with a strong margin in 2002, and in that hung parliament supported the Liberal Party in their unsuccessful bid to continue in government. Despite this decision, Maywald accepted an offer in 2004 to serve as a minister in the Rann Labor government.
While Maywald’s decision was controversial, she increased her margin at the 2006 election. She continued in the ministry after the 2006 election, despite the Rann government having a solid majority in the House of Assembly. Her support in the electorate dropped substantially after the 2006 election.
At the 2010 election, Maywald suffered a 15% swing away from her and to the Liberal candidate on the primary vote, and a 20% swing after preferences, which saw Liberal candidate Tim Whetstone elected after preferences with a 3.8% margin. Whetstone has been re-elected three times.
- Jeff Knipe (Legalise Cannabis)
- Jenny Troeth (One Nation)
- Tim Whetstone (Liberal)
Assessment
Chaffey is typically a very safe Liberal seat, but the state of Liberal polling suggests they may only win narrowly. It would be somewhat surprising if Labor won here.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Whetstone | Liberal | 12,050 | 54.6 | +7.6 |
| Joanne Sutton | Labor | 4,395 | 19.9 | +1.2 |
| Sab Feleppa | One Nation | 2,180 | 9.9 | +9.9 |
| Trevor Schloithe | Greens | 1,334 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| Damien Buijs | Nationals | 1,267 | 5.7 | +5.7 |
| Mathew Francis | Family First | 831 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| Informal | 1,034 | 4.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Whetstone | Liberal | 14,820 | 67.2 | -0.8 |
| Joanne Sutton | Labor | 7,237 | 32.8 | +0.8 |
Booths in Chaffey have been divided into three areas: Berri Barmera, Renmark and the south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 62.8% in Berri Barmera to 68.8% in the south.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.5% in Renmark to 11.1% in Berri Barmera.
| Voter group | ON prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 10.9 | 68.8 | 6,807 | 30.9 |
| Berri Barmera | 11.1 | 62.8 | 4,772 | 21.6 |
| Renmark | 9.5 | 66.5 | 4,095 | 18.6 |
| Other votes | 8.2 | 69.1 | 6,383 | 28.9 |
Election results in Chaffey at the 2022 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and One Nation.
This is only seat at the moment where I’m confident the Liberals will hold on, however the swing is going to be quite violent so margin could get very uncomfortably close here.
I think Swing will be more violent in Metro Adelaide and less elsewhere.
Agree Nimalan, at the federal election Barker was the only seat in SA that did not swing much (neighbouring Grey did swing a bit more and had a teal like independent in the mix). This suggests that the swing in Chaffey will be minimal and it could still end up being a fairly safe seat (with a margin >5%) after the election.
Even at the 2021 WA landslide election, ultra safe seats in the Wheatbelt area (like Roe and Central Wheatbelt) saw minimal swings to Labor and still had safe margins close to or exceeding 10% afterwards.
@ Yoh n
I agree.
Fun Fact, Labor has won Chaffey in the past. Between 1962-1970 and 1970-1973. During the Playmander Labor was forced to win some Country seats. These days i think Urban-Rural divide has increased and while i expect Labor to have its best ever result statewide the fact that this seat may not be won back shows how things have changed. In the Past Labor in NSW often won seats lik Murrumbidgee, Burrunjack if they existed today I doubt Labor will win it back even if there is a Minnslide in 2027.
If Labor had any shot in Chaffey, Mackillop etc then the Liberals would be looking at literally no seats, which isn’t going to happen.
Having said that, don’t discount the fact that there could still be a massive swing that should make any incumbent Liberal MP sweat.
I realise the statewide polling is very bullish on Labor – but the factors behind that (Liberal culture war rubbish and Pali’s popularity) I don’t believe play out to anywhere near the same extent in the rurals, think despite the likely emphatic result we’ll see a widening of the metro-regional divide in SA
Are the opinion polls showing 16% plus swing to the alp….if so another couple of % on top of that is possible.
But seats safe in rural areas will probably not shift. There needs to be something else in the mix. Eg a popular alp mayor.
The nsw seats were won in landslides of 1941 with exceptional alp members
Look at Wagga alp won and was selected till the death of the sitting mp then wal fife the sitting liberal mp was entrenched.