LIB 2.0%
Incumbent MP
Rachel Sanderson, since 2010.
Geography
Central Adelaide. The electorate covers the Adelaide city centre, as well as the suburbs of North Adelaide, Ovingham, Fitzroy, Thorngate, Medindie, Medindie Gardens, Gilberton, Walkerville and parts of Prospect, Nailsworth and Collinswood. Adelaide covers the entirety of the City of Adelaide, a majority of both Prospect and Walkerville council areas, and small parts of Charles Sturt local government area.
Redistribution
Minor changes were made to Adelaide’s northern border with Enfield. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 2.4% to 2%.
History
The electorate of Adelaide has existed since early in the 20th century. The seat was dominated by the ALP prior to 1989. Since 1989, the Liberal Party has held the seat for four out of six terms.
The seat of Adelaide was held by the ALP continuously from 1944 until 1989.
In 1989, the Liberal Party’s Michael Armitage won the seat. Armitage served as a minister from 1993, and retired in 2002.
In 2002, the ALP’s Jane Lomax-Smith, a former Lord Mayor of Adelaide, defeated the new Liberal candidate. Lomax-Smith was re-elected in 2006, and over her two terms served in a variety of ministerial roles.
The Liberal Party’s Rachel Sanderson defeated Lomax-Smith in 2010, and she was re-elected in 2014..
Candidates
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- Betty-Jean Price (Dignity)
- Robert Simms (Greens)
- Jo Chapley (Labor)
- Rachel Sanderson (Liberal)
Assessment
Adelaide is a very marginal seat. The Nick Xenophon Team received their second-lowest Senate vote in South Australia in this seat in 2016, but it was still over 20%.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rachel Sanderson | Liberal | 10,543 | 48.7 | +4.2 | 49.2 |
| David O`Loughlin | Labor | 7,812 | 36.1 | +2.7 | 35.3 |
| Robert Simms | Greens | 2,551 | 11.8 | +0.1 | 12.0 |
| Anna Tree | Dignity for Disability | 748 | 3.5 | +1.6 | 3.3 |
| Family First | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 433 | 2.0 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rachel Sanderson | Liberal | 11,341 | 52.4 | -1.8 | 52.0 |
| David O’Loughlin | Labor | 10,313 | 47.6 | +1.8 | 48.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Adelaide have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won 54% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north and almost 60% in the centre. Labor won 56.7% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 10.5 | 59.5 | 3,560 | 17.7 |
| North | 9.2 | 53.9 | 7,023 | 34.9 |
| Other votes | 12.2 | 54.2 | 5,614 | 27.9 |
| South | 18.2 | 43.3 | 3,915 | 19.5 |
Election results in Adelaide at the 2014 SA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
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Prediction time! I expect to be somewhat more off than usual, given the nature of this election, but here we go!
My prediction: Liberal hold, if only because Labor aren’t popular anymore and this key seat has an incumbent Liberal MP.