Schubert – SA 2014

LIB 17.8%

Incumbent MP
Ivan Venning, since 1997. Previously Member for Custance 1990-1997.

Geography
Regional South Australia. Schubert covers parts of the Barossa Valley, ranging from the Adelaide Hills in the west to the Murray River in the east. Schubert covers the towns of Nuriootpa, Angaston, Tanunda, Gumeracha, Birdwood, Mannum and Mount Torrens.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The electorate of Schubert has existed since 1997, when it replaced the seat of Custance.

The electorate of Custance had been first created for the 1985 election, when it was won by Liberal leader John Olsen, who had been in Parliament since 1979.

Olsen was re-elected in 1989, when he led the Liberal Party to another election defeat. In 1990, he resigned from Parliament to fill a Liberal Party vacancy in the Australian Senate.

Venning won the 1990 Custance by-election. Venning was re-elected in Custance in 1993, and has been elected in Schubert four times, in 1997, 2002, 2006 and 2010.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Ivan Venning is not running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Stephan Knoll. The Greens are running Jasemin Rose. Family First are running Tony Hurn.

Assessment
Schubert is a very safe Liberal seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ivan Venning LIB 11,936 57.3 +9.3
Lynda Hopgood ALP 4,772 22.9 -11.0
Jasemin Rose GRN 1,902 9.1 +2.1
James Troup FF 1,355 6.5 -1.2
William Smidmore IND 862 4.1 +4.1

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ivan Venning LIB 14,113 67.8 +11.0
Lynda Hopgood ALP 6,714 32.2 -11.0
Polling places in Schubert at the 2010 state election. East in blue, North Central in green, South Central in red, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Schubert at the 2010 state election. East in blue, North Central in green, South Central in red, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four parts. The centre of the seat has been split into north and south, and the rest of the seat has been split into north and central.

The Liberal Party won large majorities in all four areas, ranging from 63.1% in the west to 72.5% in north central.

The Greens came third in Schubert, with a vote ranging from 7.4% in North Central to 12.4% in South Central.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North Central 7.37 72.47 7,868 37.78
West 10.24 63.08 5,526 26.53
East 7.69 67.91 2,197 10.55
South Central 12.35 67.46 1,595 7.66
Other votes 10.71 64.73 3,641 17.48
Two-party-preferred votes in Schubert at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Schubert at the 2010 state election.

5 COMMENTS

  2. You seem to have failed to take into account the nascent Ukranian vote, which will heavily favour Slobodian in key booths. This one is still far too early to call.

  3. I really see this being a landslide Slobodian win. His connections to the local community and Ukrainian heritage make him a formidable opponent. My prediction: Labor Win

  4. Mr. Bragg, Democracy is awesome:

    I didn’t know there was a substantial population of Ukrainian descent here, and while that may help the Labor candidate somewhat, I still can’t see this Lib+15 seat being overturned.

  5. Liberals have a young and energetic candidate in this seat who has campaigned well. Ivan Venning’s personal vote is a loss though.

Comments are closed.