Waterford – Queensland 2024

I wonder if Fentiman will mount a coup against Palaszczuk at some point. They’re in danger of losing the election, but a leadership change might be the shot in the arm they need to retain government.

I suspect if QLD is heading for a landslide defeat for Labor this seat may actually be better for Labor than 2012 with increased immigration and refugees this area will likely firm up even stronger for Labor.

@Nimalan me and @Daniel T both predicted on our maps that Labor would hold onto a few seats they didn’t in 2012 including Woodridge but we agreed that they’ll lose Mackay, Mulgrave and Rockhampton which they held in 2012 albeit marginally.

Here’s my map from 26 April (this isn’t a target seat map but rather something I haven’t done before which is my version of the Cook Partisan Voting Index in the US but applied to Australia): https://jmp.sh/ZpNIRXHQ

I have Bulimba, Murrumba and Stafford as slightly Labor-leaning. I have Logan, Morayfield and Toohey as Labor-leaning. I have Gladstone, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Miller and Stretton as likely Labor (Greenslopes and Miller will be targeted by the Greens). I have Algester, Inala, Jordan, Nudgee, Sandgate and Waterford as solidly Labor. And finally, I have Bundamba and Woodridge as very solidly Labor.

My map has Labor concentrated to the working-class southwestern suburbs of Brisbane, with Labor only holding four coastal seats on my map (noting that Murrumba is only a slightly Labor-leaning seat according to my index).

Hey Nether Portal do you have a similar map/projection for the WA election?

@ Nether Portal
I agree the South Western Working Class suburbs of Brisbane are firming up for Labour. I wonder if the LNP can pick up Greenslopes/Miller. A moderate version of the LNP such as Crisfaulli backing action on climate action should appeal to voters there. I also think both LNP and Greens should also campaign in Bulimba which is a very affluent seat these days.

@CG not yet but I can make one if you like.

@Nimalan the southwest has high margins already though, which is why they’ll be the ones to stay. As you can see on my map, the southwest is the only consistently red region of Queensland.

@CG as for WA: I can probably attempt to make a map (so far I’ve made target seat maps for federal seats and state seats in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA, but this is the first Cook Index map I’ve ever made), but it’s a bit too early and the polling isn’t very consistent yet.

The Queensland election is upcoming in October and there’s been consistent polling with a consistent trend, that being the LNP leading Labor and being set to win in a landslide. However I can say that the WA election will see Labor’s majority reduced heavily and there’s even a chance the Coalition could narrowly form government.

Nether, Mettam isn’t winning, they are not overturning that 69-31 result TPP and the seat count in 1 election!

Cook is no Campbell Newman. It isn’t happening, it is simply wishful thinking on your behalf.

I support Labor yet I admit the LNP will win in October. So why won’t the Libs admit the same thing that they will lose WA?

@ Nether Portal
I would say it is not just the high margins for South west Brisbane but also the fact that it is ethnic working class rather than white working class so there will be a much lower ONP vote compared to Gladstone. It is a bit like why NSW Labor in 2011 won more seats than QLD Labor in 2012 despite a lower primary vote as their vote is more concentrated which maybe happening in South West Brisbane due to demographic change. Compare very different results for the voice referendum in Inala compared to Gladstone.

Also keen to know your thoughts if LNP can win Greenslopes, Miller or Builmba.

If Labor lose WA, it would be the biggest swing in history in 1 election (20+% swing TPP in 1 election) it would also mean seats like Swan Hills on like 30% margins fall. (They are not falling in 1 election)

NSW Labor couldn’t do it in 2015.

Labor will hold Waterford by around 8-10% after this election. The sitting member may resist the swing and I predict this will possibly be the safest seat after the election for Labor. (Or 2nd safest)

@Daniel T there is a slight possibility for the Coalition to win in WA given that their state government has been in since 2017 but even as a Liberal myself I do agree that they probably won’t win. However, I do think Libby Mettam could potentially win in 2029.

As for NSW, the NSW Coalition had four well-liked Premiers, one of which (Gladys) was the most popular Premier in NSW history according to polling and she never recorded a single net negative approval rating in an opinion poll. The NSW Coalition government of 2011-2023 did a lot of good things in office, even Labor agrees, particularly in terms of infrastructure and transport. NSW Labor on the other hand were in a similar situation to the Victorian Liberals at the moment (without external infiltration from ultraconservative religious groups of course), i.e party infighting and accusations of branch stacking. Tasmanian Labor are now (2014-2024) in a similar position to the one NSW Labor was in from 2011 to 2023.

@Nimalan I do agree that ethnic working-class areas are demographically favourable for Labor. However, I’m pretty sure a lot of ethnic areas had strong No votes (every seat in Western Sydney as well as most other seats with high ethnic populations (e.g Banks and Bennelong) voted No).

As for Greenslopes and Miller, I don’t think the LNP will win them, but I do think they have a chance in Bulimba. It all depends on where the Greens vote is at.

Campbell Newman did lose an enormous lead in just one term.

It’s interesting he’s talked about now as a catastrophic premier that got turfed out but the LNP were only a couple of seats away from being reelected and Newman did get less than the state average swing against him in Ashgrove.

I think his reputation is deserved, and it takes being that heavily disliked (not just “meh” or unproven) to lose from so far in front. A lot of incumbents can defend their seats

So I think Roger Cook will survive without much trouble and Vic Labor have a decent chance of winning a 4th term.

Miles has a lot less runway but maybe enough to survive with a purely defensive campaign without picking up new seats to offset the inevitable losses.

@ Nether Portal
I agree all of Western Sydney voted No but it was much better than a white working class area which is a big contrast to the SSM vote. There is a publication from Accent research on the voice which i have linked below.
The publication examined key demographics and their support for the Voice. Two crucial demographic factors stood out. Firstly, when looking at languages spoken at home, those who spoke only English were 61:39 in favour of ‘No,’ while those who spoke another language broke 53:47 in favour of the voice. Another factor was religion; those who practiced a religion other than Protestantism or Catholicism split 50:50. While these results are not overwhelming, they do suggest that individuals from CALD communities were more likely to support the voice, all else being equal.

https://www.accent-research.com/projects/the-voice

@Nimalan, I think the Voice Support in high percentage CALD communities is rather all over the place with some having descent Yes votes, most 50-50 while others being heavily No. Chinese areas for example has Box Hill having a high Yes Vote but then Hurstville had a high No Vote but then most are 50-50.

@Marh
I agree it is not overwhelming but there is a clear difference to white working class areas. With electorate level data we can make an ecological fallacy as these electorates have white/European voters as well. For that reason, surveys like what Accent Research produced is probably a better indication of as they focus on demographics rather than just georgraphy otherwise we make an ecological fallacy. However, Blaxland had a better result for the voice than Cook and Watson better than Hughes. The Survey did not suggest that CALD voters were strong YES voters but that they were more than those who spoke English only. Education was a slighltly better indicator i concede where 56% of those who have a degree voted yes but that is only 3% higher than NESB voters. Interestingly, Fraser had a better YES result than Goldstein which is a teal seat. Income was actually less of an indicator than cultural background with all income brackets returning a majority No vote.

@Nimalan, agree that income isn’t a good correlation as you see from that with Toorak having a No Voting Booth (The highest in Higgins) so I think there is a complicated correlation for this.
I heard may say the best correlation for the No Vote might actually the positve views to January 26 as every single poll since 2020s (even before the referendum) had a almost identifical percenatge of positive views to the day (high 50s to mid 60s) and the No vote so probably almost every single No Voter had a positive view on January 26 whereas almost every single Yes Voter had a neutral/Indifferent or Negative view on January 26.

@Nether Portal, what platform are using to fill in this map? Or are you filling this in by hand? I’d like to fill out for my own reference what I believe the state of play currently is.

Also while traversing through this division and a couple of the others by foot on the weekend. I had a wild thought of a surprising correlate to Logan in terms of population size and areas size.

Believe it or not, Canberra (excluding Queanbeyan) and Logan have very similar population ~400,000 and area ~800+sqkm. Obviously, looking at many demographics particularly income and cultural diversity, very different to Canberra. But some of the urban forms and landscapes, for example everything spread out and scattered across ridges, with nothing too particularly tall. As well as the river parting through the sprawl, it really made me consider how similar Logan is to Canberra. The architecture obviously very different of course. But if Logan had the same amount of care and attention that Canberra receives, I’m sure it would probably would have some pretty flash structures too.

@SEQ Observer as a Queenslander I actually believe you that Canberra is about the same size as Logan. The difference is though that Canberra is an elite, progressive city where over 40% of people have a university degree with while Logan is a part of Brisbane that is traditionally working-class and with a large bogan subculture and some gang violence as well as growing ethnic communities.

Canberra is described as a Sin City due to the fact that it has legal prostitution, legal pornography (porn was basically illegal in Australia except in the ACT, that was until internet porn became a thing), legal recreational marijuana, the Casino Canberra, etc and it also has the most socially progressive government in the country, etc.

Logan on the other hand is working-class with some of the highest crime rates in Brisbane (a controversial YouTuber and rapper from Sydney named Spanian filmed an episode of his “Into the Hood” YouTube series in Logan which saw about a thousand bogans, eshays, hoons and of course some genuine fans who turned up to meet him, police were even present at one point, this event received news coverage before the video was even uploaded, according to Spanian he was halfway through filming when the news covered the story). Logan and Inala are both working-class and they both have the highest crime rates in Brisbane (Logan refers to not just the suburb of Logan Central but the entire Logan City LGA while Inala refers to just the suburb of Inala itself, so technically Logan City has a higher crime rate but the single suburb with the highest crime rate is Inala).

Similar populations but very different places, even though Labor traditionally dominates in both areas.

@SEQ Observer I use an online site called SVG Edit. Inkscape is better but it’s a computer program, I made these maps on my iPad. I just copied a map from Wikipedia and recoloured it.

Link to the website: https://svgedit.netlify.app/editor/index.html

Note that you need to use an SVG file for it to work.

@Nether Portal, I have a better one that I used. https://yapms.com/

Click ”Import” at top left corner of screen and import. I use SHP files which easily can be downloaded from electoral commission websites (That is how I got the QLD one) Best part is the website allows you to add new candidates/parties. different shades and counts how many you have filled in rather than having to count up yourself

You could also probably make custom boundaries work if you submitted redistribution ideas to the AEC, as long as it is a SHP or GeoJSON file. it will work.

Only issue with the QLD one is that the coastal seats in regional QLD include some of the coral sea due to the islands, so you may get mixed up on a seat or 2.

@Daniel T I’ll try that with an SVG file since it has the insets and the Coral Sea is separated.

Marh, I would be careful about using the voice as a proxy for much. I tend to think a lot of the non english speakers were simply ignored once it was clear no would win. There definitely seemed to be a ‘Yes as an abstract concept’ -> hearing arguments from both sides -> ‘No in this specific context’ process.
I do think a more socially conservative/spend on services Liberal party (so more like the Nats?) would have something to say to electorates such as this, but getting from ‘Listening to the Libs’ -> ‘considering the Libs’ -> ‘Voting for the Libs’ is a multi election process, and still might not get you enough votes to win seats like this. And they are still not really at step 1.

Safe ALP retain with Fentiman most likely to become Opposition Leader. Fentiman will be a future Labor Premier – she seems almost destined for that.

The LNP preselecting Cr Jacob Heremaia is smart- very popular young Logan City Councillor who was elected unopposed in March. Unfortunately very few electors (only the small patch around Logan Reserve) that represent Division 8 also live within the Waterford Electorate. Div 4, 5 and 6 makes up the Waterford District – but I’m sure he’ll still have some name recognition.

@PRP I think you’re over-estimating the level of engagement and interest that the constituents of Waterford (and surrounds) have with the local council including their councillors.

On that same token though, I would even suggest that Waterford’s level of political engagement and interest probably has Fentiman’s local profile and name-recognition at a surprisingly low level. At least in contrast with the statewide profile she has developed as a prospective leader.

I’m going off a pretty dated report though on the different levels of political engagement throughout Australia. It pointed to division like Forde, Fadden and Rankin as amongst the lowest in the country. So take this assessment of Waterford’s political engagement with a grain of salt.

Name recognition can have a benefit, but consider that Heremaia hadn’t shown his party political colours until now. Is the name recognition worth more than Heremaia having Liberal National Party next to his name? In an electorate like this one, it might not be.

According to the Australian:

“ALP insiders say the Health Minister is facing a monster two-party preferred swing of 13 per cent in her outer Brisbane electorate of Waterford, which she holds on a Covid-boosted margin of 16.02 per cent.”

This seems to match the anecdotal reports from here a few weeks that this was a surprisingly active division as far as early-campaigning is concerned.

Let’s say she loses her seat are there any members of labor who if they were reflected decided to resign after losing the election that she could reenter parliament through

@SEQ Observer that wouldn’t surprise me especially given that this is an area with a very high crime rate.

Anyone else here about Heremaia being absent at the Candidate Forum?
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election/lnp-young-gun-jacob-heremaia-claims-stitch-up-by-fellow-logan-councillor-over-candidate-forum/news-story/bfcb8ae5e352aed27f6882aa8d4d0401?amp

This area has not been interesting since Hajnal Ban ran as a candidate

I think it will be a Labor retain on a margin of around 4%

16% swing to LNP is my prediction, Lineball. This will swing more than some seats on the northside on smaller margins.

Now we know why Heremaia has been camera shy and absent, mainly because of his father’s 10% sharehold in his RPAY project despite being prosecuted and disbarred

@Daniel T unlikely, Heremaia seems to have stuffed up his chances here https://www.9news.com.au/national/lnp-jacob-heremaia–running-for-waterford-seat-unable-to-explain-private-business-dealings/37fd5c69-1fe7-46bf-ae03-e6ae233a0a13
Labor Retain with a 10-11% Margin for my prediction

According to the Aussies Elect video you linked Caleb experts are saying Waterford will be close but Labor narrowly holds on. Heavily affected by crime and the cost of living crisis but it’s located in Logan’s heavily working-class Labor heartland. Jacob Heremaia appears to be of Māori or Cook Islander descent according to his surname (Māori equivalent of Jeremiah) and this area has a lot of Pacific Islanders.

I would describe southwestern Brisbane (including Logan) as Queensland’s Red Wall. This is a Red Wall seat. The term “Red Wall” originally applied to one specific part of the UK but for British politics I would describe three areas of England as Red Walls (the London Red Wall, the Midlands Red Wall and the Northern England Red Wall).

Prediction – a 2PP swing of 10% to 13% to LNP. This would be bigger than the statewide swing. I doubt it would be lineball. The current margin is a bit inflated from the Covid election.

this what the AEF projects the results for Waterford to be both on first preference and 2pp
https://www.aeforecasts.com/seat/2024qld/regular/waterford