Stafford – Queensland 2024

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  1. Its been reported Brisbane city councillor Fiona Hammond is going contest the LNP preselection of Stafford. I can’t see her being successful if she wins the nomination. On roughly a 11% margin I could see Labor holding on to Stafford in opposition.

  2. It wasn’t just reported, she posted herself on Facebook, so… straight from the horse’s mouth.

    Its a bold & risky move but if the swing is on, the swing is on.

  3. If Labor actually manage to lose stafford to the lnp then they’re looking at an anna bligh style wipeout anyway.

  4. Fun fact: according to Wikipedia, the seat of Stafford is in three federal seats, all held by different parties: Brisbane (Greens), Lilley (Labor) and Petrie (LNP).

    Can anyone else think of any suburbs that are in three federal or state seats all held by different parties?

  5. @ NP
    Good point, one that i can think of in Melbourne is Higgins. At a state level there is a Greens, Safest Liberal and two Labor seats (one safe and one mariginal). Another one is Hume which at a state level is held by Teal, Liberal and Labor (Camden)

  6. Agree Furtive, Petrie’s southern boundary ends at Robinson Rd west, which is just outside Stafford’s northern boundary.

    On another note, the somewhat awkward split of Chermside from its surrounding suburbs may be rectified at the next redistribution given that seats both to the north (Murrumba and those around Caboolture) and to the south (Clayfield and McConnell) are all over quota and need to shed electors.

  7. Flip side to Marchant page, basically confirmed as Fiona has now officially resigned from her council seat. Article link on Marchant page. Agreed with Furtive that if Stafford is going… it’s going to be a short [election] night.

  8. The Australian is reporting that Sullivan will be challenged for preselection by Susan Lynch, a former staffer for Sullivan’s predecessor, Anthony Lynham. Sullivan is also the only incumbent Labor MP who is facing a challenge, apparently. The loss of an incumbent might open the door for Hammond at the election.

  9. The Australian is reporting that Sullivan easily won the nomination against Lynch by 83-17, however, one of those voting for Lynch was ALP state president John Battams.

  10. Why did Jimmy Sullivan face a challenge? Is he disliked by the ALP establishment or is someone just hungry for a safe seat? 83-17 is a landslide win. The local branches do want him.

  11. @Volante not sure of the inner workings but I was working for a non-Labor politician in the Area in 2020. Susan Lynch was a Staffer for the-then Member for Stafford Anthony Lynham, and in the lead up to his retirement I distinctly remember seeing a brochure of his which had a photo of him and Susan on the back with a caption along the lines of “Susan Ley and my Team at the Electorate Office are here to help” – thought it was odd to have a photo and name of a Staffer on a non-campaign period brochure going out to the electorate. My inference was that he supported her bid for preselection in 2020 (just speculation – I think she did run for preselection but I actually don’t know the facts of what went on). She was also the ALP Candidate for the overlapping Marchant Ward in the 2020 Brisbane City Council Election several months earlier. Surprising to see that she is launching a preselection challenge against a first-time incumbent, especially one whose father was a former State Labor MP for the same area.

  12. It’s worth noting that Fiona Hammond held Marchant Ward from 2008 to 2023 – fifteen years during which the overlapping State and Federal Seats were entirely ALP (except the 2-year Newman Blip where LNP MP Chris Davis held the seat from 2012 – 2014, which was followed by a 17.1% swing back to Labor in the 2014 Stafford By-Election). Seems reasonable to assume she has a not-insignificant personal vote, and she seems to be a pretty active candidate. However, putting enough of dent in the ALP’s 11.9% hold on the Seat to win it is going to be an uphill battle for sure. Had she have run as a teal with her local profile (not that there seems to be much appetite on the part of the Teals to foray into Queensland) I wonder if she would have a better shot.

  13. I just can’t see Stafford flipping to the LNP, even with a well-known and relatively popular former councillor. As long as Labor’s vote remains in the mid to high 30s, they’ll win off the back of a strong Green primary vote. The LNP would need 47% here to be within a shot and I just can’t see that happening.

  14. Coincidentally Fiona Hammond left the city council after calling independent Cr Nicole Johnston “a bitch”

  15. @PRP I think they might get this one. This is a 50/50 seat for me.

    @Caleb that’s not a reason for someone to resign from an elected office. It’s really not that bad so I doubt voters will get mad at someone for calling someone a bitch, especially if a woman calls another woman a bitch (if it were a man it would be more offensive but still not terrible).

  16. This is has a 20% chance of flipping to the LNP for me. Yes, there is a former councillor running, although her ward only covered the northern parts of this electorate. The central parts around Stafford are very ALP friendly, and the southern parts are somewhat Green friendly. This will be like Miller, Ferny Grove or Greenslopes, where strong Green preferences will save the ALP here.

  17. Mate, I live near the Ferny Grove electorate. I can guarantee that Nelson will not win it. Mark Furner is a popular local member with an incumbency advantage, plus the Greens preferences from Wilston, Alderley, Gaythorne and Mitchelton will flow strongly to Labor.

  18. @AA based on the margin (which is inflated by the 6% swing last time) I would say it is winnable but I do agree that Furner is popular so it will be close. I definitely think the LNP will have a higher primary in all three seats you mentioned but Greens preferences would save Labor in Miller and maybe Greenslopes.

  19. I think Labor will lose votes to the LNP and Greens here. I’d give a 20% chance of this seat flipping to the LNP. The other factor is that the LNP candidate is not well known in the community, and as far as I can tell, has come straight out of the Young Libs. I think with a stronger candidate, the LNP could’ve flipped this.


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