Oodgeroo – Queensland 2024

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  1. Mark Robinson has announced he won’t be recontesting his seat of Oodgeroo at the next election. Setting for a preselection showdown between former Liberal senator Amanda Stoker and former federal Mp Andrew Laming.

    It was reported LNP sources suggested they were confident the rank and file would back Stoker. Robinson suggested he would like a woman to replace him an obvious sign he is supporting Stoker. Stoker it was reported has moved into the electorate recently.

  2. Apparently Andrew Laming has withdrawn from the pre-selection in the Queensland state seat of Oodgeroo according to the Australian. It looks like former senator Amanda Stoker is set to return to politics in the state arena. Stoker is regarded highly in the LNP ranks and it will be interesting if she has to serve her apprenticeship on the backbench first or be given a senior front bench position straight away. It could something in the middle such as a junior portfolio to begin with.

    The 4.5% margin is modest and there will be no incumbent. But my guess Labor will be more concerned about trying to retain neighboring seat of Redlands rather then looking to pick up Oodgeroo. Election is a year away but my guess is LNP retain.

  3. LNP moderate powerbrokers and the McGrath camp are doing everything they can to deny Stoker here. Hobbs will be fully backed by those factions and they’ve calculated that the local Laming camp will fall behind it and by their candidate being a Anglican priest that they can pull some other conservatives. It also helps the state parliamentary wing are still annoyed by Stoker’s comments about Frecklington. They tend to put ego before supporting a strong candidate.

    Hobbs is trying to do the whole I’m one of you and not factionally aligned thing while throwing out he is warrior against socialism and represents traditional values, aka throwing out bones to the conservative membership.

    On the other side, I’m informed that the outgoing state member and current Federal member are both backing Stoker and she is generally popular with the regular membership. The McGrath and moderate camp can’t stack the vote as easily as a senate preselection.

  4. Amanda Stoker wins LNP preselection for Oodgeroo.

    “Former Senator Amanda Stoker has secured preselection in the safe LNP seat of Oodgeroo, setting her up for a run at the 2024 Queensland election.

    Ms Stoker beat ordained Anglican priest Daniel Hobbs in the head-to-head preselection battle in the bayside seat.

    Former Bowman MP Andrew Laming had considered a run for Oodgeroo but pulled out a few weeks ago.

    Ms Stoker received 65 votes to Mr Hobbs’ 48”


  5. Speculation in a Courier Mail article that Stoker will be made a minister assuming she wins Oodgeroo, and could become leader if the LNP lose the election. I can see her Sky News shtick playing well amongst all the financially comfortable retirees around Cleveland, but not across the state as a whole.

  6. this is a bit of a Parachute move for LNP & could possibly lose the seat, especially if the independent candidate from the last election Claire Jenkinson decides to recontest this seat.

  7. Claire Richardson could stir things up if she recontests. The stars are probably more aligned this time. The seat is somewhat teal-ish and disaffected moderate liberals may want to look for a new home.

    In 2020, she ran against a sitting member and also contended with Labor’s popularity. This seat has a large elderly cohort and higher-than-median population who were drawn to Labor for the hard border and Covid measures.

  8. Easy retain for the LNP with Amanda Stoker likely in contention for an early call up to cabinet. I can’t see how Crisafulli denies her a spot in cabinet with her experience and clout in the party. Could be wrong.

  9. Amanda Stoker losses in 2028 if she turns to be the same Amanda Stroker we have seen in the past. She definitely will make premier Crisafullis life difficult. Labor won’t unseat her in 2028 but a climate-backed teal or independent will defeat her if she is toxic.

    Sky News and co will do everything they can to protect her and will even go out their way to attack Crisafulli if they have to. But in the end. they will lose.

  10. It doesn’t seem like Claire Richardson is going to run again, her vote4claire email doesn’t seem to be accepting messages.


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