LNP 10.1%
Incumbent MP
Ros Bates, since 2009.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Mudgeeraba covers the Gold Coast suburbs of Merrimac, Worongary, Mudgeeraba, Reedy Creek, the Robina Town Centre, and parts of Carrara. Mudgeeraba covers southern parts of the Gold Coast hinterland.
History
The seat of Mudgeeraba was first created at the 2001 election. The seat was held by the ALP from 2001 to 2009, and has been held by the Liberal National Party since 2009.
Dianne Reilly won the seat for the ALP in 2001. She was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but lost to the LNP’s Ros Bates in 2009.
Bates has held the seat since 2009, and served as a minister from 2012 to 2015.
- Ros Bates (Liberal National)
- Sophie Lynch (Labor)
- Samuel Buckley (Family First)
- Scott Turner (Greens)
- Carl Mocnik (One Nation)
Assessment
Mudgeeraba is a reasonably safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ros Bates | Liberal National | 15,640 | 49.0 | +2.9 |
| Maxim Otten-Kamp | Labor | 8,472 | 26.5 | +3.1 |
| Scott Turner | Greens | 2,857 | 8.9 | -0.4 |
| Andrew Liddell | One Nation | 2,464 | 7.7 | -10.1 |
| Lindon Cox | Animal Justice | 624 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Brandon Mcmahon | United Australia | 565 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Gary Pead | Independent | 528 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Mark Pytellek | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 299 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Bill Sherwood | Independent | 273 | 0.9 | -1.3 |
| Leith Erikson | Independent | 224 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 1,667 | 5.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ros Bates | Liberal National | 19,196 | 60.1 | +0.2 |
| Maxim Otten-Kamp | Labor | 12,750 | 39.9 | -0.2 |
Booths in Mudgeeraba have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.4% in the west to 62% in the south-east.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 62.0 | 4,575 | 14.3 |
| North-East | 57.4 | 2,789 | 8.7 |
| West | 56.4 | 1,108 | 3.5 |
| Pre-poll | 59.9 | 14,825 | 46.4 |
| Other votes | 60.7 | 8,649 | 27.1 |
Election results in Mudgeeraba at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party and Labor.
Easy LNP retain for Ros Bates – she never stops campaigning here. Having won it off Labor in 09 and going on to retain it easy ever since, she’s now turned it into a safe LNP seat.
I expect this might be her last term with a likely retirement in 2028.
“cross your legs” is now the latest in a long list of controversies for MP Ros Bates, unsure if this will swing against the LNP over the presumptive trend leading to the state election.
There was nothing wrong with what she said. Labour was just playing politics as usual for political gain.
I do not believe it was her intention to make it sound inflammatory, And as a woman herself, she would never say such a thing but intent to shame someone’s private life, I refuse to believe it.
I think it’s going to be Fentiman who’s gonna get the big swing against her and will likely cost her any possibility of her being leader.
I endorse the LNP to win the state election.
she’s now turned it into a safe LNP seat.
@PRP
Mudgeeraba was one of those seats that Labor won in the golden years of the Beattie years what was known as the ‘Beattie Liberals’. It was a matter of not if but when Mudgeeraba came back to the LNP. The fact Labor held this seat for three terms was a accomplishment in itself. The suggestion Bates turned this seat into a safe LNP is giving way too much credit to Bates. In what is a traditionally conservative seat.
Oh thank goodness that Daniel T has endorsed the LNP to win the state election, we were all waiting for his decision with bated breath, as were all the state MPs. And of course a woman would never shame another woman over their private life, that never happens, anywhere.
I don’t think anyone would think this seat was ever in doubt for the LNP. Doesn’t excuse Ros Bates from being completely unhinged and making those sort of crude remarks. It’s not even her first rodeo into it as well. She’s exactly what represents the worst of the LNP.
@PN Beattie seemed to have done well on the Gold Coast but not so much on the Sunshine Coast whereas Palaszczuk was the opposite.
@Wilson sarcasm?
Nether Portal, yes.
I know it was reported a couple of months ago in the Courier Mail that there were doubts in the LNP Ros Bates would be Health minister. If the LNP won the election and got into government. Despite the LNP constantly bagging Labor suggesting they can’t run the health system. They admit their own shadow health minister for seven years is not up to the job. David Crisafulli has ruled out rejigging his ministry, but that would be silly not allowing wriggle room after the election. Labor has suggested Christian Rowan will be health minister. It was mention in the report Bates will remain in cabinet, but given another portfolio.
Rowan in unlikely to be Health Minister, He could lose to the Greens in 2028 and making someone minister is risky in a seat like his with the changing demographics.
Bates will be Health minister, no questions asked.
19% swing to the LNP here.
@Daniel T They’re not going to match their 2012 performance here, let alone improve on it. I think some of the LNP swing predictions on this site are way out of hand at this point and need to come back to Earth. They are going to comfortably win the election in a landslide off the back of a very strong performance in the regions and the outer Brisbane suburbs, but as things stand in the polls, there is no reason to assume 20 point swings in seats like Mudgeeraba??? They probably won’t manage numbers like that anywhere, let alone here. It’s 8 entire points to the right of the absolute worst statewide swing shown by any poll so far.
80-20 TPP in seats Labor have no hope in is a reasonable prediction. I think the TPP could be worse than 2012 but maybe not the seat count. A 16% swing statewide is a possibility at this rate and I’m not even joking.
Rowan in unlikely to be Health Minister, He could lose to the Greens in 2028 and making someone minister is risky in a seat like his with the changing demographics.
Bates will be Health minister, no questions asked.
@Daniel T
Your point about Christian Rowan couldn’t be Health Minister because of his seats changing demographics is largely irrelevant. Ministers being in safe seats isn’t completely a prerequisite. Peter Dutton is federal opposition leader and his seat is marginal. And secondly Moggil has been one of the most reliable seats for the LNP in Brisbane. Rowan will have a large buffer after this state election.
When the LNP went into government in 2012 Lawrence Springborg was appointed Health Minister. Despite Mark McCardle being shadow Health minster since 2008. Your suggestion it’s out of the question Ros Bates could be replaced is nonsense.
Mudgeeraba is a crime-affected electorate so it could swing hard. It’s the most crime-affected part of the Gold Coast. A few schools in Mudgeeraba are among the most vandalised in Queensland according to statistics.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-17/queensland-lnp-ros-bates-abortion-family-first-preferences/104480940
This story about Ros Bates giving her second preference to Family First is a complete beat-up, and not really newsworthy.
1. Every party has to encourage their voters to allocate full preferences under the existing voting system, or their vote won’t count.
2. The LNP preferencing Family First and One Nation ahead of the ALP and Greens should not surprise anyone on any level.
3. The preferences of LNP voters only matter if the LNP does not make the final two candidates in the count, something which will not happen in Mudgeeraba.
What is rather more important is the position of the prospective health minister on the issues in her future portfolio.