LNP 3.6%
Incumbent MP
Christian Rowan, since 2015.
Geography
Western Brisbane. Moggill covers the suburbs of Kenmore, Chapel Hill, Brookfield, Pullenvale, Bellbowrie, Karana Downs and Mount Crosby.
History
The seat of Moggill has existed since 1986, and in that time the seat has always been held by the Liberal Party, and now the LNP.
The seat was first won in 1986 by Liberal MP Bill Lickiss. He had served as Member for Mount Coot-tha since 1963. He retired at the 1989 election.
David Watson won Moggill in 1989. Watson had held the federal seat of Forde for the Liberal Party from 1984 to 1987. He served as a minister in the coalition government from 1996 to 1998, and served as leader of the Liberal Party from 1998 to 2001.
Watson retired in 2004, and was succeeded by Bruce Flegg.
Flegg led the Liberal Party into the 2006 election, and served as Liberal leader until December 2007. He won re-election for the Liberal National Party in 2009, and again in 2012. Flegg served briefly as a minister from March until November 2012. He was denied preselection for Moggill in 2014, and did not run for re-electon.
Moggill was won in 2015 by LNP candidate Christian Rowan. Rowan was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
- Cheryl Wood (One Nation)
- Christian Rowan (Liberal National)
- Eric Richman (Labor)
- Andrew Kidd (Greens)
Assessment
Moggill is not as safe as it once was but should stay in LNP hands. It will be interesting to see if the Greens can overtake Labor, since this seat is contained within the federal Greens seat of Ryan, but it is the stronger LNP part of that seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Christian Rowan | Liberal National | 14,888 | 46.9 | -1.8 |
| Roberta Albrecht | Labor | 9,012 | 28.4 | +1.9 |
| Lawson Mccane | Greens | 6,536 | 20.6 | -0.3 |
| Bruce Mitchell | One Nation | 922 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Amy Rayward | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 395 | 1.2 | -2.7 |
| Informal | 546 | 1.7 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Christian Rowan | Liberal National | 17,016 | 53.6 | -1.4 |
| Roberta Albrecht | Labor | 14,737 | 46.4 | +1.4 |
Booths in Moggill have been divided into three areas: east, north-west and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south (51.3%) and north-west (59.2%) while the ALP won 52% in the most populous east. The LNP also won 54.7% on the pre-poll and other votes which made up 70% of the total turnout.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 27.3 | 48.0 | 4,648 | 14.6 |
| South | 20.8 | 51.3 | 3,169 | 10.0 |
| North-West | 22.6 | 59.2 | 1,419 | 4.5 |
| Other votes | 19.1 | 54.7 | 11,416 | 36.0 |
| Pre-poll | 18.9 | 54.7 | 11,101 | 35.0 |
Election results in Moggill at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
@James it’s all factional deals. Plus it would look like a ‘parachute’ if he was run in Redcliffe.
Poll Bludger shows 4 candidates on the ballot in the order of LNP, Labor, Greens & One Nation.
also, the Greens candidate is a state high school teacher and Labor has endorsed an emergency department doctor who served as a medical officer in Afghanistan.
Greens to finish second, but LNP retain with a swing to them. This is one of the weaker parts of Ryan for the Greens.
Results of the 2022 federal election in Moggill by booth:
Liberal TCP (vs Greens):
* Bellbowrie: 54.1% (–12.3%)
* Brookfield: 60.9% (–10.4%)
* Chapel Hill: 51.5% (–12.0%)
* Chapel Hill South: 47.6% (–10.9%)
* Indooroopilly West: 40.2% (–9.8%)
* Kenmore: 51.3% (–8.2%)
* Kenmore South: 47.6% (–8.0%)
* Moggill: 49.5% (–8.4%)
* Pullenvale: 54.7% (–11.9%)
* Upper Brookfield: 43.9% (–10.9%)
@PRP & @A A – Makes sense. Another example would be Jo Briskey, Labor’s candidate for Maribyrnong (VIC) in 2025, who ran for Bonner (QLD) in 2019. Plus her father is Darryl Briskey, a former Labor MP for state Cleveland in QLD.
@PRP @James I’ve done a bit of digging and have some more info as to why Labors moggill candidate isn’t running somewhere more winnable.
Firstly, he lives in Kholo. I’ve spoken to him, and he seems really dedicated to representing his local community. He’s not desparate for a seat in parliament, and I don’t think he would move accross town to get elected.
Labor often reserves winnable seats for factional rising stars (think Bisma Asif in Sandgate). So the Labor candidates in winnable seats often have really strong factional ties, and have been carefully selected based on their connections.
Plus, I think Eric Richman is from the Left faction, whereas Redcliffe is held by the right faction. Also, affirmative action rules would’ve probably stopped a male candidate replacing a retiring female incumbent.
@ Nether Portal
What is this seats on BCC results and Federal results?
@Nimalan on federal results the LNP TPP would be 50.8% vs the Greens. Note that this doesn’t include any prepoll centres as they are all situated outside of the electorate.
I think if only a small portion of those votes bleed over to federal results libs have a good chance of unseating the greens in Ryan and Brisbane.
As for BCC results it looks like every booth in Pullenvale is also in Moggill while every booth outside Pullenvale is not in Moggill because Moggill and Pullenvale are identical with the exception of a couple of minor boundary differences around Karana Downs and Mount Coo-tha. The LNP therefore won both the seat of Moggill and the Pullenvale Ward with 64.3% of the TCP vote against the Greens.
Results in Pullenvale Ward:
Primaries:
* Greg Adermann (LNP): 53.8% (+12.2%)
* Charles Druckmann (Greens): 24.1% (–0.2%)
* Roberta Albrecht (Labor): 11.4% (–2.8%)
* Kate Richards (Independent): 10.6% (–9.2%)
TCP:
* Greg Adermann (LNP): 64.3% (+4.4%)
* Charles Druckmann (Greens): 35.7% (–4.4%)
So there was actually a swing TO the LNP early this year. It will be interesting to see if this is repeated at the state election and the federal election.
@ NP
if we factor in some pre-poll and postal then i think the LNP may have got slightly better than that maybe like the 2020 State result.
OPV hurt Greens and the broad left will do better than in Pullenvale but anything better than 45% 2PP is an outstanding result for Greens (who I think will make the 2PP this time). Those Pullenvale results including a primary vote swing against Greens are pretty damning for any Greens prospects here. Still making the runoff in a high tide LNP election positions Greens well for next time
@BNJ if there is a swing against the Greens in Moggill like there was in Pullenvale it will be a major setback and I would potentially say that voters in this part of Brisbane are abandoning the Greens. Remember the Greens only got up because of Labor preferences in 2022.