LNP 4.4%
Incumbent MP
Ray Stevens, since 2009. Previously member for Robina 2006-2009.
Geography
Gold Coast. Mermaid Beach covers the Gold Coast suburbs of Merrimac, Mermaid Waters, Miami, Miami Keys, Florida Keys, Mermaid Beach and parts of Robina.
Mermaid Beach was created in 2009, replacing the former seat of Robina. Robina had existed from 2001 to 2009, and had always been won by the Liberal Party.
Bob Quinn was first elected as Liberal Party member for the new seat of Merrimac in 1992. Quinn served as Minister for Education in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998.
At the 2001 election, the Liberal Party only retained three seats: those of former leader Joan Sheldon, party leader David Watson, and deputy leader Quinn, whose seat of Merrimac was renamed Robina. Quinn took over as Liberal leader, and served until 2006.
Quinn retired at the 2006 election, and was succeeded by Ray Stevens, also of the Liberal Party.
In 2009, Robina was renamed to Mermaid Beach, and Stevens was re-elected for the newly merged Liberal National Party. Stevens has been re-elected four times.
- Clare Todd (Family First)
- Lucy Carra Schulz (Greens)
- Roger Marquass (One Nation)
- Ray Stevens (Liberal National)
- Joseph Shiels (Labor)
Assessment
Mermaid Beach is a marginal LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ray Stevens | Liberal National | 12,604 | 44.1 | -1.5 |
| Carl Ungerer | Labor | 8,721 | 30.5 | +5.7 |
| Zai Harris | Greens | 3,090 | 10.8 | +1.1 |
| Stephen James | One Nation | 1,434 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Deb Lynch | Legalise Cannabis | 1,142 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Tory Jones | Independent | 506 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Hristo Avdjiev | United Australia | 375 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Rhett Holt | Independent | 302 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Nicholas McArthur-Williams | Independent | 254 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Suphakan Somsriruen | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 174 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 1,870 | 6.1 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ray Stevens | Liberal National | 15,558 | 54.4 | -1.9 |
| Carl Ungerer | Labor | 13,044 | 45.6 | +1.9 |
Booths in Mermaid Beach have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (51.9%) and the north (56%), while Labor managed 50.2% in the south. The LNP won a sizeable 54.5% majority on the pre-poll vote and 57% on the other votes.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 14.8 | 51.9 | 3,466 | 12.1 |
| South | 12.4 | 49.8 | 3,299 | 11.5 |
| North | 11.3 | 56.0 | 1,422 | 5.0 |
| Pre-poll | 10.3 | 54.5 | 13,100 | 45.8 |
| Other votes | 8.9 | 57.0 | 7,315 | 25.6 |
Election results in Mermaid Beach at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
The LNP have plenty of deadwood who have been around 10 years plus and underperformed. Some like Ray here are pre Newman government, and they seem happy to keep getting a paycheck while being a mediocre part of a team that spends most of their time on the opposition team.
These seats they always win should really be handed over to future front bench talent to renew the team, but Ray is going again here.
The lack of renewal means they keep needing recycle the same faces as shadow ministers who have been part of what they have presented at multiple elections.
If the tide is going out for Labor, Ray gets to spend a few years on the government backbench, for what purpose?
@lnp unfortunately that’s up to the voters who sits in parliament and runs for the seat
Massive wasted opportunity by the LNP here to remove deadwood like Ray Stevens. He’s allowed the margin to be whittled down to just 4% on his watch.
Should’ve retired long ago, but to run again when they’re headed back into government in selfishness.
Labor has no shot at winning Mermaid Beach but the local MP is opening the door for a strong Teal-like Independent. Does Stevens think he has a shot at being Speaker?
Stevens really should have lost preselection or been convinced into retirement. He’s already the oldest member of parliament as it is (he will be 75 in 2028) and far from an outstanding politician. Bit of a waste to keep him around in an election where the LNP is sure to win decisively and has been for months.
Ray Stevens has been in power (state and local) longer than the current incarnation of the Gold Coast (LGA). Longer than 30 years. Longer than the current incarnation Katter has held the seat of Kennedy.
Crazy to think.
Agree @PRP, Mermaid Beach might be ripe for a non-classic contest. Maybe involving a community-independent which would chip away from Stevens and Labor. In the absence of a viable independent and if Labor primary is significantly diminished like polls suggest, Greens might end up leapfrogging Labor in a division like this. Burleigh and Currumbin are also divisions that probably would behave the same.
Mermaid Beach is classed as a Inner-metropolitan seat & Labor have been doing better in inner & middle suburbs by 8 points more in opinion polls two party preferred compared to the combined results of every inner metropolitan seat back in 2020.
@Caleb it’s not always the same in smaller large cities like the Gold Coast. The inner-city of the Gold Coast ie suburbs like Main Beach, Southport and Surfers Paradise which are blue-ribbon suburbs.
@ Nether Portal
I agree with you. Mermaid Beach also has some of the most expensive real estate have a look at some of the sold houses on Hedges Avenue, Mermaid Beach 🙂
@Nimalan yeah I’m aware that Mermaid Beach is expensive. It would be the equivalent of a more tealy suburb though (same as Miami, etc). Southport and Surfers are somewhat tealy too whereas Main Beach is more like Vaucluse or Toorak.
The only exception to the rule of the beach being more conservative is the seat of Mudgeeraba.
@ Nether Portal
The beach areas in the Gold Coast are much more Conservative than areas further inland, which is why i often say the Gold Coast along the Ocean front is probably not an area Labor should focus and i think Burleigh and Currumbin will also become more expensive over time. Labor has a better chance to win Coomera and Theodore next time.
@Nimalan I agree, under the current boundaries Broadwater is a very safe LNP seat.
Poll Bludger Shows 5 Candidates on the ballot in the order of LNP, Labor, Greens, One Nation & Family First.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=MermaidBeach
@Caleb I should note that the ballot places have not been drawn yet, that was just the order of candidates by vote share at the last election. Same goes with every seat.
@np I reckon they should adopt the Tasmanian ballot system where every paper is randomised. That way there is no advantage of drawing top spot
@John that would be interesting, but it would be harder to tell how a how to vote card is telling you to vote. However it would reduce donkey voting.
@NP probably not a bad idea to bring it in then if it reduces donkey voting given QLD is set to adopt OPV again when the LNP gets elected.
Donkey voting would still exist but it wouldn’t benefit any one party