Logan – Queensland 2024

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16 COMMENTS

  1. As of the most recent enrolment figures release, this division is at 18.62% deviation from
    average district enrolment and growing. Or 46,601 total electors.

    I’m sure this can be attributed to the growth of Yarrabilba in particular. With new large land releases anticipated to take place in neighbouring Kairabah over the next 5 years.

    Coomera is at 53,093 electors.

  2. The overlapping Federal division of Wright, could potentially be put into marginal territory within the next couple of election cycles given the increasing weight that Yarrabilba (a currently Labor leaning region) will have on the division results – as well as likely boundary adjustments due to the population increase.

  3. @SEQ after the next federal election there’ll be another federal redistribution in Queensland (and there will also be another state redistribution after the next state election), and chances are Logan will be moved out of Wright and into another seat, maybe Forde or Rankin but possibly a new seat since it’s been a while since a new seat has been created or an old seat has been abolished in Queensland, in fact it’s been a while since a seat’s been renamed in Queensland too.

    There should be a Sunshine Coast seat called Irwin, Blair’s win or lose for the majors (if it loses Ipswich to Oxley or a new seat then it’s a safe LNP seat but if it loses the Somerset Valley region (e.g Esk) to Maranoa then it’s a fairly safe or safe Labor seat), same as Ryan (if the inner-city suburbs west of Moggill are moved into another seat then Ryan would be notionally LNP but if it loses the outer suburbs west of (and including) Moggill then it’s still a Greens seat), etc.

  4. There’s explosive population growth all across this district. Yarrabilba is the largest, but there’s also new housing estates in Greenbank, Jimboomba, Logan Reserve, Logan Village, Park Ridge, and South Maclean.

  5. Brettlyn “Beaver” Neal has been announced as the ONP candidate for this seat. Former candidate for Cook I believe.

  6. Labor retain – this seat is interesting given the massive population boom, which I suspect helps Labor.

    At the next redistribution, I suspect a new seat around Jimboomba will be carved out and Logan will shrink considerably.

    The LNP’s vote is usually in the 20s in this seat and I can’t see them winning it this time.

  7. Yes Logan has rapidly climbed in its enrolment over the last 12 months to exceed the statewide average division enrolment by 20%. Much of this would be along the two Beaudesert corridors to Beenleigh and Browns Plains, including the periphery of Jimboomba as you identified.

    At the Federal election, Yarrabilba had an interesting booth. Very fragmented with both Greens and ONP close to 20%. UAP exceeding 10%, LNP managing just under a quarter of the vote, and Labor close to 30% of the vote. One of ALPs best booths in Wright, ultimately delivering ALP the edge on TPP.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a swing of up to 10% in this division, still unlikely to overcome this large margin but possible. I would also posit that this division is vulnerable of being a non-classic contest on TPP if ALP and LNP are unable to command a half of the vote, like some of the booths in Wright in 2022. ONP the most likely to appear in the TPP if it is non-classic.

  8. Starting to become convinced that this seat is vulnerable at the next election until I start seeing polling that would suggest otherwise. Some commenters have suggested that this would be an “upset”. Perhaps it would be given the swing required to pick this one up. This division might just have one of the greatest swings of the night.

    Although as I was highlighting in the main page, this would be barely an upset given the demographics and profile of this division. This division is a lot closer in profile to a seat like Scenic Rim than Woodridge.

  9. @SEQ Observer I think the high crime rate in Logan will cause a big swing. Like how Inala had a huge swing in the by-election earlier this year even though Labor still won it and will win it again in 2024. Inala is the Mount Druitt/St Albans of Queensland (Mount Druitt and St Albans are the crime capitals of Sydney and Melbourne respectively and have lots of carjackings, gangs, drive-by shootings, home invasions, robberies, stabbings, etc and are poorer suburbs with large ethnic populations who are working-class and heavily vote Labor).

  10. I think you’re confusing this seat with the ethnically diverse, high crime rate areas of Woodridge and Logan Central.

    This seat is mostly semi rural and new developments and doesn’t really have a crime issue compared to W’ridge. Cost of living would be the main issue here, with a large number of “white battlers” and young families. The high One Nation vote could certainly benefit the LNP with preferences and deliver an upset win here.

  11. Logan is a very expansive seat which I feel will next election shed a lot of voters. Logically it will gain Flagstone from Jordan, and lose Jimboomba and Riverbend to Scenic Rim. It’s a weird electorate since it looks like it has barely any voters in it apart from Boronia Heights. However I’ve found it has a lot of new estates and subdivisions. Considering Coomera is god over-quota, is there a shot a new state seat will be created in the Hinterland/Logan area next election?

  12. @Nether Portal, please do yourself a favour and go on a Sunday drive up Mount Tambourine and back down via Tambourine and Jimboomba and then come back through Waterford-Tamborine Road or Beaudesert-Beenleigh Road so you can get a feel of this division that’s grounded in reality.

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