Logan – Queensland 2024

As of the most recent enrolment figures release, this division is at 18.62% deviation from
average district enrolment and growing. Or 46,601 total electors.

I’m sure this can be attributed to the growth of Yarrabilba in particular. With new large land releases anticipated to take place in neighbouring Kairabah over the next 5 years.

Coomera is at 53,093 electors.

The overlapping Federal division of Wright, could potentially be put into marginal territory within the next couple of election cycles given the increasing weight that Yarrabilba (a currently Labor leaning region) will have on the division results – as well as likely boundary adjustments due to the population increase.

@SEQ after the next federal election there’ll be another federal redistribution in Queensland (and there will also be another state redistribution after the next state election), and chances are Logan will be moved out of Wright and into another seat, maybe Forde or Rankin but possibly a new seat since it’s been a while since a new seat has been created or an old seat has been abolished in Queensland, in fact it’s been a while since a seat’s been renamed in Queensland too.

There should be a Sunshine Coast seat called Irwin, Blair’s win or lose for the majors (if it loses Ipswich to Oxley or a new seat then it’s a safe LNP seat but if it loses the Somerset Valley region (e.g Esk) to Maranoa then it’s a fairly safe or safe Labor seat), same as Ryan (if the inner-city suburbs west of Moggill are moved into another seat then Ryan would be notionally LNP but if it loses the outer suburbs west of (and including) Moggill then it’s still a Greens seat), etc.

@nether portal il second your call for a seat named logan

Irwin sry

There’s explosive population growth all across this district. Yarrabilba is the largest, but there’s also new housing estates in Greenbank, Jimboomba, Logan Reserve, Logan Village, Park Ridge, and South Maclean.

Brettlyn “Beaver” Neal has been announced as the ONP candidate for this seat. Former candidate for Cook I believe.

Labor retain – this seat is interesting given the massive population boom, which I suspect helps Labor.

At the next redistribution, I suspect a new seat around Jimboomba will be carved out and Logan will shrink considerably.

The LNP’s vote is usually in the 20s in this seat and I can’t see them winning it this time.

Yes Logan has rapidly climbed in its enrolment over the last 12 months to exceed the statewide average division enrolment by 20%. Much of this would be along the two Beaudesert corridors to Beenleigh and Browns Plains, including the periphery of Jimboomba as you identified.

At the Federal election, Yarrabilba had an interesting booth. Very fragmented with both Greens and ONP close to 20%. UAP exceeding 10%, LNP managing just under a quarter of the vote, and Labor close to 30% of the vote. One of ALPs best booths in Wright, ultimately delivering ALP the edge on TPP.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a swing of up to 10% in this division, still unlikely to overcome this large margin but possible. I would also posit that this division is vulnerable of being a non-classic contest on TPP if ALP and LNP are unable to command a half of the vote, like some of the booths in Wright in 2022. ONP the most likely to appear in the TPP if it is non-classic.

Starting to become convinced that this seat is vulnerable at the next election until I start seeing polling that would suggest otherwise. Some commenters have suggested that this would be an “upset”. Perhaps it would be given the swing required to pick this one up. This division might just have one of the greatest swings of the night.

Although as I was highlighting in the main page, this would be barely an upset given the demographics and profile of this division. This division is a lot closer in profile to a seat like Scenic Rim than Woodridge.

@SEQ Observer I think the high crime rate in Logan will cause a big swing. Like how Inala had a huge swing in the by-election earlier this year even though Labor still won it and will win it again in 2024. Inala is the Mount Druitt/St Albans of Queensland (Mount Druitt and St Albans are the crime capitals of Sydney and Melbourne respectively and have lots of carjackings, gangs, drive-by shootings, home invasions, robberies, stabbings, etc and are poorer suburbs with large ethnic populations who are working-class and heavily vote Labor).

I think you’re confusing this seat with the ethnically diverse, high crime rate areas of Woodridge and Logan Central.

This seat is mostly semi rural and new developments and doesn’t really have a crime issue compared to W’ridge. Cost of living would be the main issue here, with a large number of “white battlers” and young families. The high One Nation vote could certainly benefit the LNP with preferences and deliver an upset win here.

As @SEQ Observer said, this seat is demographically closer to Scenic Rim than it is to Woodridge.

Logan is a very expansive seat which I feel will next election shed a lot of voters. Logically it will gain Flagstone from Jordan, and lose Jimboomba and Riverbend to Scenic Rim. It’s a weird electorate since it looks like it has barely any voters in it apart from Boronia Heights. However I’ve found it has a lot of new estates and subdivisions. Considering Coomera is god over-quota, is there a shot a new state seat will be created in the Hinterland/Logan area next election?

@NP – Sounds like a great proposal for Irwin. Is it possible to know where Irwin may be located?

@Nether Portal, please do yourself a favour and go on a Sunday drive up Mount Tambourine and back down via Tambourine and Jimboomba and then come back through Waterford-Tamborine Road or Beaudesert-Beenleigh Road so you can get a feel of this division that’s grounded in reality.

Very unusual that One Nation hasn’t got a candidate preselected here yet. Important to note that Brettlyn Neal was initially announced for Logan but has since been transported up to contest the division of Mirani since Andrew quit the party.

@james based on current enrolment north of Dickson most likely

@SEQ Observer they ran a ghost candidate last time, which was a stupid move on their behalf.

I’m actually thinking that this seat could be an LNP gain at the next election.

As a Labor supporter, Linus Power seems like a lacklustre MP – this electorate is facing massive changes with all the subdivisions, but he doesn’t appear to be working particularly hard to secure the infrastructure and services it needs. It’s also an electorate with a lot of socio-economic disadvantage, and again, Power doesn’t seem to be working very hard to fight for his constituents. I don’t actually live in the electorate, so people living there could have different thoughts, but I do know people who currently (and have previously) lived here. Then again, Power doesn’t live in the electorate either.

I think Power’s neglect of the electorate could result in an upset LNP gain, if their candidate works hard enough. Or even if he doesn’t, it could swing LNP purely because voters feel left behind.

@AA same I think the LNP’s policies on crime will help them too since this is one of the poorer and more dangerous parts of Brisbane. This is where a lot of gangs are based.

@NP

“since this is one of the poorer and more dangerous parts of Brisbane. This is where a lot of gangs are based.”

You are confusing the electorate of Logan, which includes new housing estates like Yarrabilba, suburbs such as Boronia Heights, and rural areas like Chambers Flat. This is a practically ‘no-crime’ area. The electorate you may be referring to is actually Woodridge, a much safer Labor seat that has low-income, crime-ridden areas like Woodridge and Logan Central.

I predict an LNP gain in Logan, Woodridge a Labor retain.

You keep forgetting the difference between the ethnically diverse, high crime areas of Logan (Woodridge, Kingston and Logan Central), which are in the area of Woodridge, and the semi-rural “battlers” on the outskirts of Logan, who are in this electorate. Demographically, this electorate is closer to Scenic Rim than Woodridge.

As I said before in response to you, “This seat is mostly semi rural and new developments and doesn’t really have a crime issue compared to W’ridge. Cost of living would be the main issue here, with a large number of “white battlers” and young families. The high One Nation vote could certainly benefit the LNP with preferences and deliver an upset win here.”

@James is spot on in his description

I know I’ve commented four times, but I’ve tried to explain the difference (as have other people on this forum) to you multiple times before. People in Brisbane and the Gold Coast immediately stereotype “Logan” as poor, crime-ridden suburbia. But demographically, it has a lot of different areas. There is a big difference between suburban Woodridge, Kingston, Loganlea, Waterford West and Marsden (where the crime mostly occurs – in Woodridge and Waterford electorates) and semi-rural Jimboomba, Chambers Flat, Stockleigh and Logan Village (in Logan electorate). Please go for a drive through these areas to actually get a feel for what they’re like.

I know Ben is probably sick of this equivalency game we do on here. But the Melbourne equivalent of construing the division of Logan with Logan Central would be painting the Dandenong Ranges with the same brush as Dandenong.

The contrast between the divisions of Dandenong and Monbulk actually serves as a reasonable allegory between Woodridge and Logan too.

@SEQ Observer To be honest, I was one of those people until I looked up the electorates to find out that Logan is basically the southern edge of Logan City plus a bit of the Scenic Rim. Federally it’s kind of Rankin + Forde + Wright whereas Logan Central is purely in Rankin and Woodridge on a state level.

More of a reason to rename Logan or perhaps rename Woodridge to Logan to better reflect the area whilst giving the current Logan a new name, maybe Goss?

@James @AA yeah I was confused with the area itself.

I think places like Yarrabilba will vote Liberal this time. It’s a marginal Labor suburb federally.

@Tommo9 – I 100% agree. Heck, it could even be a federal name considering the population growth in Logan/Gold Coast, though I think the state name would be more applicable and better represent state parliament.

*Goss

Considering dissolution is less than a month away Ben, I think a bunch of Labor seats need editing ”XXXX Is a Safe Labor seat but under the current environment/circumstances, it could be vulnerable etc”

Like what you did on WA 2021, NSW 2011, QLD 2012, guides, etc. Because this election is looking allot like those ones.

@Daniel T I agree especially since the polls are indicating similar results to those elections.

LNP could pull of a surprise upset here. This is a wild card. I sense that the Logan LGA will swing hard to the LNP. The population boom and mortgage boom means cost of living is perhaps the main hot button issue. If One Nation doesn’t run, then a large chunk of their voters will vote LNP. LNP won’t just get votes from Labor voters but also One Nation voters.

Waterford and Woodridge will likely remain Labor given their higher margins and high profile members.

Agree Votante

This seat has mortgage belt and semi-rural territory so not like Waterford and Woodridge which are ethnic working class areas.

Daniel / NP: the polls actually aren’t showing that – it’s mid to high 50’s for LNP. That’s an obvious win for them, but not a crushing like 2012 (62%). Don’t even mention the WA 2021 WTF-slide – that’s unrepeatable in any of our lifetimes (although I did enjoy being a West Aussie that day!).

The one thing that might make Logan flip is the redistribution in 2015, which knocked 5% off Labor’s vote. It’s currently 10% better for Labor than the state as a whole, so a 60-40 statewide result is where seats like this start getting interesting.

@Bird of Paradox the swing won’t be uniform. I’m expecting this to swing more because of issues like crime and the cost-of-living crisis.

This district lies wholly within Logan City and covers a large part of its area, it has the Logan River running through it, and it contains two suburbs that have “Logan” in their name. “Logan” is a perfectly fitting name for it. Obviously, there are going to be multiple districts covering the suburban portion of Logan City. Two of them bear geographical names. Anyone who cares to even glance momentarily at a map will realise that this is not Waterford or Woodridge. It is almost degrading to suggest that residents here should be deprived of a name because they don’t conform to a stereotype of being poor and crime-ridden.

@Nicholas issues like crime and cost of living will still hit hard here, and probably will in Waterford and Woodridge too. They also will hit hard in Inala. It won’t be enough for the LNP to win Inala, Waterford or Woodridge but it’ll still be enough for a huge swing against Labor. Not only is Annastacia’s personal vote long gone in Inala but the area is known for crime.

The ethnic working-class vote should keep Labor up in the southwest of Brisbane, but I think the Chinese vote will go to the LNP, like it traditionally does.

Logan seems to be similar to Cockburn in Perth: a local council named after a geographical feature that used to have just one electorate covering it, but now has several due to population growth in the outer suburbs. I don’t really follow Qld redistributions, but in WA I reckon the current seat of Cockburn could easily be renamed Beeliar – named after a lake / major road / suburb in the area, and it’s an indigenous name for those who care about ticking that box. Could something similar work for Logan?

I don’t think it’s “degrading” to residents to “deprive” them of the name. If people are that attached to the memory of Mr Logan, there’s the local council and the river, and probably plenty of other things. It’s not like they’re pulling down statues.

Goss works better as a federal name in my view, since they tend to be named after people. There’ll eventually be a Rudd, but it’s namesake won’t be shuffling off this mortal coil for a while, so Goss might as well join Dawson, Dickson, Griffith, Herbert, Lilley and Ryan as Qld premiers with a federal division named after them.

There are dozens of places whose names begin with “Logan”. This electorate just happens to sit in the centre of the LGA.

People do need to know that Logan LGA is demographically diverse and isn’t just Logan Central or your typical CBD on the edge of a metropolitan area, like Dandenong or Campbelltown. It contains greenfield housing estates (e.g. Yarrabilba) and semi-rural locales (e.g. South/North Maclean).

@Votante, also contains historic towns like Jimbooma that have been absorbed by Greater Brisbane’s sprawl.

@Nether Portal, I’m not convinced the Chinese vote “traditionally” went to the LNP.

@SEQ Observer see Bennelong.

The Coalition does well among Chinese voters hence why they win suburbs like Epping, Hurstville and Ryde. However, Sunnybank is more working-class so the LNP vote is less than the Liberal vote in Sydney suburbs with large Chinese communities, but still the LNP usually win or get close to winning Sunnybank (at least federally).

I kind of get what @Nether Portal is saying in relation to crime for this division. Yes it’s an ex-urban division, with not too much crime. Dissimilar from the parts of Logan which are popularly regarded as a high-crime area.

Despite this, this is a division which would still be sensitive to the perception of crime being high (in their immediate vicinity or not; and unfounded or not). And this sensitivity can still be an animating force for people when they go to polls.

The explosion in widely-available, hyperreal CCTV footage of criminal acts that make for fantastic recurring evening news bits has definitely been a contributing factor to the sensitivities surrounding crime. These evening news bits increases the reach of crime-angst state-wide – well outside of their respective local communities. LNP have been able to ride this wave masterfully, with Crisafulli frequently clamouring for soundbites on the ends these evening news bits throughout his entire stint of Opposition Leader.

Another point is that the constituents of Logan (the division) likely spend a lot of time within the parts of Logan that are known for their crime. It almost makes more sense for the people outside of town and on the fringes of town to be more sensitive to the perception of crime. It might be a factor for why they have chosen to live out of the way.