LNP 11.5%
Incumbent MP
Jim McDonald, since 2017.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Lockyer covers rural areas between Toowoomba and Ipswich. The seat covers the Lockyer Valley local government area and southern parts of the Somerset council area. The seat covers the towns of Laidley, Gatton, Lowood and Helidon.
History
The seat of Lockyer first existed from 1888 to 1932, and has existed continuously since 1950. The modern seat has never been held by the Labor Party.
The seat was held from 1950 to 1980 by Liberal Party members, and was won in 1980 by the National Party’s Tony Fitzgerald.
Fitzgerald held the seat throughout the 1980s and 1990s, but in 1998 lost to One Nation’s Peter Prenzler.
Prenzler left One Nation in 1999 to found the City Country Alliance. In 2001, Prenzler lost to the new One Nation candidate, Bill Flynn.
Flynn became leader of One Nation in the Queensland Parliament following the 2001 election, and held the seat for one term before losing in 2004.
The seat held from 2004 until 2017 by Ian Rickuss, who held the seat first for the National Party and then for the LNP following the 2008 merger. Rickuss easily saw off a challenge from Katter’s Australian Party in 2012, and then narrowly held on against Pauline Hanson in 2015. Hanson came within 114 votes of winning Lockyer.
Rickuss retired in 2017, the LNP’s Jim McDonald won the seat against a lower-profile One Nation candidate. McDonald was re-elected in 2020.
- Corey West (One Nation)
- Jim McDonald (Liberal National)
- Julie Rose (Family First)
- Euan Tiernan (Labor)
- Paul Toner (Greens)
Assessment
Lockyer is a safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jim McDonald | Liberal National | 13,662 | 45.2 | +9.3 |
| Janet Butler | Labor | 7,477 | 24.7 | +1.8 |
| Corey West | One Nation | 4,010 | 13.3 | -21.1 |
| Jim Savage | Independent | 3,057 | 10.1 | +10.1 |
| Rebecca Haley | Greens | 1,489 | 4.9 | +0.4 |
| Andrew Rockliff | United Australia | 563 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 1,091 | 3.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jim McDonald | Liberal National | 18,616 | 61.5 | |
| Janet Butler | Labor | 11,642 | 38.5 |
Booths in Lockyer have been divided into three parts: central, east and west. The ‘east’ covers booths contained in the Somerset council area, while the remainder is contained within Lockyer Valley council area.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.7% in the east to 65.5% in the west.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.6% in the west to 15.2% in the centre.
| Voter group | ON prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 15.2 | 62.6 | 5,143 | 17.0 |
| West | 13.6 | 65.5 | 2,303 | 7.6 |
| East | 14.4 | 50.7 | 2,109 | 7.0 |
| Pre-poll | 13.0 | 62.1 | 11,228 | 37.1 |
| Other votes | 12.1 | 61.7 | 9,475 | 31.3 |
Election results in Lockyer at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor, One Nation and independent candidate Jim Savage.
Easy retain for the LNP and another seat which could end up being an LNP v PHON two party preferred.
Definitely an LNP vs ONP battle here.
While this area usually has a very strong ONP vote, the swing away from One Nation was so high here (21.1%) last time because former ONP candidate Jim Savage ran as an independent, getting just above 10% of the vote. If he’s not running again, then I reckon there will be at least a 6% swing back to One Nation. Plus the ALP vote will experience a massive drop, putting One Nation in second place.
Will probably be something like a 20% to 25% LNP vs ONP margin here.