ALP 13.2%
Incumbent MP
Joe Kelly, since 2015.
Geography
South-East Brisbane. Greenslopes covers the Brisbane suburbs of Holland Park, Greenslopes and Holland Park West, and parts of Coorparoo, Camp Hill, Mount Gravatt and Carina.
History
The seat of Greenslopes has existed since 1960. In that time the seat has always been won by a party of government.
The seat was won in 1960 by Liberal candidate Keith Hooper. He had previously held the seat of Buranda since 1957. He held Greenslopes until his death in 1977.
In 1977 the seat was won by Bill Hewitt. He had previously held the seat of Chatsworth for the Liberals since 1966. He was defeated in Greenslopes in 1983 by National Party candidate Leisha Harvey.
Harvey became a minister in the Ahern government in 1987. In 1989 she lost her seat to Labor candidate Gary Fenlon.
Fenlon was re-elected in 1992 before losing to Liberal candidate Ted Radke in 1995. Fenlon won the seat back off Radke in 1998. He then went on to be re-elected repeatedly in 2001, 2004 and 2006.
In 2009, Fenlon retired and was succeeded by Cameron Dick. The new member for Greenslopes was immediately promoted to cabinet and served first as Attorney-General and then as Minister for Education in the Bligh government.
In 2012, Cameron Dick was defeated by LNP candidate Ian Kaye. Kaye served one term, losing in 2015 to Labor’s Joe Kelly. Kelly was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
- Andrew Newbold (Liberal National)
- Rebecca White (Greens)
- Joe Kelly (Labor)
- Karine Davis (Family First)
- Hugh Dickson (One Nation)
Assessment
Greenslopes is a safe Labor seat. The Greens poll strongly in this seat but are some way off being a serious threat of winning.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joe Kelly | Labor | 13,426 | 41.3 | -1.0 |
| Andrew Newbold | Liberal National | 10,238 | 31.5 | -4.9 |
| Victor Huml | Greens | 7,609 | 23.4 | +2.2 |
| John Booker | One Nation | 805 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Jasmine (Jazzy) Melhop | Informed Medical Options | 403 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 640 | 1.9 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joe Kelly | Labor | 20,529 | 63.2 | +3.1 |
| Andrew Newbold | Liberal National | 11,952 | 36.8 | -3.1 |
Booths in Greenslopes have been divided into three areas: east, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 62.6% in the north-east to 72.5% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 25.2% in the south-east to 31.5% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 26.0 | 62.6 | 4,066 | 12.5 |
| South-East | 25.2 | 67.2 | 3,226 | 9.9 |
| West | 31.5 | 72.5 | 1,928 | 5.9 |
| Pre-poll | 23.0 | 62.5 | 11,694 | 36.0 |
| Other votes | 21.1 | 61.5 | 11,567 | 35.6 |
Election results in Greenslopes at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
It was reported in the Australia the Greens are reportedly confident of adding Greenslopes to their existing haul of Maiwar and South Brisbane, while McConnel and Cooper were more listed as ‘promising’. I would be very surprised the Greens gained this seat, and still think there best chances are McConnel and Cooper. Especially McConnel if Grace Grace doesn’t recontest where there has been some speculation in the media.
The primary votes between Labor and the Greens are still too much apart to make up in one election. I will acknowledge the Greens gaining federal seat of Griffith will help with resources. And there success at a federal level may have a splash on effect in this seat as well.
Agree PN
This is more of a suburban seat. I feel McConnel is more likely given more apartments, a younger demographic and generally more of LIB/Green area especially around Teneriffe etc
I disagree with Political Nightwatchman, because the primary votes of the last state election mean very little when the underlying political reality has changed. The Greens winning Griffith was a game changer for this seat, but also, Labor are not doing well in the polls, which makes this seat the most vulnerable it’s been since the Labor resurgence in 2015. It’d still require a strong Greens campaign to win here, but they have to be regarded as a realistic chance, especially if they manage to win Coorparoo ward in the preceding council elections.
Interesting bit of trivia: If the Greens manage to win Greenslopes this year it will be only the second seat in any state or federal parliament in the country to have been won by both the Nationals and the Greens at some point (after Ballina of course.) If they miss out that spot could go to Richmond (federal) instead in 2025.
You could argue Maiwar by way of Toowong already achieved this as well but it’s been reconfigured and renamed several times in between the two.
Greenslopes could be close. I suspect Labor’s vote to drop by close to 10% but almost all of it will go to the Greens. I can see a scenario whereby the Greens and LNP are almost on the same primary vote (each polling around 33%) and Labor coming third with 30/31%. If that eventuates the Greens win with a strong TCP.
Where the three top candidates finish after the distribution of preferences will be critical – either ALP retain or Greens gain.
Poll Bludger has 4 candidates on the Ballot in the order of Labor, LNP, Greens & One Nation.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Greenslopes
Labor retain. It’s possible that Labor falls behind LNP on primary votes but wins by getting most Green preferences.
@Caleb, nominations close at midday, Tuesday 8 October 2024 and the ballot order will be drawn that afternoon.
My HTV for Greenslopes
1. GRN
2. Labor
3. FFP
4. PHON
5. LNP
@Caleb why One Nation and FFP before LNP?
Family First is a name I have not heard in a very long time, though they disintegrated and merged into Bernadi’s conservatives which also disintegrated.
Bob Day is also no longer senator.
The party had its time in 2004 at the federal election, those days are gone now.
@ Daniel T
You are correct, although i think it does have a decent support base among religious voters. Merging into Bernadi’s Conservatives was a mistake as that party was a flop they ran in the Victorian state election.
Hearing the LNP say they’ll swap full preferential for OPV was all the reason I needed, any other time they would be third.
Whilst they share a name (and both were based in South Australia) the current iteration of Family First doesn’t have anything to do with the previous iteration, which died with Australian Conservatives. This one was founded by two SDA-aligned ex-Labor Cabinet Ministers. Bob Day actually has a new party, the Australian Family Party.
Any seat with margin greater than 10?%, has a bias in favour of being retained. Any seat with a.margin of 5% or less has a bias of the reverse. With.a global margin for Queensland of approx 56/45 or 8%. Those seats with a margin 6 to 10% will probably determine the.election. I presume kap and the lnp will retain all their seats.
As someone who lives in the Griffith electorate (and lived both Greenslopes/Bulimba), there’s quite a lot of anger here with MCM. He has done little to nothing for the community who elected him, and people are waking up to the fact we may have just been used. There are also plenty of stories getting around of his staff getting quite aggressive when challenged on his results.
Honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see a backlash against the Greens in Greenslopes, Bulimba, (maybe Sth Bris?) etc
I’m taking the lnp @$10 here for the maximum $28 bet sports bet will allow.
@bob with that anger do you believe the on can take the seat or will they go to labor
@bob u sure we living in the same electorate? I haven’t seen any evidence of anger at mcm what have u seen?
There are also plenty of stories getting around of his staff getting quite aggressive when challenged on his results.
I can definitely believe that.
The pushiness of some Greens volunteers at Polling Booths in Griffith had to be seen to be believed.
There are AEC Ruled that prohibit spruiking, let alone harrassment of the voter, these guys would single out the elderly and be at them right up to the 6 metre line.
OIC response?
“Oh, we’ve got to actually see them doing it before we can do anything about it”
Like RenaWare salesmen.
@bob @sam I tend to agree with Sam, i’ve heard no anti MCM sentiment and he’s become a very prominent figure in the greens, in my opinion, the most popular/publicised MP for the party…
What I find interesting about this seat is that, looking here at the Tally Room’s results map for 2020, and comparing it to Griffith’s result map for 2022, the same polling regions show a general flatline or decline in the green vote from 2020 to 2022, despite MCM winning in 2022. I think West End carried him across the line from what I can gather.
It would be very strange if the green vote decreased from 2020 to 2022, a year of QLD green landslide, and yet they win this seat…
On federal results the Greens would have a TCP of 62.3% against the LNP in Greenslopes. This does not include any prepolls or postals however.
@Votante That was pretty much ALP thinking in Griffith before the last Federal election – don’t worry if the LNP comes first in primary votes because Green preferences will put us over them. Unfortunately the ALP came third, which meant their preferences were distributed instead and The Greens took the seat.
On BCC results however 51.6% of the TCP went to the LNP against the Greens/Labor. Note that because all of Coorparoo Ward is in Greenslopes but only some of Holland Park Ward is I’ve added together all of the Coorparoo votes (including prepolls and postals) but only the booth results from the Greenslopes parts of Holland Park (most of which is just Mount Gravatt) and while Coorparoo (where most of Greenslopes is located) was LNP vs Greens, Holland Park was LNP vs Labor.
Never say never an 11% swing to lnp like last time puts them on an even footing given they would get onp and f2f preferences
Unlikely the LNP are running dead here.
So many comments on this website are just wishful thinking against people and parties the commenter doesn’t like, or for people and parties the commenter likes. Describing an entire party as being airheads, i.e. assuming they’re all stupid, is a great way to underestimate them and be in for a shock when they end up actually winning a seat or two. And that’s as true of One Nation or another party of the right as it is of the Greens.
Every election a handful of partisan trolls roll around to make stupid facebook-tier posts to 10 of the least reachable politics related social media consumers in the country. Just ignore
The ACT and NSW elections are pretty obviously off topic. Deleted a bunch of comments. Bob is in moderation now.