Gaven – Queensland 2024

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  1. Meaghan Scanlon is considered a rising star in the Labor party. And her recent promotion to cabinet suggest Labor expect big things from her. On paper you would think if the LNP win the election that this seat will change hands considering the seat of Gaven is based in conservative Gold Coast. But because Scanlon has built up such a buffer at 7.8%, I’m thinking its going to be too much for the LNP to pull back in one election. On the current statewide polling a Labor hold, on a reduce margin.

  2. Promotions to cabinet can also be to sandbag marginal seats that there is some internal concern of. Although in this circumstance I agree with you that its probably mostly that Labor see big things from her. It would be Labor’s dream to have an elected popular Labor figure in South East Queensland that can blunt LNP’s success in QLD federally (like Rudd did). While simultaneously adding more of Gold Coast’s geography into the key seat mix at state elections. Especially as the Gold Coast continues to urbanise and grows as a proportion of the state and country. Scanlon is a fairly good blue-sky investment in Labor’s future electoral success.

  3. Its been reported there is a tussle going in the LNP preselection for Gaven, with television personality Bianca Stone showing interest in standing. Stone doesn’t live in this seat according to Meaghan Scanlon, and it will be a tough battle to win it from a rank and file vote it was reported. But it was also reported she has “the captain’s call”, being supported by party leader David Crisafulli. Kirsten Jackson the previous LNP Gaven candidate from the Queensland state election in 2020, and Lisa Smith, a teacher and rural fire brigade volunteer are expected to nominate for preselection.

  4. @Political Nightwatchman well, that’s a surprise.

    Bianca Stone is a former news reporter who worked as a Queensland respondent for Channel 7, reporting Queensland-related news on Sunrise, the most popular brekky TV program in Australia. She did recently quit Sunrise after 18 years on the show, but a move into politics is very unexpected.

    I’ve got nothing against her but I think it’s a pretty strange announcement from Bianca. And I’m not saying a journalist can’t win a seat: ABC reporter Maxine McKew won Bennelong for Labor in 2007, narrowly unseating then-Prime Minister John Howard in a blue-ribbon seat in northern Sydney.

    Where is Bianca actually from if she’s not from Gaven? I thought she was from the Gold Coast but I have no clue which suburb or electoral district she’s from.

  5. I read into Bianca Stone’s life, and she’s certainly overcome a lot, having fled domestic violence at 15 and becoming a single mother a few years later, yet being a high academic achiever all the while. Not the stereotypical background of the average candidate, let alone an LNP one. Perhaps that’ll help her seem more relatable to people doing it tough now.

    Haven’t been able to find which electorate she lives in, save for that it’s on the Gold Coast somewhere. I did see that she went to Merrimac State High School, although confusingly that’s in Mermaid Waters.

  6. I read another article that suggested Bianca Stone ‘set for shock career switch into politics’. Reading between the lines it looks like a done deal. If Stone is given the parachute or the captain pick for the seat of Gaven which now is looking increasingly likely. It could get messy for the LNP, as it stated in the original article a source quoted that the previous LNP candidate for Gaven, Kirsten Jackson, was “considering her options”. That doesn’t exactly rule out her running as an independent if Jackson misses out on preselection.

  7. Scanlon has a margin of 7.75%, but today’s YouGov poll shows a 9.2% primary increase for the LNP, putting her at risk if the overall swing is reflected here. As Scanlon is young and presumably seen as a rising star in the Labor Party given they elevated her to the frontbench, what might her political future hypothetically be if she loses this election? Unless there’s serious demographic or cultural change, Gaven is unlikely to ever become a safe Labor seat, so she could recontest in 2028 but even if she won again, she’d always be at risk. Could Labor put her second on their Senate ticket behind Nita Green?

  8. I would agree Wilson that this is now looking tight for Labor. I will be tipping this to be one of the closest races on the night given the most recent polling. I imagine that Gold Coast Labor will now be directing much of their campaign energy and efforts into sandbagging this seat now rather than their Gold Coast targets Theodore, Coomera, Currumbin, Burleigh and Mermaid Beach.

  9. I am not suggesting that they will be completely giving up or sacrificing these target seats, but I think that ALP’s campaigning on the Gold Coast can risk being spread too thin if they are not considered and deliberate in their targeting. I think that their core priority now will be making sure they hold these seat because it is key to their development goals in the future. Burleigh (incumbent retiring), Currumbin (close margin) and Coomera (close margin + demographic change) will certainly still be live contests. Theodore will probably still end up being a peripheral focus too because of its current margin and proximity to Gaven. It will get some of the rub from the campaigning purely by virtue of its proximity.

  10. Labor only missed out on.a second senate spot in 2019. Quota is about 30%…2/7 of the votes

  11. @mick now that the greens are able to get one member elected labor will only get a second in their good years 2007, 2022 etc when they take govt from opposition in the other years unless something radical happens laobr will only be able to manage 1. so come 2028 either watt or chisholm will have to miss out.

  12. The LNP will put resources here to take out a Minister and potential future Labor leader. Especially considering Fentiman, Linard have been rather damaged in the last term while the likes of Farmer, Grace, Ryan, De Brenni don’t really have future leader potential. It’s a bit thin behind Dick for next leaders of the party. The other options have little Ministerial experience McMahon, McCallum, Mellish, Boyd.

  13. She is a high profile minister and clearly a leading talent. My whole point is her seat being within range makes it a target to take out so she isn’t a leadership option post election or anytime in the next term or two.

  14. @LNPinsider I agree she is a high-profile minister but I think she’ll probably go to the Senate next, just saying.

  15. This is one of the too close to calls for me and one both sides will throw everything at. If I had to take a guess, I’d say the LNP will win by a whisker at this stage (especially if Stone is their candidate).

    Meaghan is an exceptionally talented young MP for Labor and a solid Minister, from what I can see.

    Miles made a mistake by giving her so many portfolios (Housing, Planning, Local Government and Public Works) when she’s trying to defend what is traditionally a marginal seat. It’ll take her away from Gaven and make campaigning near impossible during the actual election campaign.

  16. Quite right. Worst Labor Premier in the country right now. Never understood what Labor saw in him.

    I thought his elevation to Deputy Premier was a stretch.

  17. PRP, Jacinta Allan gives him a run for his money after the disastrous state budget down here. But of course Allan isn’t up until 2026.

  18. Former Sunrise reporter Bianca Stone wins LNP preselection for Gold Coast seat of Gaven it’s been reported in the Courier Mail.

  19. @PN the weird thing about that is that it’s turned from a genuine surprise to an unsurprising situation in like two months.

    I expected her to win once I heard she was running but I didn’t expect her to actually run in the first place. To use a soccer analogy, it’s like how nobody thought Bayer Leverkusen would win the German Bundesliga but eventually were the favourites to win the season unbeaten after a long unbeaten streak.


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