LNP 19.2%
Incumbent MP
Pat Weir, since 2015.
Geography
Southern Queensland. Condamine covers rural areas to the west of Toowoomba, entirely contained within the Toowoomba local government area. The seat covers Oakey, Pittsworth, Clifton and some outer parts of Toowoomba.
The seat of Condamine was created newly at the 2009 election, taking parts of the abolished seats of Darling Downs and Cunningham. The seat of Condamine had previously existed as a seat from 1950 to 1992, and for most of that time was held by the Country Party/National Party.
The district of Cunningham existed continuously from 1888 to 2009, and was won by the Country/National Party at every election from 1920 onwards.
Tony Elliott held Cunningham for the National Party from 1974 to 2001. He served as a minister in the Bjelke-Petersen government from 1980 to 1983, and again served as an opposition frontbencher in the early 1990s.
Elliott retired in 2001, and was succeeded by fellow National Stuart Copeland. Copeland won re-election in 2004 and 2006.
The seat of Darling Downs was created in 2001, with the same name as an earlier seat that had been abolished in 1888.
In 2001, the seat was won by independent candidate Ray Hopper, who joined the National Party later the same year.
Hopper joined the opposition frontbench in 2004, and won a second and third term as Member for Darling Downs.
Both Hopper and Copeland joined the newly-merged Liberal National Party in 2008, and when their seats were abolished in the 2008 redistribution, Hopper won LNP preselection for Condamine.
Hopper and Copeland both ran for Condamine in 2009, Hopper as the LNP candidate and Copeland as an independent. Hopper won the seat with 61.6% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, with Copeland coming second. Copeland managed 25% of the primary vote.
Ray Hopper was easily re-elected in 2012, winning 58% of the primary vote and over 70% of the two-candidate-preferred vote. In November 2012, he resigned from the LNP and joined Katter’s Australian Party and became the KAP state parliamentary leader shortly afterwards.
Hopper decided to run for the seat of Nanango at the 2015 election, but was unsuccessful. The LNP’s Pat Weir won Condamine.
Weir was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
- Pat Weir (Liberal National)
- Ellisa Parker (Greens)
- Ben Whibley-Faulkner (Labor)
- Clay Harland (One Nation)
- Alan Hughes (Family First)
Assessment
Condamine is a safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pat Weir | Liberal National | 18,466 | 54.7 | +12.9 |
| Brendon Huybregts | Labor | 7,775 | 23.0 | +5.0 |
| Greg Priebe | One Nation | 5,286 | 15.6 | -8.1 |
| Sean Womersley | Greens | 1,659 | 4.9 | -0.1 |
| Nui Harris | United Australia | 595 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Informal | 993 | 2.9 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Pat Weir | Liberal National | 23,376 | 69.2 | |
| Brendon Huybregts | Labor | 10,405 | 30.8 |
Booths in Condamine have been divided into four areas. Polling places on the outskirts of Toowoomba were grouped together, and the remainder of the seat was split into central, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 67% in the outskirts of Toowoomba to 72.4% in the south.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.6% in the south to 20.9% in the centre.
| Voter group | ON prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Toowoomba Outskirts | 13.9 | 67.0 | 4,123 | 12.2 |
| Central | 20.9 | 67.1 | 4,116 | 12.2 |
| North | 16.6 | 69.6 | 1,410 | 4.2 |
| South | 13.6 | 72.4 | 1,309 | 3.9 |
| Other votes | 14.3 | 70.9 | 12,024 | 35.6 |
| Pre-poll | 15.9 | 68.5 | 10,799 | 32.0 |
Election results in Condamine at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and One Nation.
Another easy win for the LNP. 5% swing to the LNP here last election, against the trend elsewhere with older populations.
I think the Greater Toowoomba area is just becoming very conservative.
Will probably remain an LNP v Labor contest, but One Nation might slip into second if they’re performing well across the state.
I think this will be an LNP vs One Nation contest, purely based on the drop in Labor vote.