Broadwater – Queensland 2024

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  1. Is David Crisafulli the next premier of Queensland? You would have to think there is good chance from the polls and the bye-election result last weekend. Crisafulli isn’t running small target, he is running no target. It even got to the point where he refused to commit to a position after Queensland state government rejected Graham Quirk’s Olympics stadium’s review proposal. After Steven Miles committed funding to upgrades to QEII and Suncorp stadium.

    I wonder if Crisafulli losing his seat in North Queensland and moving to the Gold Coast, may be a blessing in disguise for him career wise. Premiers generally don’t get elected from the regions anymore. Labor has all but ditched having leaders based in the regions since the late Wayne Goss became leader in 1988. And have won the last 11 out the 12 Queensland state elections.

    Broadwater is one of the safest LNP seats in Queensland. LNP retains.

  2. In the exceptionally unlikely the event Labor retains government. I suspect a by-election here next year or 2026. Could the losing candidates for the Fadden Liberal Pre-selection run here in that case? There was a well respected doctor who ran but I forgot his name. He could run here.

    Other than that, perhaps Cameron Caldwell might not like federal politics and give this seat another crack? He was the candidate in 2012 until he was dumped.

  3. @john

    This seat is on a 16.6% margin. I don’t understand your rationale that the LNP won’t hold this seat if Labor wins the next election. If Labor wins it won’t be by a landslide which it would need to win Broadwater.

    @Daniel T

    I think your point of a bye-election in this seat is premature and irrelevant. Especially when the LNP have former leaders who are happy to stay on in at parliament on the public purse (Tim Nicholls, John Paul-Langbroek, Deb Frecklington).

  4. Agree PN, even in the unlikely event the LNP fail to win government – David Crisafulli is still seen as someone who can easily take on a shadow ministerial portfolio under a different leader and would be seen as someone the party wants to keep.

  5. This could be like Surfers Paradise in 2001.

    It will be interesting to see if Crisafulli hangs around after the election.
    It is a long commute from his cane farm in the Herbert Valley to Brisbane.

  6. I think he means when Crisafulli stands down after he losses an election or resigns as premier (2028) or the period between 2028-2032. Then I suspect yes, He won’t stick around too much unlike his predecessors as leaders, Because he has much higher expectations than they did of winning.

  7. I expect Crisafullis government to be a 3 term government. He won’t lose 2028 unless he makes the same mistakes Newman did and he won’t lose 2032 unless he fucks up the Olympics (and even then, I expect that Australia will be back on the conservative side of the political spectrum by that point).

  8. @scart agrred the olympics is what will guarantee him to be a 3 term govt if he can deliver it

  9. John,
    Remember what happened in 2001?
    Just in case you have forgotten. Opposition Leader Borbidge was so confident of a landslide win, he dared Premier Beattie to call an early election. Borbidge lost the election convincingly. He then resigned from parliament and his seat was won by independent Lex Bell.

  10. Agree John and Scart, Crisafulli appears competent and is unlikely to make the major mistakes Campbell Newman did previously. He appears to be like former NSW Premier Barry O Farrell who will provide a more ‘steady hand’ for the conservative side and the only way he will leave the position if he has a lapse of judgement (again like O Farrell who had a minor personal scandal that cost him the leadership).

  11. QLD may have a 2 term LNP government however I highly doubt Australia will be “conservative” in the 2030’s with the demographic trends and the attitudes of younger voters continue.

    Cutting public services and disability/ment health supports as well as centerlink will never be a vote winner. Unless they become more moderate on these positions.

    Sky News and co and what they are pushing for at very best will make them lose narrowly nationwide. (With the caveat of Labor screwing up) but they aren’t winning by making young peoples lives a living misery.

    What was considered center-left 10 years ago may be considered centrist now however.

  12. @Daniel T Long term shifts in voting patterns are starting amongst young people (though mostly in other countries). Take a look at Canada after 9 years of Trudeau for instance. Even Trump is starting to do better amongst Gen Z. Once Labor have been in for 5+ years is when the pendulum will really start to shift here, though I agree that the LNP disassociating from Credlin, Bolt and co (if that eve happens) will make that process a lot easier.

  13. @Scart the LNP aren’t associated with Credlin or Bolt or any of the other Sky After Dark mob. They back One Nation.

  14. Yoh An, what has Crisafulli done to give you such an impression? I can already point to one laughably silly position of his, the desire to rename Cross River Rail as the Elizabeth Line, despite it not being a line in and of itself, but a link used by multiple lines. It’s the silliest policy I’ve heard in Australian politics since Tony Abbott wanted to bring back knights and dames and begin by conferring the honour on Prince Philip.

  15. I wouldn’t make predictions beyond the next term. We don’t know who the next LOTO will be like and what Crisafulli will be like. Premiers resigning or losing within a term or two are becoming more common.

    People in 2012 expected Campbell Newman to be the Premier and Labor to be in Opposition for multiple terms, possibly even a generation. Neither of them happened. I’m sure Crisafulli has spent enough time in Opposition to learn from the mistakes of Newman and is more small-target this time. You might be correct in 2032 and 2036, but so will a broken clock.

  16. @Scart they may be perceived as that by many left-leaning people but I think more people listen to the LOTO than Sky After Dark.

  17. “I wouldn’t make predictions beyond the next term. We don’t know who the next LOTO will be like and what Crisafulli will be like. Premiers resigning or losing within a term or two are becoming more common.”


    Correct. Annastasia Palaszczuk said when she was opposition leader Jeff Seeney told her Labor would be out of government for atleast 15 years. It was a combination of arrogance and smugness that brought the Newman government down. Also I can’t see David Crisafulli premier beyond 10 years if he lasts that long. Due to succession plans and leaders having a certain time frame. There was an argument former WA premier Colin Barnett should of handed over the reins before the 2017 WA state election.

  18. More replies:

    @Watson Watch there’s no way Labor Will win with Miles. He doesn’t even try. I know what happened in 2001 but I don’t “remember” it per se well because I was like six or seven years old living in NSW.

    @Scart while I can’t predict elections past the next one yet I can say that I would expect the LNP to be in power with a decreased majority in 2028 and 2032 but we don’t have any idea of the political situation of 2028 or 2032 so I can’t make predictions. But yes I expect the LNP to be re-elected unless they mess up.

    @Wilson it’s been renamed in honour of Queen Elizabeth II who was a popular monarch and her death was one of the biggest news stories of 2023 (maybe even the biggest). I woke up to the news that she died and it was a pretty sad moment since she’d been the Queen for so long. So I 100% understand why he would want to rename it in her honour.

  19. @ Nether Portal/Wilson
    The issue is that the Cross River Rail will not be a standalone line like Metro Tunnel so does not require a name. I would support maybe the new Boggo Road or Albert Street Station named instead in honour of Queen Ellizabeth II. Crossrail in London was named the Elizabeth line but that is a standalone line.

  20. Yes agree with Nimalan. It’s not a separate train line. It’s a path through the city that existing lines (Gold Coast Line, Beenleigh Line etc.) use. So there’s no point in naming it “the Elizabeth line”.

  21. Nether Portal, in addition to others echoing what my main problem is with it, the secondary issue is that not everyone in the state is a sycophant or toady to the monarchy the way that Crisafulli is. You might find it a worthy name for our infrastructure, but most Australians are either unsupportive of the monarchy or apathetic to it. You might say that renaming things after a deceased monarch who didn’t live in Australia is… what’s that word Peter Dutton used at the Voice referendum? Ah yes, “divisive”.

  22. Fair point/s Wilson and others, Crisafulli did make a foolish move with the ‘Elizabeth Line’ announcement. If he makes further gaffes whilst in office or especially later in the campaign it will be an indicator he won’t be seen as an attractive option.

  23. Well, the Metro Tunnel isn’t a standalone line either. It’s a new alignment for the Sunbury, Pakenham, and Cranbourne lines, similar to how CRR is a new alignment for the Beenleigh, Gold Coast, Redcliffe, and Sunshine Coast lines. The suggested policy to rename CRR the “Elizabeth Line” struck me as strange and quite ill-informed. I imagine the new train announcement would sound something like “This is a Beenleigh train via the Elizabeth line, stopping all stations” but it still feels like a weird decision.

  24. @Inari28 i agree Metro Tunnel is not a standalone line either and that was my point exactly which is why when metro tunnel opens it actually will not have a name they can just name one the new CRR stations like Boggo Road the Elizabeth station instead.

  25. Ah forgive me, I thought you were giving the Metro Tunnel as an example of a distinct line.

    Naming CRR after Elizabeth isn’t the worst idea, but we already have things named after her like QEII Courts of Law. I remember Meanjin Line was getting thrown around a while ago, and despite CRR’s obvious lack of line-ness I would prefer that name because it honours something we haven’t honoured yet. It has the added benefit of being geographically accurate, because Meanjin referred specifically to the “spike” in the river that the CBD is situated on, and that CRR will service.

    As for Broadwater, it’s the LNP retainiest LNP retain to ever LNP retain.


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