The Tally Room

Close seats – Thursday morning update

Ben Raue - July 7, 2016

Quite a bit of counting took place yesterday. Yesterday we narrowed the list of seats to watch from 17 to 12, and today I think we can narrow that list to nine. Seat summary I'm ready to call Melbourne Ports for Labor and Grey and Dunkley for...

Close seat update – here’s the model

Ben Raue - July 6, 2016

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We saw a small amount of counting yesterday, but we should be able to narrow the list of undecided seats. When I last posted, I listed 17 seats as in some doubt. This included 13 conventional Labor-Coalition races, plus Grey and Cowper, where we were...

Pauline Hanson and the old Senate system

Ben Raue - July 5, 2016

15

There's been a lot of arguments coming out suggesting that Pauline Hanson and the rest of her team are only contenders for seats thanks to the Senate voting reforms, and the double dissolution. Clearly a double dissolution made it easier for all small parties, including...

Looking forward in the close seats

Ben Raue - July 3, 2016

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I have a list of sixteen seats which I think are close enough to pay further attention over the next few days as more votes flow in. In this article I want to explain what data we will be receiving which will help us project...

The day after – quick update

Ben Raue - July 3, 2016

20

Firstly, apologies for the technical problems last night. I hope that readers were able to follow my commentary as part of the Guardian liveblog. In future if I'm participating in a liveblog somewhere else I'm not going to try and keep my own liveblog...

Federal election live

Ben Raue - July 2, 2016

1

In addition to updating this liveblog here, you can also follow my commentary on Twitter or at the Guardian liveblog. 9:26pm - Sorry guys, I'm going to cut this short. Follow the Guardian liveblog for my coverage, I haven't got the space to do both. I...

Election eve open thread

Ben Raue - July 1, 2016

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Polls open on the east coast in fifteen hours. I thought I might open up a quick post to allow commenters to post general comments about the election. If you have predictions feel free to post them below. I have had a number of articles up...

Early voting update

Ben Raue - June 20, 2016

13

The Australian Electoral Commission is publishing daily statistics on the number of postal vote applications (PVAs) received, and the number of votes cast at pre-poll centres. After six weeks of the campaign, and one week of pre-poll, we now have a sense of the...

Seat polls – how do they compare?

Ben Raue - June 18, 2016

7

We've seen a surge in seat polls at this election. By my count I've found at least 50 polls which have been publicly released since the beginning of April. This is suggests we are on track for a big increase since 2013. You can download my list...

Nominations announced – final update

Ben Raue - June 11, 2016

3

Nominations were declared at midday yesterday, and I've just finished updating the candidate lists for each seat and the eight Senate races. I wrote speculatively about the number of candidate nominations on Thursday in the Guardian. At the time of writing, 772 House of Representatives...