In addition to updating this liveblog here, you can also follow my commentary on Twitter or at the Guardian liveblog.
9:26pm – Sorry guys, I’m going to cut this short. Follow the Guardian liveblog for my coverage, I haven’t got the space to do both. I may return tomorrow with some kind of summary, although I’ll also be doing some writing for the Guardian.
7:45pm – The Greens are doing very well in Batman and Wills, which they could be winning. The Greens have also gained a swing of almost 10% in Richmond, but will still come third. The Greens have not gained much if any swing in Grayndler and Sydney.
7:40pm – Sorry guys, been busy sending snippets to the Guardian and making calls on seats for their model. It looks pretty clear that Labor has gained three Tasmanian seats plus Macarthur, looking good in Macquarie and well and truly holding the notional Liberal seats of Dobell, Paterson and Barton.
Things aren’t looking great for Tony Windsor in New England.
6pm: Polls have just closed on the east coast. We should start to see data in about half an hour.
(Unfortunately, your site seemed to give up on the election result too!)
Yes, well….t’s fair to say that was an unexpected and confusing result. The Coalition lost seats they would never have expected to, but also held on to some seats most people expected them to lose. There also seemed to be a late movement to Labor in the early hours of the morning…either a big batch of pro-Labor votes came in, or the AEC’s projected 2PPs were well off in several seats. e.g. Flynn now seems a certain Labor gain despite looking safe for the LNP for most of the count.
According to the AEC, the Coalition are leading in 72 seats (the 66 listed plus 6 “to be determined” Coalition seats where they took the wrong 2CP count). Given their relative strength in declaration votes, I’d expect them to hold all the seats they are leading in, and flip Chisholm back.
From there it gets tricky for them…on 2013 declarations they would just squeak back in with Forde and Capricornia, but fall just short in seats like Hindmarsh and Cowan. There is also apparently still the possibility they will fall behind in Grey vs NXT.
Basically, the Coalition should likely finish with more seats, barring something really weird. But they will need a slightly stronger flow of declaration votes to pinch a majority.
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