ALP 0.3% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Ngaree Ah Kit, since 2016.
Geography
Northern Darwin. Karama covers the suburbs of Karama and Malak, and also stretches south to the edge of Berrimah.
Redistribution
Karama gained a thinly populated areas to the south of McMillans Road from Spillett. This change slightly reduced the Labor margin against the 2016 independent from 0.8% to 0.3%. It is estimated that the Labor vs CLP margin is over 12%.
History
The electorate of Karama has existed since 1987. The electorate was held by the CLP until 2001, and has been won by Labor at every election since.
The CLP’s Mick Palmer won Karama in 1987. Palmer had held the seat of Leanyer since 1983, but moved to Karama after the redistribution. Palmer held Karama until 2001.
In 2001, Labor’s Delia Lawrie won the seat off Palmer. Lawrie was re-elected in 2005, 2008 and 2012. Lawrie joined the ministry in 2005. She was promoted to deputy chief minister in 2009.
Lawrie was elected Labor leader in 2012 after Labor lost power at the 2012 election. Lawrie faced legal issues related to the grant of a lease to Unions NT, and in April 2015 she stepped down as leader in the face of a leadership challenge.
In October 2015, the NT Labor Party decided to not endorse Lawrie for Karama at the 2016 election, and Lawrie resigned from the party to sit on the crossbench.
The seat was won in 2016 by Labor candidate Ngaree Ah Kit, who narrowly defeated Lawrie, running as an independent.
Candidates
- Caleb Cardno (Territory Alliance)
- Brian O’Gallagher (Country Liberal)
- Ngaree Ah Kit (Labor)
Assessment
Karama would normally be considered a safe Labor seat, but was made very marginal by a former party leader running with her personal vote as the incumbent. In her absence this seat will likely revert to form, although the presence of Territory Alliance could shake things up.
2016 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ngaree Jane Ah Kit | Labor | 1,373 | 34.0 | -18.7 | 33.9 |
| Delia Lawrie | Independent | 1,316 | 32.6 | +32.6 | 31.5 |
| Jarred Ilett | Country Liberal | 923 | 22.8 | -18.7 | 23.9 |
| Edward D Solo | 1 Territory | 249 | 6.2 | +6.2 | 6.2 |
| Trevor Jenkins | Independent | 79 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.9 |
| Sonja Jebbink | Independent | 56 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.3 |
| Jimmy Gimini | Independent | 44 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 1.1 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 93 | 2.3 |
2016 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ngaree Jane Ah Kit | Labor | 1,702 | 50.8 | 50.3 | |
| Delia Lawrie | Independent | 1,647 | 49.2 | 49.7 |
Booth breakdown
There are two booths in Karama. Just under 40% of votes were cast at Karama, with a much smaller number at Manunda Terrace. 30% of the vote was cast at pre-poll.
Labor won a narrow majority in Karama and a larger majority in the other special votes. The independent narrowly won Manunda Terrace and the pre-poll.
| Voter group | ALP prim % | IND prim % | CLP prim % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Karama | 34.2 | 37.7 | 21.8 | 50.2 | 1,666 | 39.9 |
| Manunda Terrace | 33.5 | 38.9 | 19.3 | 48.8 | 591 | 14.2 |
| Pre-poll | 31.8 | 35.5 | 27.7 | 47.4 | 1,287 | 30.8 |
| Other votes | 37.7 | 30.1 | 25.9 | 57.8 | 628 | 15.1 |