Daly – NT 2020

CLP 1.3%

Incumbent MP
Gary Higgins, since 2012.

Geography
North-western parts of the Northern Territory. Daly covers rural areas south of Darwin, stretching to the edge of Katherine, and covering Berry Springs, Wadeye, Batchelor, Adelaide River and Pine Creek.

Redistribution
Daly expanded south to take in a large area from Stuart, but this area only contains a small number of voters. This change reduced the CLP margin from 2.1% to 1.3%.

History
The electorate of Daly was created in 2001 as a new version of the seat of Victoria River. The seat had moved north and the name was no longer appropriate. The seat of Victoria River/Daly has been a marginal seat for its entire existence, switching back and forth between Labor and the CLP over the last 42 years.

Victoria River was created for the first NT assembly election in 1974 and was won by the CLP’s Goff Letts. Letts served as Majority Leader in the first assembly from 1974 to 1977. Letts lost Victoria River in 1977, while the CLP won a comfortable majority in the Assembly.

Labor’s Jack Doolan won Victoria River in 1977, and held the seat until 1983, when he contested the seat as an independent Labor candidate.

The CLP’s Terry McCarthy won Victoria River in 1983. He held the seat until 1990, when he moved to the new seat of Goyder, which he held until 2001.

Labor’s Gary Cartwright held Victoria River from 1990 until 1994, when he was replaced by the CLP’s Tim Baldwin. Baldwin held Victoria River until 2001 when it was renamed Daly. He held Daly for one term, until he retired in 2005.

Labor’s Rob Knight won Daly in 2005. He held the seat for two terms, losing in 2012 to the CLP’s Gary Higgins.

Higgins became a minister in 2015, and was re-elected at the 2016 election. He was one of only two CLP members to win re-election, and he became leader of the party after the electoral wipe-out.

Higgins announced his retirement in early 2020, and stepped down as Country Liberal Party leader.

Candidates
Sitting Country Liberal MP Gary Higgins is not running for re-election.

• Will Kemp (Greens)
• Ian Sloan (Country Liberal)
• Regina McCarthy (Territory Alliance)
• Mick Denigan (Independent)
• Anthony Venes (Labor)

Assessment
Daly is very marginal on paper, although it’s hard to see Labor performing as strongly here as they did in 2016. If Territory Alliance does well they may take advantage of the incumbent MP retiring.

2016 result

2016 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Daly contains two ordinary booths, but almost one third of the vote was cast through mobile teams in remote communities.

The CLP won a large 68% majority in Wadeye and a slim 52% majority in Berry Springs, while also narrowly winning the pre-poll. Labor did much better in the mobile vote, polling 59%.