TA 1.4%
Incumbent MP
Terry Mills, since 2016.
Geography
Palmerston. Blain covers southern parts of the city of Palmerston, including the suburbs of Woodroffe and Bellamack, and part of Rosebery.
Redistribution
Part of Rosebery was transferred to Brennan, but this did not change the margin.
History
The electorate of Blain has existed since 1997, and had always been won by the Country Liberal Party until the last election.
Blain was first won in 1997 by the CLP’s Barry Coulter. Coulter had sat in the Assembly since 1983, first representing Berrimah from 1983 to 1987 and then representing Palmerston from 1987 t0 1997. Coulter had served as deputy chief minister from 1986 to 1995. Coulter resigned from his seat in 1999.
The 1999 by-election was won by the CLP’s Terry Mills. Mills became CLP leader in 2003, serving as leader until shortly before the 2005 election. He served as deputy leader from after the 2005 election until shortly before the 2008 election, when he again became the party’s leader. Mills led the CLP to a strong result in 2008, recovering from the 2005 defeat and bringing Labor close to losing their majority.
Terry Mills led the CLP through the 2008-2012 term, and led the party to victory in 2012, becoming chief minister. Mills was replaced as party leader and chief minister in early 2013, and resigned from his seat in 2014.
The 2014 by-election was won by the CLP’s Nathan Barrett despite a swing of 10% to Labor. Barrett became a minister in the CLP government, but was forced to resign from the ministry in 2016 over a video sex scandal. He quit the CLP two weeks later.
Barrett did not run for re-election, and his seat was won by Mills, now running as an independent. Mills formed a new party, the Territory Alliance, in 2019.
Candidates
- Mark Turner (Labor)
- Terry Mills (Territory Alliance)
- Matthew Kerle (Country Liberal)
Assessment
Blain has a long history as a solid conservative seat. The split in the conservative vote in 2016, along with the scandal driving the sitting MP to retire, contributed to a very marginal result. It seems likely that Mills will strengthen his margin, but it seems likely that the CLP will still poll a decent share of the vote and preferences might come into play.
2016 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Damian Hale | Labor | 1,597 | 37.3 | +5.3 | 37.4 |
| Terry Mills | Independent | 1,341 | 31.3 | +31.3 | 31.5 |
| Marie-Clare Boothby | Country Liberal | 1,102 | 25.7 | -37.9 | 25.4 |
| Gregory John Knowles | Independent | 241 | 5.6 | +5.6 | 5.7 |
| Informal | 121 | 2.7 |
2016 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Terry Mills | Independent | 1,953 | 51.4 | +51.4 | 51.4 |
| Damian Hale | Labor | 1,849 | 48.6 | +13.8 | 48.6 |
Booth breakdown
There were two booths in Blain in 2016: Rosebery and Woodroffe.
Terry Mills won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in every vote group. The primary vote for the two independents (including Mills) was substantially higher in Woodroffe than in Rosebery, but the CLP vote was much higher in Rosebery, largely cancelling out that effect after preferences. The Labor primary vote was largely consistent in every voter group, which was enough to top the primary vote in the pre-poll and Rosebery, but not Woodroffe.
| Voter group | ALP prim | CLP prim | IND prim | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 39.0 | 23.5 | 37.5 | 50.6 | 1,529 | 37.7 |
| Rosebery | 35.4 | 31.1 | 33.5 | 52.0 | 1,022 | 25.2 |
| Woodroffe | 37.0 | 19.3 | 43.7 | 52.6 | 782 | 19.3 |
| Other votes | 37.1 | 28.1 | 34.8 | 50.9 | 723 | 17.8 |
I’m not expert on Northern Territory politics but Terry Mills not only lossed, but he lossed badly. Not only did he lose his seat. But he failed to make the two party preferred count. A couple of theory’s going around, one is the pandemic and people are not interested in a third party such as Territory Alliance in uncertain times. It could be also an overly ambitious independent who bit off more then he could chew trying to start a new party. Anyone remember Nick Xenophon flame out with SA best in the 2018 SA state election? Or Jacquie Lambie’s party flop in the TA state election in 2018?
It will be interesting if this is a warning shot for minor parties heading into the Queensland election in two months time.
Labor are leading the count in Blain, with the CLP closely behind. Too close to call, but it’s looking very encouraging for Labor from what I’ve read.