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These shady donations aren’t a good look for Labor and one would have thought that when Labor was last in government it might have learned its lesson. What will be interesting to see is if Chris Minns is taken out like previous premiers as it still remains that Bob Carr was the last NSW premier to be re-elected.
One nation have said they will target the PM and obviously they aren’t winning grandlyer but if they did it with Minns could they be competitive?
It’s very clear that Chris Minns is concerned about the One Nation threat especially how he continues to mention them at various media conferences and has visited and promised jobs in the Hunter Valley. The polling for Labor in NSW primary vote is only slightly better than their neighbours in Victoria which is seriously bad news for them. Unlike Victoria where Labor has a commandeering majority and can afford to lose seats, Labor in NSW requires a swing towards them form majority government. On such a low primary vote for Labor and high One Nation primary vote I don’t see that happening as One Nation will almost win seats in the Hunter Valley, and the outer suburbs and in the regional centres and rural areas.
The main Labor seats at risk to One Nation are in the Hunter and in Western Sydney (namely Penrith and Camden).
I still think Labor can win the election after the Liberals and Nationals’ net loss of seats. Many Liberal seats are on low margins and One Nation would split the right-wing vote. The problem for the Liberals is that there is OPV and neither Labor nor ONP voters have to put a preference for another party. Most ONP votes exhaust. Without OPV, the Liberals coming second on the 3CP would mean they can still get most Labor or ONP preferences and possibly even come first after the distribution of preferences.