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This is one to watch. Federal Labor polled strongly in Berowra, the federal seat containing this state seat, at the last federal election.
The semi-rural suburbs in the west could see big swings to One Nation. The Liberals have a lot to lose elsewhere. Part of the vote will go to One Nation. Also, the suburbs along the train line are trending Labor due to young professionals seeking high-rise living. In lower density suburbs, there is a teal-ish, tree-change demographic.
Because of OPV, the grievance voters and protest voters, who lean to One Nation, don’t have to preference anyone. This puts the Liberals at a disadvantage if most of them are ex-Liberal voters.
Anyone done a calculation transposing 2025 federal results to these boundaries?
It would be interesting to see how One Nation performs in the Dural area. In some important ways it differs from other periurban semirural areas. It has some of the most obscene luxury real estate in all of Australia. It’s also significantly more religious than, say, acreage suburbs in Brisbane. I would expect both factors to favour the Liberals over One Nation.
I will still say Liberal Hold as only a small part of the seat is high density being around train stations but otherwise, it is wealthy suburbia and semi rural areas that tend to be Liberals but the latter on paper as potentially strong ONP but I could see a potentially some otherwise potential ONP Voters to tactical vote for the Liberals in this seat as a result of the OPV.
I agree with Marh and unlike Berowra this seat does not include Epping or go South of the M2 so it is actually less CALD than Berowra only Hornsby has some high density. Hornsby is quite far from CBD and does not have night life etc so i dont think it attracts as many young professionals. In any case the Federal seat of Berowra on 2022 electoral boundaries had the third lowest Rental share at only 16.3% the only seats that have a lower renter share are Casey and Moore.