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Genuinely can’t pick a winner here. The Liberals made strong gains at council elections in 2024 gaining 2/3 seats in Revesby Ward, but Labor won Banks and took down a strong MP in David Coleman. Kylie Wilkinson seems liked enough in the electorate to have a good shot of a second term, but the Liberals do have a solid base here and there will be additional motivation among the branches after losing Banks. I’d say a very narrow Labor win for now but expect this to be a hot seat with both leaders visiting regularly and really hinging on the statewide mood towards the government and if the opposition is credible enough,
@ James there is a long term drift to the Libs as i pointed out despite Libs losing this seat in 2023 they got a better result in East Hills than NSW as a whole so for the first time ever it is Liberal leaning seat on the Cook PVI.
Federally was an aberration poor liberal campaign overall wouldn’t be surprised if the liberals recapture banks next time. East hills will be a litmus test if they can win it back they can win banks
Pvi….in us presidential voting
This seat will be close and go with the government.i think the 2pp was alp 54% for nsw this figure is greater than the East Hills margin
East Hills was the first cab off the rank for alp win 2015….this change took till 2023.
Banks was lost 2013 but it took 12 years to change back. It is a brave person who presumes the results in East Hills and Banks
Yes, agreed. At the moment I would lean towards Kylie holding on, but it’s too far away to make a strong judgment now
It was a Labor heartland seat until 2011. Even though the Liberals lost in 2023, their seat 2PP became higher than the state 2PP for the first time in decades. Expect this to be a battleground seat.