LIB 6.3%
Incumbent MP
Geoff Lee, since 2011.
Geography
Western Sydney. Parramatta covers suburbs around the Parramatta CBD, including Clyde, Dundas, Ermington, Harris Park, Rydalmere and parts of Mays Hill, North Parramatta and Westmead. Parramatta also covers Newington, Silverwater and Wentworth Point on the Olympic Park peninsula. The electorate is almost entirely contained within the City of Parramatta.
Redistribution
Parramatta gained Silverwater, Newington, Wentworth Point and Sydney Olympic Park from Auburn, Clyde and part of Mays Hill from Granville, and Westmead from Seven Hills. In exchange, Parramatta lost Carlingford, Oatlands, Telopea and Dundas Valley to Epping. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 10.6% to 6.3%.
History
The electoral district of Parramatta has existed continuously since the first Legislative Assembly in 1856. The seat was first a two-member district until 1880, when it became a single-member district. It expanded in 1920 to become a three-member district, before becoming a single-member district in 1927. The seat was dominated by conservative parties in the early 20th century, but since the 1950s it has been dominated by the ALP, who won all but one election between 1959 and 2011.
Parramatta was won in a 1916 by-election by Liberal candidate Albert Bruntnell. Over the previous decade he had twice served in the Legislative Assembly, representing Surry Hills and Annandale. He served as Member for Parramatta continuously until his death in 1929. When Parramatta expanded in 1920 it took over the previous seat of Granville, and the former Member for Granville, Jack Lang, was elected as a member for Parramatta. He twice served as Premier, and when single-member districts were restored in 1927, he was elected in Auburn.
The 1929 by-election was won by senior military officer Herbert Lloyd, running as a Nationalist. He lost in 1930, but later held Mosman from 1932 to 1941.
Parramatta was won in 1930 by the ALP’s Joseph Byrne. He held the seat until 1932, when an election was triggered by the Governor’s removal of Lang as Premier. Byrne was one of many casualties of the ensuing landslide.
George Gollan won Parramatta in 1932 for the United Australia Party. He served as a minister in UAP governments from 1938 to 1941. He held the seat until the 1953 election, when a redistribution made the seat stronger for the ALP. He retired and was succeeded by the ALP’s Kevin Morgan.
Morgan held the seat for one term, losing in 1956 to Jim Clough of the Liberal Party. Clough himself lost in 1959. He later held the seat of Eastwood from 1965 to 1988. He served as a minister for the final four months of the Liberal government in 1976.
Parramatta was won in 1959 by the ALP’s Dan Mahoney. He held the seat until his retirement in 1976. Barry Wilde, also of the ALP, held the seat from 1976 to 1988.
The Liberal Party’s John Books won Parramatta in 1988 by 268 votes. In 1991, the redistribution made the seat notionally Labor, and Books lost to the ALP’s Andrew Ziolkowski.
Ziolkowski was diagnosed with cancer of the oesophagus in 1993, and died in 1994. The ensuing by-election was won by his wife Gabrielle Harrison. Harrison served as Minister for Sport and Recreation in the first term of the Carr government from 1995 to 1999.
Prior to the 2003 election, Harrison faced a preselection challenge from Tanya Gadiel, an advisor to Police Minister Michael Costa. In the face of the challenge she stepped down, and Gadiel won the seat in 2003.
Gadiel was re-elected in 2007 and became a parliamentary secretary shortly after. She left that post in 2008 to serve as Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, and she retired in 2011.
Liberal candidate Geoff Lee won Parramatta at the 2011 election, and he was re-elected in 2015 and 2019.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Geoff Lee is not running for re-election.
- Donna Davis (Labor)
- Ben Hammond (Greens)
- Katie Mullens (Liberal)
- Mritunjay Singh (One Nation)
- David Moll (Sustainable Australia)
Assessment
Geoff Lee has built up a strong position in Parramatta, but the redistribution removed his best part of the seat, and this seat could change hands if Labor does well.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Geoff Lee | Liberal | 26,322 | 54.0 | +0.2 | 49.9 |
| Liz Scully | Labor | 14,736 | 30.2 | +1.5 | 34.1 |
| Phil Bradley | Greens | 3,637 | 7.5 | -0.9 | 8.0 |
| Michelle Garrard | Independent | 1,955 | 4.0 | +0.8 | 2.8 |
| Samuel Bellwood | Keep Sydney Open | 1,023 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.4 |
| Jasmina Moltter | Sustainable Australia | 701 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.2 |
| Susan Price | Socialist Alliance | 354 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.6 |
| Others | 1.1 | ||||
| Informal | 1,621 | 3.2 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Geoff Lee | Liberal | 27,330 | 60.6 | -2.2 | 56.3 |
| Liz Scully | Labor | 17,733 | 39.4 | +2.2 | 43.7 |
Booths in Parramatta have been split into three parts: east, south-west and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 53.5% in the south-west to 59.8% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 8.2 | 59.8 | 13,204 | 29.8 |
| West | 7.8 | 55.1 | 7,632 | 17.2 |
| South-West | 7.3 | 53.5 | 5,514 | 12.5 |
| Other votes | 9.2 | 54.6 | 11,781 | 26.6 |
| Pre-poll | 6.5 | 56.1 | 6,140 | 13.9 |
Election results in Parramatta at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Geoff probably has the strongest personal vote in the state, but the Davis stronghold is not where the battle traditionally is and there might be goodwill towards Geoff that translates to the Lib candidate. A fascinating contest.
I doubt that Geoff Lee’s personal vote will carry through to Katie Mullens. At the very least the booths south of the Parramatta river would flip back to the Labor column. I think the biggest concern for the Libs apart from Geoff Lee not being around is the Olympic Park/Wentworth Point area which have lots of infrastructure grievances which would likely translate to a swing at the state level. There was a huge swing federally in this area with Sally Sitou campaigning heavily on local infrastructure inadequacies. Of course, there were other factors too so the 19% swing won’t be replicated but there is lots of room for the Labor vote to grow.
is mullins close to lee wasnt lee a modderit desbite backing from the right
The main action will be south of the Parramatta River. Lots of working class renters struggling with the cost of living, especially around Westmead and Harris Park. Additionally, Wentworth Point is still waiting for public transport and swung savagely towards to Labor at the federal election (17% swing to Labor in Wentworth Park North). Danger for the liberals.
The suburbs around Parramatta’s CBD are naturally Labor territory. It’s not so much working-class anymore but it’s got a huge number of renters, mainly as most residents are young professionals or young families or recent migrants. The fact that Geoff Lee held this seat and increased his margin whilst the federal seat of Parramatta remained Labor is a testament to his personal popularity.
I’m interested in seeing how electorates with large Chinese communities will vote. Michael Daley was the NSW Opposition Leader in 2019. He certainly did no favours to Labor. From memory, east of Silverwater Road (Newington, Wentworth Point, Ermington, Melrose Park) had swung big to Labor at the 2022 federal election. The state/federal Liberals lost big time in seats with large Chinese communities at the Vic/Fed elections.
well only problim is isnt Donna davis from epping not paramatter she is the mayor and the federal liberals wanted geoff lee to transfer to federal desbite the attacks on him buy Hadley did not seem to effect his vote i think he is the first liberal state mp for paramatter
so do we think Donna davis can win paramatter not sure how popular she is with the labor party branches in the aeria
The Libs will lose here despite a decent candidate, and a matchup they wouldnt mind. Donna Davis is not particularly popular and the word is her branches dont like her. The local ALP branches must be furious being denied 2 pre-selections in 12 months.
What finishes off the Libs is the mishandling of Wentworth Point infrastructure – there will be 20% swings against the Libs there with huge growth in the size of the booths – with 2 booths. That alone will deny Katie Mullens a berth into Parliament.
If Wentworth Point was not in the electorate, it’d be a Lib hold. Alas.
ALP Parramatta branchie here. Donna is very popular amongst the branches.
maybi Davis may not be as popular because she is not from the soft left faction that control the local branches then again her labor cowncil coleagues votedher to be mayor overEsper
AE Forecasts – LAB 1.9%
SportsBet – $1.30 LAB
TAB – $1.28 LAB
I think the Liberal Party had written this seat off for a while. I think this will be a Labor Gain
maybi the liberals ran a weak candadate hear and Davis seems reasonably high profile
@Hawkeye_au when Sportsbet first put up electorate betting for Parramatta they foolishly had Labor on $2.5 in this seat. Too bad they suspended betting for this seat before I was able to bet on it. They also foolishly had Labor on $1.4 for Strathfield and $1.65 for Cabramatta though to be fair at the time it looked like Carbone was going to contest Cabramatta. I still believe this will be one of the first seats to fall to Labor.
I did see that. I was wondering what the hell was going on with the early discussions and odds for the seat.
It is a shame as well because I think Geoff Lee would have held this seat again.
there is always a swing when the incumbent retires due to loss of personal vote. this is a certain seat up for grabs will be vunerable at the next election too as the swing shouldnt be more then 2% to the new labor memeber if they get up
The Liberals did put Geoff Lee’s photo and endorsement on their HTV cards and advertising. I agree that his personal popularity won’t carry over to the new Liberal candidate.
I’m tipping a Labor gain. Demographic and population shifts make this more Labor-friendly. Donna Davis has name recognition and a high profile as the local Lord Mayor and she also drew the first spot on the ballot paper.
from what im hearing parramatta is more at risk then penrith. they reckon libs could hold penrith but lose parramatta
First clear ALP gain on the night, and if ALP don’t gain an open seat with a high profile candidate where they did very well federally last year, then they’re going to lose the election.
Agree with the smiley face that this seat will be easier for Labor than Penrith despite the wider margin. I don’t think the Victorian election disproved any theories about emerging political realignments (affluent urban seats move left, outer suburbs move right) – Vic Labor had a lot of breathing space to hang on to those seats and were able to sandbag the others. So I’m not confident putting any other LNP held Western Sydney marginals into the ALP column, nor Monaro (Canberra’s “Outer suburbs” plus increasingly solid Nat territory). But Parramatta (state) seems to have characteristics of both sides of the realignment.
it seems like the liberals have given up hear dont seem to be putting much of an effort
what is the liberal candadates back ground they must be not doing well if they premote her as backed buy out going mp
@John, I would argue that Parramatta shares far more characteristics with the urban-left realignment. Yes while it is part of the “outer suburbs” of Greater Sydney, it has the same density and profile of a major urban centre on its own. High amount of constituents in medium to high density dwellings like 2 bedroom apartments. High amount of renters. High working age population. High numbers of people who have identified that they have Chinese ancestry (in the Census).
@John, I think the realignment is less likely to show up in NSW because NSW Labor has always been a bit more working class right than say Victoria – remember NSW Labor didn’t split in the 50’s to anything like Vic or QLD.
@ John if there was a realignment in Victoria in November then it would be across all of Victoria not just North and West Melbourne. For example in the South East of Melbourne is often as more deprived than other parts of Melbourne for Example Dandenong which really didnt swing and is now both the poorest urban seat and the safest Labor seat and the first seat called for Labor on election night. The area around Springvale in both Clarinda and Mulgrave did not swing much against Labor even though it is very much like St Albans both ethnically and socially. Also the seat of Lara which is includes a lot of deprived areas such as Corio, Norlane, North Shore did not swing much even with a retiring long term member. In Cranebourne it was the Liberal primary vote that collapsed not Labor’s. By stark contrast, the Wealthy areas of Brighton, Sandringham had an above average swing to the Libs. Daniel Andrews increased his majority by getting swings to him in middle income areas such as Nunawading, Wantirna, Langwarrin, Forest Hill and Ringwood not be winning Elite areas. Even in the North and West the growth areas such as Kalkallo, Melton, Werribee and Point Cook did not really see an anti-labor swing.
Anyone think Parramatta isn’t the first seat called for Labor?
@lnp im conceeding Parramatta due to retiring member and unfavourable redistribution. chance in east hills and penrith based on federal results and the word on the street. without those 2 labor have 0% chance at majority
@Nimalan,
The issue is any realignment won’t happen all at once, nor will it be a gradual move. Things will happen in fits and starts. The start of the switch of the South from Dem to Republican can be traced back as far as 1948, and probably didn’t complete until the early 2000’s. During that time there were many moves to and away from the Dems, but the overall trend line swung away from them.
I am not absolutely certain it is happening in Australia but I think it is, and I think at least some of it is being hidden by demographic shifts. Certainly, Labor holding some of the inner city seats they once held when peopled by battlers and still holding then when falling down dog boxes go for upwards of a million is an indication of the realignment.
I don’t expect it to happen in NSW, unless there is a big shift to someone like Mark Latham (really it is Lathan not the ONP people would vote for) is Western Sydney, and certainly not in Parramatta.
@ Mostly Labor voter, i think you bring some great points. Especially correct about the transformation of the Southern United States. A couple of just my thoughts
1. I feel some of the decline in Labor vote in areas like Lithgow/La Trobe valley can be attributed to de-industrialization/ less unionisation. Fewer people working in electricity industry. Rather than those same people voting differently.
2. The increase in Liberal vote in areas with a lot of tradies such as Hughes, Parts of Lindsay etc in my view has a lot to do with the tradies now being generally self-employed and hence no longer unionized. This also suggests the expansion of the middle class for example Hughes is very high in terms of median income
3. I feel that the Covid backlash in parts of Melbourne is less likely to be sustained if realignment does happen it will take sometime so we can see the swing back as you said before full realignment may occur. I cite example of CFA issue, Franklin Dam, Sky Rail, Scoresby Tollway which sometimes led to a huge swing at one or two elections but no long term change.
4. One point of difference in Australia compared to jurisdictions where there is FPTP is there is a greater spectrum of politics as there is less risk of the spoiler effect. I feel Australia is moving towards fragmentation of politics rather than polarization which appears to be the case in the US. For example the affluent can vote Teal instead of Labor/Greens if they felt their party has left them. Also socially conservative working class voters may cast vote for ONP or a Christian party instead of Libs. i agree this will affect TPP though. If a Teal ran in Higgins in think Labor PV will be around 21% for example. Labor PV vote collapsed in Hawthorn when a Teal ran.
5. I agree that there will always be a section of the affluent who will vote for most material issues such as climate change, refugees or West Papua and the working class who will vote right due to Nationalism etc for example the BNP in the UK always does well in deprived areas of the UK.
I don’t necessarily disagree, but a lot of people overseas think the division is pretty simple. Degree or higher vs diploma or lower. Greens voters for instance are almost all uni grads who would once have automatically gone to the Libs, and most of the movement the other way is from the skilled manual laborer’s, e.g. the tradies as you mentioned above.
I also think that that fragmentation will end up resolving itself around 2 new groupings, whether or not that is one party is an interesting discussion.
Near 20% swings in almost all the booths here. Goes to show how much of a personal vote Geoff Lee had.
The new booth map looks a lot more natural for this electorate. Harris Park of all places being won by a Liberal 4 years ago feels so strange. Now that booth has 70%.
70% Labor*