Leppington – NSW 2023

ALP 1.5%

Incumbent MP
No incumbent MP.

Geography
South-western Sydney. Leppington covers parts of the Liverpool, Campbelltown and Camden council areas, including the suburbs of Leppington, Austral, Carnes Hill, Catherine Field, Eagle Vale, Eschol Park, Horningsea Park, Hoxton Park, Kearns, Kemps Creek, Middleton Grange, Prestons, Raby, Rossmore, Varroville and West Hoxton.

Redistribution
Leppington is a new seat, taking in parts of six electorates. Leppington took in Rossmore, Catherine Field and Leppington from Camden; Denham Court, Eschol Park, Kearns, Raby and Varroville from Macquarie Fields; Eagle Vale from Campbelltown; Prestons from Holsworthy; Carnes Hill, Horningsea Park, Hoxton Park and West Hoxton from Liverpool; and Cecil Park, Kemps Creek and Middleton Grange from Mulgoa. 28% of the seat’s population comes from Liverpool, with 22% coming from Macquarie Fields. Just 8% come from Campbelltown.

History
Leppington is a new electorate, taking in parts of a number of other electorates. About half of the seat comes from Liverpool and Macquarie Fields, both of which have always been held by Labor. Some of the seat also came from Campbelltown, which had been won by Labor at all but two elections over a half century.

The remainder of the seat comes from Mulgoa, Holsworthy and Camden which have a longer history of switching back and forth.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Leppington is a very marginal seat. It’s worth noting that large parts of the seat are subject to extensive housing development which will likely change the make-up of the electorate and make 2019 results less useful for predicting future trends.

2019 result

PartyRedist
Labor 41.7
Liberal 40.1
Independents4.5
Greens 4.4
One Nation3.3
Keep Sydney Open2.6
Conservatives1.0
Animal Justice0.9
Sustainable Australia0.8
Christian Democrats0.3
Liberal Democrats0.2

2019 two-party-preferred result

PartyRedist
Labor 51.5
Liberal 48.5

Booth breakdown

Booths in Leppington have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and west. The north-east covers the tight cluster of urban booths in the Liverpool council area, the south-east covers the cluster of urban booths in Campbelltown, while “west” covers the more rural areas yet to be developed.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two of the three areas, with 52.9% in the north-east and 64.5% in the south-east, while the Liberal Party polled 66.7% in the west.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East52.913,64032.0
West33.36,98516.4
South-East64.56,44915.2
Pre-poll53.77,66418.0
Other votes52.57,82818.4

Election results in Leppington at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.

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9 COMMENTS

  1. This will be a fascinating study into a new seat and could have all the makings of a genuine swing Seat. However, I do feel that the margin on this seat is inflated in favour of Labour, off the back of the 3 booths that moved over from Campbelltown (All centered around Raby). On paper, those booths should swing back to the Coalition.

    This seat will be won or lost around Carnes Hill and Austral, where there has been a lot of development. I’ve played a lot of cricket at Greenway Park (across the road from Carnes Hill) and I’ve seen the continual development of McMansions around the ground.

    While I think the margin is inflated in favour of Labor, this should be a genuinely close seat either way and could become a barometer for which way the election will fall

  2. Agree Hawkeye, a lot of the new developments are quite aspirational. I do see this seat as a key bellwether. A rapidly growing area where services delivery is key. I predict both parties would campaign extensively here.

  3. Agree with you Ben, Raby is considered as one of the more established suburbs, and the map shows most of those areas are more Labor leaning compared to the new development areas like Oran Park.

  4. Big ONP votes in the previous state election especially in the Western booths you’ve identified. Similar ONP first-preference % to some of the South-Western fringes of Greater Brisbane – I’m thinking places like Logan and Ispwich. You could consider this part of NSW “Latham country”. Some of these booths sit within Latham’s former Federal division of Werriwa which had a combined first-preference ONP/UAP/LDP total in 2022 of more than 22%. I would mention that LDP did have a favourable ballot position which probably caught a lot of punters who thought they were just voting for the Liberal Party.

    Neighbouring Macarthur which also encompasses part of this division, had a combined 15.9% ONP/UAP/LDP vote in 2022.

    Preference flows from UAP and ONP, assuming they’re intending to put up a strong showing at this state election, will likely decide who captures this marginal seat. We know that from Queensland state elections that votes from ONP don’t necessarily flow straight to the Liberal party, especially in aspirational divisions like these on the suburban fringes. To get a clue on how these preferences will flow: in QLD 2020, ONP’s overall preference flow split two-thirds to LNP and one-third to ALP. The ONP -> LNP preference flow was strong in the most affluent & urban divisions and weaker generally in lower socio-economic & outer-suburban areas.

  5. This seat (based on modern day boundaries) has undergone a demographic shift more than most others. It has a fast growing population, lots of developments, a huge mortgage belt and lots of young families. I’m talking about Middleton Grange, West Hoxton, Austral and Leppington. The Liberal vote in the west (e.g. Austral and Leppington) are a bit overinflated because of the said demographic changes and they are no longer semi-rural and the median age is lower. One of most locked down LGAs is here (Liverpool) but the anger from lockdowns and the pandemic will most likely subside over time.

    It will be tricky to predict the outcome and since there’s no incumbent, both parties will fight for this seat.

  6. Strangely shaped seat the way it surrounds but does not include Edmondson Park. I think that was done to split the high growth areas between different seats.

  7. @David Walsh

    Yes, it’s because of this silly rule that districts must be within 10% on current enrolment and should be within 10% on projected enrolment. Exchanging Edmondson Park and Bardia for the Raby area would’ve put both Leppington and Macquarie Fields very close to a quota on projected enrolment, but because of population growth, Leppington would’ve been under 10% below the current quota. Very unfortunate.

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