LIB 23.0%
Incumbent MP
Ray Williams, member for Castle Hill since 2015. Previously member for Hawkesbury 2007-2015.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
North-western Sydney. Kellyville covers south-western parts of the Hills council area, including the suburbs of Beaumount Hills, Bella Vista, Kellyville, North Kellyville, Norwest and part of Rouse Hill.
Redistribution
Kellyville primarily replaces the former seat of Castle Hill, while also taking in a substantial part of the former seat of Baulkham Hills (which was primarily replaced by a new seat of Castle Hill). A majority of voters in the new seat of Kellyville were previously in Castle Hill, and a majority of voters in the former seat of Castle Hill have been moved into Kellyville.
Kellyville has taken in the suburbs of Norwest and Bella Vista from Baulkham Hills and the suburbs of Beaumont Hills, North Kellyville and part of Rouse Hill from Castle Hill, while the suburb of Kellyville was previously split between the two seats.
History
The seat of Kellyville is primarily a replacement for the former seat of Castle Hill, which was created in 2007, replacing the former seat of The Hills. The Hills had existed since 1962, and had always been held by Liberal MPs.
The Hills was first won in 1962 by Max Ruddock, a former president of Hornsby Shire. He served as a minister in the Coalition state government from 1975 to 1976. Shortly after the government lost power in 1976, Ruddock announced his retirement, and died six days later. His son Phillip was elected to the House of Representatives in 1973 and still serves there today.
The 1976 by-election was won by Fred Caterson. He held the seat until he resigned from Parliament in 1990.
Another by-election in 1990 was won by former car dealer Tony Packard. He was re-elected in 1991, but resigned in 1993 after being convicted of installing listening devices illegally when he worked as a car dealer.
The 1993 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Michael Richardson. He held The Hills until 2007, when he won election to the renamed seat of Castle Hill.
In 2011, Richardson lost preselection to Dominic Perrottet, who was elected.
Perrottet swapped seats in 2015 with Hawkesbury MP Ray Williams. Williams had represented Hawkesbury since 2007, and won Castle Hill in 2015. Williams was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Kellyville is a very safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ray Williams | Liberal | 36,047 | 68.6 | -2.4 | 66.3 |
| David Ager | Labor | 10,455 | 19.9 | +3.9 | 21.6 |
| David Field | Greens | 4,116 | 7.8 | +0.9 | 6.7 |
| Herman Kuipers | Sustainable Australia | 1,953 | 3.7 | +3.7 | 3.1 |
| Others | 2.3 | ||||
| Informal | 1,354 | 2.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ray Williams | Liberal | 37,043 | 74.7 | -4.7 | 73.0 |
| David Ager | Labor | 12,561 | 25.3 | +4.7 | 27.0 |
Booths in Kellyville have been split into three parts: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 70.5% in the south to 75.5% in the north.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 74.1 | 12,396 | 26.9 |
| North | 75.5 | 10,162 | 22.0 |
| South | 70.5 | 8,545 | 18.5 |
| Other votes | 69.7 | 9,453 | 20.5 |
| Pre-poll | 75.0 | 5,583 | 12.1 |
Election results in Riverstone at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Looks like we will have a pre-selection battle between Ray Williams and David Elliott. The only alternative option is for one of the two to shift into Riverstone, taking over from Kevin Connelly
Hawkeye, I believe you mentioned Ray Williams’ home is around Rouse Hill. If that is the case, it may be suitable for him to transfer to Riverstone, as that district does include areas around Kellyville. The only disadvantage is moving to a marginal seat, which he may not be keen on.
I’m pretty sure that is correct. It would make more sense for Ray to move to Riverstone but my gut feel is that it may not happen.
The other discussion for Riverstone was to be Yvonne Keane but she has pulled out (along with a tilt at the LC), as Perrottet has established a Selections Committee made up of factional heads.
Would be amusing to see Williams’ career come full circle given that his first electoral outing was in Riverstone in 2003. Despite a high visibility campaign, it only gained him a 1.1% swing as he was on the receiving end of a 16% whacking from Aquilina. Granted, the electoral demographics have shifted considerably but it will be interesting to see how his seat-hopping would go over with the voters
To be fair to Ray, this is what he gets for being based around Rouse Hill, which has been, at one point or another (or sections), in Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills, Riverstone and in Hawkesbury. It is just a difficult suburb to place.
Having said that, Ray is part of the old guard that has been around in Council and State Parliament for years.
Woah woah woah so who will be contesting Castle Hill?!
@Yoh An @Hawkeye
Williams has a much, much stronger claim to Kellyville district than Elliott. Williams was a maintenance manager for Hillsbus and led protests on Windsor Road calling for it to upgraded, he formerly represented the area on the council, and was President of the Kellyville Rouse Hill Progress Association. Kellyville district pretty much perfectly unites Williams base of support, better than Hawkesbury or Castle Hill ever did. It would be far more justified for Elliott to transfer to Castle Hill than for Williams to transfer to Riverstone. Also worth mentioning that Elliott was a director of the Castle Hill RSL Club!
In terms of what would make for ideal boundaries, Rouse Hill is not a hard suburb to place, rather, it has been misplaced until the last redistribution. It belongs squarely with other suburbs along the corridor from Bella Vista to Box Hill. It has very little community of interest with the Hawkesbury or with the semi-rural suburbs east of Cattai Creek.
(I should also note that when you say “Rouse Hill”, most locals wouldn’t even think of the area within Blacktown LGA because until recently it has been virtually unpopulated.)
A related piece of trivia: There are two state MPs who live in Rouse Hill. The other is Mark Taylor, the Member for Seven/Winston Hills.
I think you will find that the big issue for Elliott is the Branches that are left within Castle Hill. Those branches are very pro-Perrottet and wouldn’t want to support Elliott. But this has become a complete cluster for pre-selections
Is Elliott to retire?
David Elliot ran for the Liberals’ deputy leadership position in early August 2022. Does this suggest he had long-term plans in politics?
Elliot clearly wants to be premier but he never will be. He is better off running for a federal seat to help the Liberals in western Sydney and might even get a ministerial post in a future coalition government.
The only chance that Elliott has for a federal seat would be Greenway. Alex Hawke has the protection racket running on Mitchell so the opportunity for Elliott to move to the federal sphere will have to come via a marginal seat.
Confirmation that David Elliott is retiring. Clear run now for Ray Williams for Kellyville and Noel McCoy for Castle Hill
A sensible outcome.
Hawkeye and Nicholas, I wonder if the reason for David Elliott’s retirement is due to his frustration with so called ‘stalling/disruption’ tactics engaged by RTBU (transport union).
Eliotts retirement would be more affected by the internal dynamics of the liberal party Elliot like Hawke is part of the Centre right. Greenway isn’t going to shift parties any time soon nor is the federal Parramatta. Riverstone I think will be line ball this election. Margin 6%
Yes you probably are right Mick as I read in other sources that due to factional ‘deals’ or infighting Elliott didn’t have much of a chance winning preselection for the altered Castle Hill district.
@Mick Quinlivan
What is Williams’ factional alignment?
There will be a redistribution ahead of the next federal election (unless an election is called within the next year). This will be triggered in February (2023) by the seven year rule. Having investigated some possibilities myself, I would say there is a fairly high chance that one of Greenway or Parramatta (or both) will become significantly more competitive. The only scenario I see that will avert this is if Mitchell crosses (Old) Windsor Road. Enrolment imbalances are so severe across Sydney that there will need to be radical changes at the next redistribution.
Can confirm that Ray Williams is a Hawke Supporter, like Elliott.
As I have mentioned in other threads, Elliott wanted to swap seats with Ray but that got denied because Perrottet wants Noel McCoy in Castle Hill. Elliott got offered Riverstone and knocked it back, opting to retire instead.
@Hawkeye_au
What is McCoy’s relationship with Perrottet? Google and his LinkedIn don’t seem to show he is someone very high up in the Liberal Party. Why the urge to have him preselected?
From what I can see as an outsider, factionalism. Perrottet’s brother was apparently one of the big backers of McCoy.
DCook is 100% correct. Noel McCoy is from the HR of the Liberal Party and was very good friends with Charlie Perrottet, brother of Dom. He is also good friends with Nick Berman, who married into the Perrottet Family and is former Mayor of Hornsby Council.
Point out that Riverstone sits on about a 6% margin. This is very borderline in the current climate
I see. Doesn’t sound very meritocratic.
I believe Ray Williams has now been endorsed for Kellyville.
This seat will be a lay-down.
Certain liberal hold
Both Ray Williams and David Elliott have been great MPs , If I have my way, I will get rid of the NSW treasurer Mr Matt Keane who appears to be in the wrong party! Of course that will never happen as his faction has the numbers! Hopefully not after this election
Kean.