East Hills – NSW 2023

LIB 0.1%

Incumbent MP
Wendy Lindsay, since 2019.

Geography
Southwestern Sydney. East Hills covers south-western parts of the City of Canterbury-Bankstown, areas on the north and east shore of the Georges River. The seat covers the suburbs of Panania, Revesby, Padstow, Milperra, Condell Park and parts of Bass Hill and Yagoona.

Redistribution
East Hills expanded slightly on the northern edge, taking in more of Bass Hill and Yagoona from Bankstown. This change reduced the Liberal margin from 0.5% to 0.1%.

History
The electoral district of East Hills was first created at the 1953 election. The seat was held by Labor continuously from 1953 to 2011, with only four people holding the seat during this period.

The seat was first won in 1953 by Arthur Williams. He had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1940, first holding the marginal seat of Ryde until 1941, then holding the seat of Georges River from 1941 to 1953. He held East Hills until his retirement in 1956.

Joe Kelly won East Hills for the ALP in 1956. He held the seat until 1973. He was succeeded by Pat Rogan, who held the seat until 1999.

Alan Ashton won East Hills in 1999, and was re-elected in 2003 and 2007.

In 2011, Ashton was narrowly defeated by Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes.

There was a large swing to Labor in New South Wales in 2015, but Brookes gained a tiny swing to hold on despite his slim margin.

Brookes resigned from the Liberal Party in 2016 after his campaign manager was charged with electoral offences, but rejoined the party in 2017.

Brookes retired in 2019, and Liberal candidate Wendy Lindsay narrowly retained the seat.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
East Hills is a very marginal seat, but this was also the case at the 2015 and 2019 elections, yet the seat barely moved. Lindsay should benefit from incumbency, but this remains a crucial seat for Labor to win.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Wendy Lindsay Liberal 19,96341.9-2.341.6
Cameron Murphy Labor 19,15240.2-1.840.7
Suzan Virago Greens 2,2984.8-1.84.9
Owen ButtChristian Democrats2,1594.5-0.34.3
Lisa MaddockKeep Sydney Open1,7733.7+3.73.5
Chris BroganIndependent1,3462.8+2.82.7
Heather BarnesAnimal Justice9322.0+2.01.9
Others0.4
Informal2,2924.6

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Wendy Lindsay Liberal 21,64650.5+0.150.1
Cameron Murphy Labor 21,21749.5-0.149.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in East Hills have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in southern parts of the seat, with 51.7% in the south-east and 55.3% in the south-west.

Labor won 55.8% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-East51.713,62827.2
South-West55.39,21118.4
North44.28,35016.7
Pre-poll48.611,06922.1
Other votes49.47,82415.6

Election results in East Hills at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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4 COMMENTS

  1. Lindsay has little chance. Even if this remains marginal. On federal figures this would be a marginal Labor seat. She could run for the seat of Banks if Coleman retires at the next election.

    The demographics are not favourable to Labor here but if the swing is on, it’s on. And I see no prospect of the Libs getting a 4th term because when was the last time they had 16 years in power? The election will be close, but remember when the past 2 coalition governments were defeated it was incredibly narrow (1976 and 1995) history will repeat itself and I see a narrow Labor win possibly falling 1 or 2 seats short of a majority.

    This may be the most marginal, but I see Labor having bigger margins in Winston Hills and possibly Parramatta after the election.

  2. Despite all the unfavourable redistributions over the last 12 years, the Coalition has managed to hold onto this seat since Glenn Brookes won it in 2011.

    Wendy Lindsay has worked this seat incredibly hard, especially targeting along the East Hills Train Line, which is where the seat will be won or lost.

    What will be fascinating to watch will be how the KSO vote breaks, given that they won’t be running this time around.

    This will remain within a percent either way but I would rather be in the Coalition position, as Ben said in his preview, benefiting from incumbency.

  3. Agree Hawkeye, also the down ballot effect where the NSW Coalition will have some benefit with federal Labor in power. I think the southernmost suburbs (Milperra and East Hills) are now more rigid and fairly solid Liberal areas instead of being swingy so that would also favour Wendy Lindsay to hang on, just like David Coleman did federally as I believe he only got a swing <3% against him in Banks.

  4. Agree with Hawkeye/Yoh Ann, at the last two state elections it was often said East Hills will be the seat to fall but it ended up swinging to the Libs against the state trend. The last time this occurred even though the Libs did not have a sitting MP. At the recent Federal election, the part of Banks in Bankstown LGA swung to the Libs even as it lost government. On Federal figures the Libs won all booths south of Milperra/Canterbury Road. Also Libs can do better in the northern parts which are working class and in the seat of Blaxland even if it does not win the booths it can keep Labor’s margin low by campaigning there which they do not do at a Federal level.

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