ALP 16.3%
Incumbent MP
Greg Warren, since 2015.
Geography
South-western Sydney. Campbelltown includes southern parts of the City of Campbelltown as well as a small part of Wollondilly Shire, including Airds, Ambarvale, Appin, Blairmount, Blair Athol, Bradbury, Claymore, Glen Alpine, Leumeah, Menangle Park, Rosemeadow, Ruse, Woodbine, and Campbelltown itself.
Redistribution
Campbelltown gained Appin from Wollondilly, gained the remainder of Leumeah from Macquarie Fields, and lost Eagle Vale to Leppington. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 17.0% to 16.3%.
History
The electoral district of Campbelltown has existed since 1968. It was first won by the Liberal Party in 1968, and was won again by the Liberal Party in 2011, but was held by Labor continuously for fourty years from 1971 to 2011.
The seat was won by Liverpool councillor and Liberal candidate Max Dunbier in 1968. In 1971, he lost to the ALP’s Cliff Mallam. He had previously held the seat of Dulwich Hill from 1954 until its abolition in 1968. After a failed attempt at entering federal politics in 1969, he won Campbelltown in 1971 and held it until his retirement in 1981.
Campbelltown was won in 1981 by the ALP’s Michael Knight. He was appointed Minister for the Olympics when Labor won power in 1995. After a successful Olympics, Knight retired in 2001.
The 2001 by-election was won by the ALP’s Graham West, a former Knight advisor who was elected with only token opposition. He was appointed as a minister after the 2007 election. He remained a minister until June 2010, when he announced his impending retirement at the 2011 election.
At the 2011 election, Liberal candidate Bryan Doyle won Campbelltown with a 21.8% swing. Doyle lost in 2015 to Labor candidate Greg Warren. Warren was re-elected in 2019.
Assessment
Campbelltown is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Greg Warren | Labor | 24,476 | 53.8 | +3.5 | 52.1 |
| Riley Munro | Liberal | 12,069 | 26.5 | -11.4 | 26.6 |
| Jayden Rivera | Greens | 2,339 | 5.1 | -0.4 | 5.1 |
| James Gent | Christian Democrats | 2,001 | 4.4 | +0.8 | 4.0 |
| Matthew Stellino | Animal Justice | 1,822 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 3.8 |
| Martin O’Sullivan | Keep Sydney Open | 1,723 | 3.8 | +3.8 | 3.6 |
| Michael Clark | Sustainable Australia | 1,096 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.2 |
| Others | 2.5 | ||||
| Informal | 2,411 | 5.0 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Greg Warren | Labor | 27,026 | 67.0 | +9.7 | 66.3 |
| Riley Munro | Liberal | 13,305 | 33.0 | -9.7 | 33.7 |
Booths in Campbelltown have been split into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63.6% in the south to 71.5% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 63.6 | 14,099 | 30.4 |
| Central | 68.7 | 11,034 | 23.8 |
| North | 71.5 | 6,369 | 13.7 |
| Pre-poll | 64.1 | 8,391 | 18.1 |
| Other votes | 65.8 | 6,439 | 13.9 |
Election results in Campbelltown at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
This seat is usually not one to watch so probably why i am the first one to post. Some interesting results. In Tharwal Medical Centre booth in Airds (one of the poorest places in Urban Australia) Labor got 90.2 of the TPP and a swing to them. Libs only got 4.7% of the Primary vote below that of the Greens, LDP and One Nation. In Claymore, Labor got 88.5% of the TPP and a small swing to them. Both suburbs have a SEIFA score of 1 and are public housing estates. Here, Labor kept its base unlike Meadow Heights in Melbourne where Lock downs artificially affected the result.
@Nimalan is the airds north booth the strongest labor tpp vote in greater sydney? a lakemba booth had a 92% tpp for labor but there were only 200 votes or so cast.
@ Louis, it seems like it. I am still looking to find other booths to see if it exceeds the Wiley Park booth close to Lakemba also had 91% TPP for Labor but that is a joint booth. I think the Airds North booth would have the lowest primary vote for the Libs in Greater Sydney and maybe even the state excluding some indigenous communities in the Far West. In terms of best Liberal booths in Greater Sydney it would be in the semi-rural areas such as Horsley Park, Orchard Hills etc. I am thinking some booths where Teals ran may still end up being very strong on Lib/ALP contest such as Beauty Point, Balmoral (Queenswood School) and St Michaels Vauclause.
Hard to believe that this seat was Liberal Held back in 2011. There are very large pockets here that is Deep-red territory.
Appin is a middle class area added to the seat… 15% swing
@Ninalam booths from auburn north are yet to be counted and labor has >70% of the primary vote so it’ll be interesting to see the tpp figures there. I also agree that elite areas on the north shore/eastern suburbs held up well for the liberals. The vaucluse booth used to have >90% tpp to the liberals versus labor unsurprisingly and the teals didn’t really make a large dent to this margin.
@ Louis, cool i will keep an eye out on the Auburn North booth. Do you know if notional Lib/ALP margin for those elite areas where teals ran both seats and booth level have been released.