LIB 20.1%
Incumbent MP
Kevin Conolly, since 2011.
Geography
North-western Sydney. Riverstone includes northern parts of the City of Blacktown, including Glenwood, Quakers Hill, Riverstone and Stanhope Gardens.
Redistribution
Riverstone contracted, losing Bligh Park, Mulgrave and Windsor to Hawkesbury, losing Shanes Park to Londonderry and losing Dean Park to Mount Druitt. These changes had a minimal impact on the seat’s margin.
History
Riverstone was first created for the 1981 election. It has always been won by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1981 by Tony Johnson, who had served as Member for Mount Druitt since 1973. Johnson retired in 1983, triggering a by-election.
The 1983 by-election was won by Richard Amery. He held the seat until 1991. In 1991, the redistribution saw the restoration of the seat of Mount Druitt, covering areas previously covered by Riverstone. Amery moved to Mount Druitt, which he has held ever since. He served as a minister in the state Labor government from 1995 to 2003.
Riverstone was won in 1991 by John Aquilina, who had served as Member for Blacktown since 1981. He served as a minister in Labor governments from 1986 to 1988 and again from 1995 to 2003. In 2003 he left the ministry and was elected Speaker. He served as Speaker until the 2007 election, and then sat on the backbench until his retirement in 2011.
At the 2011 election, Riverstone was won by Liberal candidate Kevin Conolly with a 30% swing.
Candidates
- Allan Green (Christian Democratic Party)
- Rob Vail (Greens)
- Ian Morrison (Labor)
- Kevin Conolly (Liberal)
- Karen Cacciotti (No Land Tax)
Assessment
Riverstone was recently held by Labor, but it will be hard for them to overturn the seat’s 20% margin.
2011 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Conolly | Liberal | 29,971 | 58.1 | +22.9 | 58.4 |
| Michael Vassili | Labor | 12,013 | 23.3 | -30.4 | 23.6 |
| Jess Harwood | Greens | 2,943 | 5.7 | +1.4 | 5.4 |
| Allan Green | Christian Democrats | 2,178 | 4.2 | +4.2 | 4.7 |
| Jason Cornelius | Family First | 1,701 | 3.3 | +3.3 | 2.9 |
| Rosarie Bonham | Independent | 1,445 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.8 |
| Geno Belcastro | Independent | 791 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.6 |
| Tony Pettitt | Australia First | 585 | 1.1 | -2.5 | 0.7 |
2011 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Conolly | Liberal | 31,888 | 70.2 | +30.2 | 70.1 |
| Michael Vassili | Labor | 13,555 | 29.8 | -30.2 | 29.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Riverstone have been split into three parts: east, north and south.
The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 66% in the south to 72% in the east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | GRN % | CDP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 72.1 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 14,009 | 35.8 |
| South | 66.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 11,329 | 29.0 |
| North | 71.2 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5,210 | 13.3 |
| Other votes | 71.0 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 8,565 | 21.9 |
This is the fastest growing electorate, and considering the likely demographic of people moving in (i.e. young families) I’m expecting a very strong swing in favour of Labor.
Wouldn’t young families be more of the swing voter style of demographic than Labor voting? Could be wrong, but I dunno if Riverstone growing rapidly will be of a huge help to Labor here.
the swing to liberals in the last election is due to the high income families moving into the area. Whether or not they are young families, they are high income and that is the difference. It would be nice to have a less conservative and move realistic alternative to vote for e.g. independent or greens.
Riverstone is ALP held on Federal election figures…. the Diaz family were the liberal party king makers…… bigggggggggggg swing possible
My prediction: The demographics in Riverstone have obviously changed, it was held by Labor with a 7.2% margin at the 1988 Liberal/National landslide, and by 7.5% in 1991. I’d go for a possible-likely Liberal hold here, but I expect a large swing to Labor.
There were pre-selection dramas here in Riverstone. Kevin Conolly was disendorsed, after falling out with Jess Diaz over his lack of support for a decision made by the then-ruling Liberal Blacktown Council. Bart Bassett made moves to be preselected for Riverstone, after the boundaries in Londonderry were redistributed more favourably for the Labor Party. Unfortunately, for him, ICAC put paid to those plans. The preselection dramas didn’t really make a lot of news, but may impact upon how seriously the local Liberal Party campaign for Conolly. I still think the Liberal Party will win this seat, based upon the infrastructure and obvious progress in the area; however, I do think that places such as Quakers Hill and Riverstone itself will swing very sharply towards Labor.
I note that former Blacktown Councillor and Liberal candidate Allan Green is running again in this seat for the Christian Democratic Party. Green lost his Blacktown Council seat in 2012 as an Independent, but has run for the Christian Democratic Party before. There will be a little personal vote for him, but will not make any impact upon anyone, other than his chances of being re-elected to Council next year.
My prediction: Lib retain with a swing of approx. 10% against them.
Federally Labor did well to win the equivalent seat, however this was the seat that James Diaz contested who gave that infamous interview where he couldn’t list the plan to turn back the boats, he was ridiculed for the rest of the campaign and went into hiding if I recall correctly.
Many of the young families moving into this area are coming from the Castle Hill area and tend to be Liberal voters, and as already mentioned tend to be higher income – the kind of demographic that will be difficult for Labor to reach out to. IMHO this seat would only be a Labor gain at a Labor landslide.
Public transport is a big issue in this electorate, particularly in the newly established suburbs in the eastern end such as Stanhope Gardens, Kellyville Ridge and the Ponds. The start of construction on the long awaited North West Rail Link would be going down well with the electorate.