Riverstone – NSW 2011

ALP 10.1%

Incumbent MP
John Aquilina, since 1991.

Geography
North-western Sydney. Riverstone includes parts of the City of Blacktown and the City of Hawkesbury, including Glenwood, Bligh Park, Windsor, Quakers Hill and Riverstone.

History
Riverstone was first created for the 1981 election. It has always been won by the ALP.

The seat was first won in 1981 by Tony Johnson, who had served as Member for Mount Druitt since 1973. Johnson retired in 1983, triggering a by-election.

The 1983 by-election was won by Richard Amery. He held the seat until 1991. In 1991, the redistribution saw the restoration of the seat of Mount Druitt, covering areas previously covered by Riverstone. Amery moved to Mount Druitt, which he has held ever since. He served as a minister in the state Labor government from 1995 to 2003.

Riverstone was won in 1991 by John Aquilina, who had served as Member for Blacktown since 1981. He served as a minister in Labor governments from 1986 to 1988 and again from 1995 to 2003. In 2003 he left the ministry and was elected Speaker. He served as Speaker until the 2007 election, and he has sat as a backbencher since then.

Candidates

Political situation
Riverstone’s 10% margin would be enough in most circumstances to protect the ALP, but in the current climate, this seat could be vulnerable to the Liberal Party.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
John Aquilina ALP 23,809 53.6 +0.8
Kevin Conolly LIB 15,589 35.1 +9.1
Sheryl Jarecki GRN 1,918 4.3 -0.3
Tony Pettitt IND 1,607 3.6 +3.6
Ronald Atkins AAFI 1,474 3.3 +1.1

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
John Aquilina ALP 24,925 60.1 -3.3
Kevin Conolly LIB 16,568 39.9 +3.3

Booth breakdown
The seat of Riverstone covers parts of two local government areas: Hawkesbury and Blacktown. All booths in Hawkesbury have been grouped together, and booths in Blacktown have been divided into “Glenwood”, “Quakers Hill” and “Riverstone”.

The ALP won large majorities in Glenwood and Quakers Hill in the south of the seat. In contrast, the ALP’s majority in Hawkesbury and Riverstone was very slim.

 

Polling booths in Riverstone at the 2007 state election. Hawkesbury in green, Riverstone in orange, Quakers Hill in red, Glenwood in blue.

 

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Glenwood 3.7 63.8 12,324 27.8
Quakers Hill 3.9 68.3 10,412 23.5
Hawkesbury 4.9 50.5 7,955 17.9
Riverstone 3.9 51.7 5,586 12.6
Other votes 5.6 58.7 8,120 18.3
Two-party-preferred votes in Riverstone at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Riverstone at the 2007 state election.

132 COMMENTS

  1. Hawkeye,
    People like Tony Abbott ,Ray Williams, and Nick Tyrell have been fantastic and have supported my fight with the over-development on Merriville Road for the past 2 years. “Wow, they’re Liberal.”

    Don’t you get it; all Geno and myself are saying is that we want good representation. We want someone who will fight important issues such as Schofield Station and over developments and many other pressing issues that impact to our electorate.

    So give it a rest and try and understand if you can, that our preferences went to the most capable candidate.

  2. Rosie – I don’t know you or Riverstone that well, however, I will make the general observation that you say that ‘you want someone who will fight important issues’ for your Riverstone electorate. Fair enough. I would have thought then, that the best person to ‘fight’ for those issues is from a Member of Parliament who is actually in the new Government (and that obviously will be a Liberal). Otherwise, to me, your argument doesn’t make sense. If the ALP wins this seat, I would strongly suggest to you that the funding levels that Riverstone receives will be quite low. It is simply the nature of politics.

    The beauty about this election is that you are going to have Liberal representatives for the first time in many Sydney electorates, which then makes them swinging seats. If I were O’Farrell, then I would be doing everything I could to make sure those constituents are satisfied in their newly elected Liberal representatives. To preference against the Liberals in this election therefore, is not terribly smart in my opinion if you want real change for Riverstone.

  3. Rosie

    I was just making a comment about your comment. I do not know you and have no intention to judge your honesty. Whenever Julia, Brown, Howard, Abbott, Keating, Carr, Keannelly etc talk about honesty, I laughs.

    When I hear the ALP saying Dai Le is a racist, I laughs

    When I hear Barry talk about his contract, I laughs

    When I hear Kristina talk about her value and honesty, I laughs

  4. To all the Rosie detractors

    I have know Rosie for a long time and let me say without bias or favour that you will not find a more determined person when it comes to fighting a cause she believes in.

    Rosie has entered the political arena purely because she thinks she can make a difference, no hidden agendas, no gain of any sort. If you people can’t grasp this concept, then you have indeed lost touch with real people, or you have an agenda yourself.

  5. Rosie, you still haven’t answer my bloody question!!! I don’t care about your reasoning behind the preferencing as they are well documented! What I care about is your slandering of Kevin Connolly for running for State Government when he is on council, when it can easily be seen that it occurs everywhere and it is nothing new. You can’t pick on one person and use it for your convenience unless you intend to become a person of principle and target every other person in parliament who does that. It’s not hard to understand! If you want to target Kevin Connolly by all means but make sure it is something that isn’t going to set a double standard!

    You know what? I give up! I wouldn’t be surprised if you start using the dreaded Chewbacca defense! “Look at the Toy Monkey!”

  6. Any strong campaigning from Vassili certainly went unnoticed here!

    Congratulations Kevin Connolly, you have finally achieved your dream of becoming an MLA.

  7. Time to eat some real humble pie, here. I expected this to be a much closer contest, but turned out to be pretty much the biggest flogging of the night. Congratulations to Kevin Conolly and the Liberal team for their outstanding result this evening. He justified the faith shown in him by David Clarke, and proved myself and a lot of experienced political observers wrong. Should also ensure that Nick Tyrrell, bar further intervention, will surely be the next Federal candidate for Greenway, as there’s no way Conolly will be a oncer, based on his majority.

    Commiserations to Michael Vassili, who did an exemplary job in the face of abandonment by Head Office. I sincerely hope that he, along with Prue Guillaume in Mulgoa, are able to forge careers in politics, despite the negative outcomes tonight.

    Noticed the rather shocking lack of support for Bonham and Belcastro in all booths tonight. I still think that Bonham could make it onto Blacktown Council with the issues she pursues, but it was pretty clear to me, that running at State level on those issues wasn’t going to be productive.

    Greens ran third here, which was a surprise. If I was Allan Green, I would be a little worried about his Council seat next year.

    Overall, an end of an era, as a Blacktown legend in John Aquilina bows out, to be replaced by the first ever Liberal to ever win Riverstone, in one of the most comprehensive wins in any form of politics I have seen in my lifetime.

  8. DLH

    Dito,

    The swing here is reflective of a good campaign by the Liberals. The voters were ready to punish and punish they did. Very similar mood on the booths here to every bi-election since Labor last won but higher determination to punish.

    The swing in this seat is more or less the same as that in Mulgoa which is a comparable seat. Comparable quality candidates as you correctly point out as well. Its greater than Blacktown which had the whole of the Labor war chest invested on it to save Robertson who was a poor choice for Blacktown despite the rubbish heap of spin which was churned out in this election. Mt Druitt would have been a better fit for him but they preferred Amery than Gibson in the remaining bunch.

    This seat was about an 8% starting margin as there has been an almost 9000 increase in voters from the 10.1% margin quoted as starting which was based on the old figures.

    The “Labor stinks” campaign was very effective and is typical of a government loses campaign.

    Nothing in that climate could have stopped a record swing. I suspect if a saint had been running providing miracles to each elector for Labor and Ivan Mallat had been the Liberal candidate the swing may only have slightly corrected as brand Labor is so bad in the state and this electorate. Aquilina would have been a defeated local member on even a swing better than the best in the state. Good members lost seats in record swings.

    Promising things and then not delivering on the North West Rail, Riverstone overpass and a range of other very badly communicated events such as Schofields station and a government which had fallen off the cliff was a very strong tsunami.

    Congratulations to Conolly for going around four times (I thinks its four) . Like David Bradbury it shows that persistence is its own reward.

    Congratulations to Vassili that poor bastard who is a quality person and candidate who should be given a medal for even agreeing to associate with Labor. Had he been running as the Liberal candidate even more who switched from Labor to Liberal as he has very wide appeal outside Labor.

    Independents and Greens did poorly here. There was a straight switch from Liberal to Labor and I will be interested to see the state trend. That is a major concern for Labor. It reflects the voters dissatisfaction with the Federal Carbon tax and the basket case minority Labor government and voters not risking that again. Labor would be finished at the Federal Level on these results which could easily reflect in seats like Greenway and Parramatta next time which is fast approaching.

    The test now is for Conolly to deliver. While we congratulate all of my previous concerns remain and are even stronger now. In a massive number of government members who are all now on massive margins a weak local member is a recipe for disaster.

    Next prediction. Audit by the Lib government. Statement “Oh the cupboard is bare”. Sorry cant deliver the North West rail anytime soon and those traffic jams will have to stay. Slash and burn services. Implement the expenditure shift from the west to the north to balance the ledgess of 16 years of Labor largess in the west and Riverstone. Innefective Labor opposition with a leader Robertson with baggage as part of what is worst of Labor. 12 years later angry voters. Where Conolly features in all of that time will tell but I remain a Conolly skeptic.

    May the force be with you Kevin !

  9. 2nd Biggest swing in the state, about twice the state average here! Conolly obviously did much better than Rosie and the other lefties let on.

    Despite labor party volunteers setting up Bonham and Belcastro’s material on the day, only got 4.5pc of the vote between them! Also, despite directing preferences to labor, the voters actually preferenced Conolly just as much, against the HTV

  10. Congratulations to Barry O’Farrell, however I will not congratulate Kevin Conolly. Not only will I not congratulate him, but I can go so far as to say that he is nothing more than a calculating ruthless politician who had nothing better to do yesterday then to pick on Independents out of fear and then pursue to finish them off!

    At every polling booth I attended I was verbally attacked by a number of Liberal volunteers. Not only did he/they try and intimidate me, they then submitted a complaint to the Electoral Commission to have all my corflutes removed by 9.30 am due to a printing error.

    However, Kevin got a taste of what a real fighter I am when we crossed paths at Stanhope Leisure Centre yesterday.

    So Kevin, remember what I told you “I hope you get elected because I am going to ride your back for the next 4 years for the people of the Riverstone Electorate.” I have the energy to keep you to your word. Do you?

    I’m sure many of you will think that I’m a sore loser, but the truth is I’m very happy with my 2.8% for a first time candidate.

  11. Rosie,
    I cannot bring myself to congratulate the BO’F. I’ve long distrusted his plans, particularly in regard to public transport, and I’ve resented the sheer refusal of the media to put any scrutiny on them, lest any legitimate criticism be twisted into a defence of Labor when Labor had to go. This lack of scrutiny puts the alleged sycophancy towards Gillard by the Canberra press gallery (as claimed by some right-wing ranters) to shame. I can only hope that the Upper House stops the B’OF from doing what he thinks is right but is truly wrong.

  12. Rosie,

    Your campaign material was set up by the Labor party, you preferenced the labor party and you then made a fool of yourself ranting and raving calling Kevin a bully becasue he called you a labor stooge.

    I was a liberal volunteer but trust me, once you left everyones feedback of you was negative, CDP, greens and Pettit volunteers and the general public all used words like “hysterical”, “Fruitloop” and “freak” in regards to your emotional outburst.

    You verbally attacked a man that you hardly know and you say others were trying to intimidate you.

    Can’t handle the heat? GET OUT OF THE KITCHEN.

    Im not sure how you hoodwinked 2.8pc of the electorate Rosie.

  13. Rosie,

    You seem terribly Naive. If your corflutes weren’t authorised properly then Liberals had every right to object, this is just politics dear. The electoral commision wouldn’t pull them down unless you didn’t follow the electoral act, should there be special rules for you?

    You also don’t seem to have any manners, you dont congratulate someone because you think they should’ve beat you, you congratulate them because they did anyway. Kevin was given overwhelming approval and mandate in Riverstone and this is one of the highest honours in our state, he has a huge job to do and by all means make sure he does it, but don’t attack people personally (especially after you complain they did it to you).

    You are a sore loser, pick yourself up, dust yourself off and learn to work with people not against them if you want results.

  14. Amy/Andrew,

    Yes, I do know Kevin Conolly. Yes, I did rant and rave. And yes, it was an error on the printer’s part. However, my family did not deserve to be verbally attacked on polling booths by the Liberal volunteers, so much so that I will be lodging a formal complaint with the Electoral Commission.

    I don’t think that my 82 year old mother-in-law deserved to be verbally attacked by Kevin’s people. And, furthermore my family supported me out of love.

    Its people like you that make accusation about other people and have no idea what the issue is.

    Kevin was informed on all activities relating to my campaign on the over-development once he had introduced himself to me over a year ago. All I got from him was 5 emails, 1 attendance to a community meeting and “good work Rosie, let me know if you need any help,”

    Any/Andrew I will not congratulate anyone who would stoop so low to allow his people to treat old ladies with such disrespect. It only shows what sort of person he is. And, I don’t care what you or anyone else thinks of me, I will never be sorry for my behaviour, because nobody gets away with treating my family like dirt.
    End of story!

  15. End of story this: despite all of the allegations against him, he still managed to record one of the biggest swings in this general election. Obviously, he did something fair and right within this campaign to record that kind of swing.

  16. So basically Rosie, your complaining because “they started it!”

    You allege that liberal volunteers verbally abused your family, and you reacted by verbally abusing people yourself.

    And your on here whinging. Get a grip you loser.

  17. Rosie you got a fantastic result as candidate of no experience in a difficult election. You got almost half the result of the Greens which must make you pleased.

    Don’t dwell on the negative. Politics is a hard game. One thing Kevin Conolly should be praised for is sticking around as I am sure in previous campaigns he has been on the back end of some hard abuse and foul play as well when the tide was against him.

    I am not a Conolly fan. I would have liked a Labor win in this seat but democracy saw our seat change hands and he got an overwhelming majority which would be hard to see him displace for at least two terms.

    There is a matter before Parrmatta Court where a Liberal booth worker is alleged to have threatened to stab a Labor boothworker at Granville. In this electorate punches were thrown and Liberals were observed harassing and chasing Vassili with a Camera at one booth and another Liberal was taking a video of another Labor booth worker apparently objecting to the assistance which they gave the Greens in the seat. That would hardly be surprising as one of five seats with Greens preferences allocated and Labor desperate to hang on I wouldn’t doubt that Labor were keen to help as much as they could, that’s politics.

    On most booths throughout NSW however Liberal, Labor, Greens and Independents had he good manners to respect each other. If a Liberal abused your workers shame on them. If a booth worker threatened to stab another at Granville shame on them. But we need to move on.

    “Winners are Grinners and Losers can please themselves”

    You were a winner of sorts and I think we all need to sit back and let the new member whoever he is have the benefit of the doubt to prove himself. As Brogden said today in the Herald, now he and the rest of them have to prove themselves and in four years you can have another round.

    Rosie, toughen up and get your authorisations right next time around in Local Government and with a bit of luck we will get some good people into Council who don’t just sling Labor and Liberal taunts at each other but who actually care.

    As for your preferences, good on you that’s your democratic right. Don’t let the “stooge” tag hurt you. Family First exercised theirs in the opposite manner to run preferences in the same way to Liberal. Clearly, if the Liberals were looking at ripping your signs down on polling day they thought it might be close too. If they were gathering evidence of Labor assisting Greens then in the same way even they didn’t predict such a landslide.

    Wander what would have happened in this seat with John Aquilina. I think perhaps there may have been a 5% correction but the seat would have gone by a huge amount as people were clearly angry here.

  18. Rosie,

    After the good conversation that we had at Parklea Public School, I was somewhat surprised and disappointed that you are suggesting on an open forum that you were attacked at every polling booth you attended.

    I was the one that you were talking to for about 20 minutes about local issues, and where you had recently begun fellowshipping. I agreed with nearly everything that you said, although I was clearly supporting the vision for a north-west rail link.

    While I can’t account for every booth, I beg to differ, with respect, to your comment “At every polling booth I attended I was verbally attacked by a number of Liberal volunteers.”

    I would kindly request you graciously withdraw your statement in this regard.

    I will also say that I would be very disappointed if anyone of your mother-in-law’s age was subject to abuse. Our elderly need to be treated with the respect they deserve.

    Yours sincerely,

    Phil

  19. Brian,
    I am so sorry that I have offended you and anyone else who had not participated in the verbal attack on my family. I will withdraw me statement in regards to that matter.

    As far as my mother-in-law is concerned the person has been contacted today and has also apologised for the way he spoke to her.

    Regards
    Rosie

  20. Thanks Rosie,

    Apology accepted. Now we all have a job to do, regardless of politics.

    Let’s make Riverstone great.
    Let’s push for the North West Railway.
    Let’s get the Richmond line duplicated.
    Let’s see a high school built at Stanhope Gardens.
    I’d love to see a Tresillian Centre built.
    I’d love to see Barry O’Farrell and Kevin come and visit Pat at Parklea Gardens. She requested it on election day. She deserves it. Our elderly deserve better care and that includes restoration of their bus service.

    But most importantly, let’s work together. Politics ended at 6pm on election night. Policy starts now. Yes I wore a blue shirt on Saturday, but now is not the time to get proud, complacent, or critical of someone else who had a go. Now is the time regardless of who you voted for to pull together, with some understanding and patience, and make a memorable difference in our area.

    All the best

    Phil

  21. The point im making is that even if liberals abused her (which I am quite confident did not happen), she cannot complain because she admits that she abused liberals as well.

    So why is it that she is complaining? She thinks she is so special noone can say anything to her but she can say and do whatever she wants

  22. The whole point is, this is not a football game “my team will smash yours” type of attitude.
    It’s about electing a Government that you think will do the best job, at a local, State or Federal level. I have seen first hand some of the underhanded tactics Politicians and their cronies will go to (this includes volunteers) to make sure their egos are fed (wiinning first, people second). And they ask you to trust them.
    The only trustworthy politician I have ever come across would be Rosie.
    Trying to discredit someone through personal attacks is the lowest of the low. Barry O’Farrell has promised this will not be part of his Government (we’ll see on that one)
    So say what you will, I know who the real villians are here, and so does Rosie.

  23. Quoting Trueblue:
    “Andrew

    Personal attacks against a woman on the internet……sounds like a loser to me.”

    The person who has made more personal attacks than anyone is Rosie Bonham.

    Get it yet?

  24. As much as I enjoyed the stoush with Rosie, there is a very interesting development within this seat and it is in regards to the re-distribution that will be occuring during this term.

    Antony Green currently has Riverstone at 57,000 registered voters, which is well above the quota required for a seat. Furthermore, considering that this is expected to be a growth area, it can only get worse. I do believe that this seat and the seats immediately around it (Londonderry, Toongabbie, Blacktown, Mount Druitt and Hawkesbury) will be tossed and turned quite a bit to bring this number down.

    From talks I have heard, there have been suggestions of Riverstone simply getting smaller, with Blacktown, Mount Druitt, Londonderry and Toongabbie taking some of the votes away, or the possible absolishment of Toongabbie. I would like to know what people think of the situation there and what could be a viable alternative. But there is no doubt that Riverstone will undergo some pretty radical change.

  25. Hard to know what will happen, but I expect that the Windsor part of the electorate will be absorbed into Hawkesbury or Londonderry. Also, you would expect Dean Park and Marsden Park to possibly head to Mount Druitt, while Kellyville Ridge and Rouse Hill could go to Hawkesbury. Acacia Gardens and Glenwood possibly to Blacktown.

  26. There is no way that I want Glenwood to be part of Blacktown. After the neglect that took place for the local ALP candidate for Riverstone at the hands of ‘Robbo’, this would be a disaster in the making. Our area deserves better than that, and we should push to ensure that it remains embedded in the Riverstone electorate. As residents of the area, we should make our voice clear that we will not accept rezoning into that seat. Why?

    We do not need an egotist who, by one of the more reasonable long-standing ALP members, Paul Keating, has been described as fly-by-nighter representing our views. I pity the poor souls in Blacktown who have to put up with him for the next 4 years. He may have got in, but he would probably be the most disliked individual in the Legislative Assembly (even by his own party members) who have have to wear the fake smile of support.

  27. Impossible to know, there are many guidelines and objectives, but @ the end of the day they always ignore them all and just make the numbers add up. As to whether the move is north or South really depends on where the numbers are needed overall.

  28. Enrolment variations for the 2011 election:
    Riverstone +15%, Hawkesbury 3%, Londonderry -4.5%, Penrith -5.3%, Mulgoa -1%, Mount Druitt -3.2%, Blue Mountains -1%, Blacktown -0.9%, Toongabbie -1.3%
    Overall, ignoring potential quota growth, this bundle of seats is about right on where it should be.
    On these numbers, I would expect the Blue Mountains to extend to another suburb (Glenbrook) down the mountains, rather than any further west beyond the Mountains, Penrith to move towards taking all of Cranebrook from Londonderry, Londonderry to take Windsor and to lose parts of St Marys to Mt Druitt.

    Of course, this analysis only holds to the extent knock-on changes don’t come from elsewhere, or if there is a desire for these seats to be underweight for future residential growth…

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