Groom by-election, 2020

Cause of by-election
Sitting Liberal National MP John McVeigh announced his retirement in September 2020.

MarginLNP 20.5%

Geography
Groom covers the city of Toowoomba and rural areas to the west of the city contained entirely within Toowoomba Region council area.

History
Groom was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. The seat has always been held by Coalition MPs.

Groom was first won in 1984 by the National Party’s Tom McVeigh. McVeigh had been Member for Darling Downs since the 1972 election, and was elected Member for Groom in 1984 when Darling Downs was abolished. Darling Downs had previously centred on Toowoomba, which became the centre of the new seat of Groom.

McVeigh retired in 1988, triggering a by-election. The Liberal Party contested the by-election, and their candidate Bill Taylor outpolled the Nationals by 4.5% on primary votes and won a substantial majority on Labor preferences.

Taylor held the seat for a decade, retiring in 1998. The Nationals again challenged for the seat, but fell into fourth place behind Labor and One Nation, with the Liberal Party’s Ian Macfarlane winning the seat.

Macfarlane was made a junior minister in January 2001, and joined the Howard cabinet after the 2001 election as Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources, a role he held for the remainder of the Howard government. Macfarlane served as a frontbencher while the Coalition was in opposition, and as a cabinet minister during the Abbott government.

Macfarlane was dropped from the ministry when Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as Prime Minister. He attempted to switch from the Liberal party room to the Nationals party room, but the LNP state executive blocked the proposal.

Macfarlane retired at the 2016 election, and was replaced by John McVeigh, who won the seat easily. McVeigh had held the state electorate of Toowoomba South since 2012, but resigned from that state seat to contest the federal election.

McVeigh was re-elected in 2019, but resigned from parliament in September 2020.

Candidates

  • Garth Hamilton (Liberal National)

Assessment
Groom is a very safe LNP seat and should stay in LNP hands.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
John McVeigh Liberal National 50,90853.3-0.7
Troy Kay Labor 17,81118.7-3.5
David KingOne Nation12,49313.1+13.1
Alyce Nelligan Greens 7,5988.0+1.8
Kenneth LawUnited Australia3,7844.0+4.0
Perry AdreliusConservative National2,8543.0+3.0
Informal3,1603.2

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
John McVeigh Liberal National 67,27470.5+5.2
Troy Kay Labor 28,17429.5-5.2

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. A majority of the population lives in the Toowoomba, and these booths were split into two halves: north and south. The booths outside of the Toowoomba urban area have also been split into north and south.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 63.2% in Toowoomba North to 74.7% in the rural north.

Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Toowoomba North12.963.217,97018.8
Toowoomba South10.866.016,43617.2
North16.474.711,19311.7
South20.677.16,4916.8
Pre-poll11.571.426,81228.1
Other votes12.975.916,54617.3

Election results in Groom at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


Become a Patron!

25 COMMENTS

  1. roughly 2/3 Toowoomba Urban area and 1/3 rural surrounds the lnp vote exceeds 66% almost every where
    I wonder why the Two urban state seats have a much lower lnp vote?

  2. Groom wasn’t really a new seat in 1984. It was Darling Downs renamed to commemorate Littleton Groom and to reflect that the growth of Toowoomba meant that much of the actual Darling Downs was now outside the seat.

  3. I’ve heard the LNP won’t be finalising their pre-selection for Groom until after the state election. So any potential chance of holding the bye-election on the same day as the state election. As they similarly did with holding the South Brisbane bye-election during the Brisbane City Council elections in 2016. Is now confirmed as out of the question.

  4. One hardly needs to wait till after State Election to finalise candidates. A delay of a few days would result in it being to late to run two elections together. There would be significant logistic priblems with running both elections on same day. ECQ runs State Elections and AEC Federal elections. Rules for issuing ballot papers are not identical. ID requirement for State, ballot paper initialling for federal. Staff are probably same people but who would employ them. Which Act would take precedence. Handing out Frderal HTV without State ECQ approval would probably be illegal. No Approval normally required for Frderal HTV. My feeling is this would be chaotic and chaos leads to mistakes which lead to Court of Disputed Returns cases. Better to run seperately.

  5. Will likely be a ONP vs LNP Contest. It appears that the ALP will not field a candidate. often major parties don’t field a candidate in some of these very safe seats.

  6. Why does wikipedia say the Coalition has 77 seats when they really have 76? (for now) until at least the byelection is resolved and if ite because they think this is a certain hold. It isn’t but it is very likely ro be a Liberal hold I’d put a bet od 20$ on it. But as Antony once said. Anyone on the ballot paper can win.

  7. Wikipedia is hardly a work of Reference. Yesterday’s Draft House Hansard List of Members

    shows Groom as being Vacant but the party for this vacant seat is shown as LNP.
    If Hansard classifies the vacant MP as LNP then one can hardly blame Wilkipedia for being wrong.

  8. I looked at Hansard expecting to find that LNP member for Groom was paired with an ALP member but this does not appear to be case.

  9. David van Gend could blow this seat for the LNP, They could lose it, Saying Homosexuality is treatable and opposes abortion in almost all cases and calls Climate change a Hoax, will not win in Toowoomba, safe seat or not, it doesn’t matter. Everyone said Alabama was a safe senate seat for the GOP in 2017 but look where that went. and closer to home, everyone thought the LIBS would hold onto Wentworth at the by-election, look what happened again. He is not a generic LNP candidate he has controversies and has a real chance of losing to an Independent or maybe One Nation. if Labour stand the TPP could even be close. Toowoomba is conservative but not ”crazy” like this guy is. I am comparing David van Gend to Roy Moore.

  10. I have expressed view that we are better off with Palaszczuk than Frecklington but if I had a vote in Groom I would support Van Gend. My feeling is that Toowoomba is far more socially conservative than LNP generally.
    Van Gend’s economics have not been discussed but I suspect they are closer to Menzian -Fraser era Liberalism than modern neo-liberalism.

  11. @Daniel I know Toowoomba has a bit of a history with Christian Fundamentalists but I still heavily doubt they will pick somebody with such extreme views as those you mentioned. As you said the city is conservative but it’s not insane. If they were to nominate van Gend they’d risk blowing it and losing to an independent imo, although I’m not sure who’s eyeing a run in the by-election as of now. Fingers crossed they go with a half-decent and somewhat respectable candidate.

  12. Good to see that Guardian Newspaper reports that LNP have endorsed Van Gend.
    They need to get back to standing up to ALP not just abusing them

  13. Andrew, so his views on social issues don’t matter? I respect your opinion though.

    Even Tony Abbott never said anything as extreme as that even though Abbott is a staunch opponent of SSM, Although as i am also a British citizen i am happy to see him on the Brexit Trade board.

    While this seat isn’t JUST Toowoomba, Most of the population lives in it or it’s outer suburbs. Labour has had success in Toowoomba North prior to the Newmanslide and even in 2015 Labour only barely lost it. We will have to see who they endorse but i think this seat is no where near a lock for the LNP, IF they nominate an extremist, a generic Liberal should win comfortably however, But a generic candidate means someone without controversy typically. There was talk in the past of Campbell Newman entering state politics, and Groom might have been a seat he had considered in the past? but i think he decided against it. Newman would win the seat because he isn’t considered an extremist, And yes i believe Matt Canavan would have won here had he entered.

  14. If Van Gend is selected on Sunday, which I don’t believe is likely, this will create unnecessary distraction for Deb Frecklington in the last week of the election campaign, once again bringing attention to the divide between her and the party organisation. So this will be a test for new president Cynthia Hardy. I think to divert from this, plus also to prevent any independent or minor party challenge if Van Gend is selected they will chose a more moderate candidate such as Rebecca Vonhoff, who I believe is the frontrunner. It may be the case that David Van Gend is too conservative, even for Toowoomba-ites, but weirder things have happened.

  15. Roy Moore wasn’t ‘just’ very conservative, he was accused of sexually violating multiple underage women. He lost Alabama because he lost the support of the conservative Christian right that formed his base. I don’t know that Van Gend has been involved in anything like that. Groom is a conservative electorate. He may damage the LNP brand at large but climate denial and homophobia sell well enough on the Darling Downs. Opposing euthanasia might hurt him but I can’t see it making anywhere near enough difference. I mean the LNP has a 20 point margin. *Maybe* Katter’s party give him a run for his money but I doubt it.

  16. I tend to agree with Furtive Lawngnome, Roy Moore was completely different and to equate him to any politician in Australia is a low blow.

    As for Van Gend, he may be an extremist but in reality are his views any different from most Liberals.
    The Liberals raison d’être is ultimately one of homophobia, racism and climate denialism among many other things. I’m sure if you asked Morrison, Abbott, Andrews, Dutton, Abetz in private they would most likely agree with his views.

    This seat will most likely stay in LNP hands, maybe even a good showing by One Nation.

  17. Why do people vote for racism and/or homophobia then? Low education? Tradition? Denial? Social class? I hear everyone saying on the internet that Australia isn’t a conservative country and the LNP is like the USA Democrats. Is that really the case?

    The stuff I am reading the LNP is like the GOP, I get that we have Universal healthcare and we get free university upfront and then we pay when we work but if you look at the social and economic policies it seems to be like the GOP

    Australia as a whole is more (Liberal) than the US but to say the Coalition is like the US Democrats or even to the left of them is ridiculous. I don’t see conservative Democrats like Joe Manchin (who politically would be allot like Malcolm Turnbull here) say extreme stuff like some politicians in the coalition say.

    I thought the Liberal party was supposed to be the party of Menzies which was quite Centre compared to today, They might have been more like the Democrats, and with the electorate being more to the left than it was 50 years ago I am surprised they are going further to the Right, The reason we have the far-right rising in some places is because of immigration.

    And considering most people outside the United States including Australia even here in QLD oppose Trump, It surprises me allot of the LNP people embrace him. Come January ScoMo will have 1 less buddy on the world stage because I am predicting a Biden win 341-197 (Trump only wins OH,GA,TX for the Tossups) and a 53-47 Senate majority for the Democrats including 2 INDS) , I am interested in what you people are predicting for the US election even though it’s unlikely Ben will make a page for the US-election like he did in 2012 IICR.

  18. Daniel
    350 for Biden Very close to your prediction . Trump is heading for biggest defeat since Barry Goldwater.

    You are quite right about Menzies he supported or at least tolerated:
    compulsory
    🔴Concilliation and arbitration
    🔴Governmrnt owned and operated Enterprises
    🔴🔴Centralised Marketing of Agricultural Products
    🔴Regulation of economy Trade Practices Act
    🔴Never has a surplus budget
    🔴Governmrnt expenditure on infrastructure Beef Roads, Ord and continuation of Snowt Mountains but do not forget he also
    🔴supported criminality of sodomy, abortion and pornography.
    🔴strong enforcement ofQuarantine Laws
    David Van Gend would I think fit quite easily into Menzies era Liberal Party.
    It should be remembered that Menzies deserted the Liberal party in old age and voted DLP.

    Unfortunately I will be unable to help Van Gend due to a hip replacement operation but he is pre closely the sort of candidate who Would bring me back from position that I have at the moment which is Libs are as bad as ALP socially and worse economically.

  19. Unlikely Van Gend wins Guardian is just having a fit. He will drop out early in the preselection vote and his hardcore supporters are a block that will deliver the preselection to the winner (probably the councillor).

  20. The Christian right will lose Groom for the Liberals mark my words, this isn’t america, Tea party reoublicans can’t win here, pollbludger reports Van Gerd is the frontrunner for preselection

  21. Although I’d like to write him off, in the event that David van Gend is preselected for the Groom by-election, it’s fairly likely that he will win it. The region is much more conservative and religious than the national average, and Toowoomba in particular has been a hotspot for fundamentalist Christian movements in the past. Nobody stands a chance against the Liberals here bar a high-profile Independent, and I’ve seen nobody put their hands up. Whilst Australia is not the American South and religiosity has been in decline for some time here, that will not translate to a huge swing against the Liberals simply because they nominated somebody with archaic views.

    If people with the outspoken opinions of van Gend will win anywhere in this country, it will be in this area and the surrounds (Maranoa, New England, etc.)

    Rebecca Vonhoff seems to have the backing of Liberal party insiders and the Prime Minister, so I’m not particularly concerned at the moment. I suppose we’ll see the results soon enough though.

  22. As I stated, Van Gend was never winning. He has an influential voting block in that branch but not a huge voting block. He was never winning, but it created good ABC and Guardian alarm pieces.

  23. Good choice and thank God. Liberal retain now (i assume he is from the Liberals and not the Nats) probably will be 65/35 TPP if Labor ran so reverting back the 2019 margin to 2016. If not idk what the margin will be. Whether PHON will get a better count than what Labor usually does is a question. But would the Greens preference PHON? I don’t think so. Not only would it require every party to preference against the LNP but also for them to go under 50% primary both scenarios now being unforeseeable since the Liberals didn’t nominate a controversial candidate.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here